Since my beloved computer, Jerry, has been acting buggy for some time (we've had a lot of thunderstorms around here recently) the internet has not been an option; with out this heavy distraction to occupy my mind, I've been forced to pay attention to the world around me. As I was listening to the radio the other day when I heard them talking about oil. They don't really do this a lot anymore, as we all (in any case think) we know about big oil, I wouldn't pay attention to this, but this was not a station where you would hear about this. And they were talking about how oil is making record profits, and several large tumblers fell into place in my head.

Oil in any form is costing more.

This means that anything that uses oil is costing more.

This includes the boats that carry food to countries, the vehicles that carry it across continents, and the farmers who use it to power the machines that harvest their massive crops.

This means that all three of them are going to have to charge more to transport food.

This means that people are going to have to use more money to buy food.

This means that people are going to have less money to buy other things.

This means that it is very possible that Big Oil is directly responsible for the recession we are going through.

I am very open to the possibility (and hope to god that) I am wrong, but this makes sense to me.

And to the people who say we aren't going through a recession, when

a. entire countries are rioting because they can't afford food, and

b. my mother has to chose between groceries and electricity, there is something wrong.

Apologies if I've shattered your happy place. Perhaps you should crawl out and look at the world.

Solution, use less oil. The problem isn't really in developed nations; we don't starve if food prices rise, africans do.

The_Logician19:
Apologies if I've shattered your happy place. Perhaps you should crawl out and look at the world.

Just a wee bit patronising. I'm sure we're all conscious of these things.

Perhaps Big Oil is responsible for the recession we are nose-diving into. However, and I'll admit I'm no economist, I think Big Oil is also largely responsible for our having economies which can suffer recessions. There is no simple answer because it underpins our economy.

Once I've got enough money, I'm converting a nuclear bunker into a warm little self sufficient house and locking myself in. The world can do what it likes with Oil wars/ Zombie apocalypses.

Gigantor:

Once I've got enough money, I'm converting a nuclear bunker into a warm little self sufficient house and locking myself in. The world can do what it likes with Oil wars/ Zombie apocalypses.

I'll bring the booze.

[quote=Gigantor]
Perhaps Big Oil is responsible for the recession we are nose-diving into. However, and I'll admit I'm no economist, I think Big Oil is also largely responsible for our having economies which can suffer recessions. There is no simple answer because it underpins our economy.[quote]

I'm aware of this, and this is why it troubles me so much. My mind instantly reverted back to my history lesson about The Great Depression; it was a circle. Perhaps Oil is a circle too. And this troubles me, becasue if it is, then there is going to be war.

Apologies for the patronization, Gigantor. It wasn't intentional, I'm just feeling particularly cynical today.

The_Logician19:
[quote=Gigantor]
Perhaps Big Oil is responsible for the recession we are nose-diving into. However, and I'll admit I'm no economist, I think Big Oil is also largely responsible for our having economies which can suffer recessions. There is no simple answer because it underpins our economy.[quote]

I'm aware of this, and this is why it troubles me so much. My mind instantly reverted back to my history lesson about The Great Depression; it was a circle. Perhaps Oil is a circle too. And this troubles me, becasue if it is, then there is going to be war.

Apologies for the patronization, Gigantor. It wasn't intentional, I'm just feeling particularly cynical today.

No offense taken. I'm in a particularly good mood today, so the two moods were destined to clash.

I was wondering the other day: do you think there will come a point where the government will just say: "We need to invade Saudi-Arabia. We're not going to lie to you: they don't have any WMD's; they aren't harbouring terrorists. We just need their oil, and we can't afford to buy it from them. If you don't want to pay £100 to full up your car, we need an oil war."

There'll be a smattering of protests- some real, some token- then we'll invade. A worrying prospect. We'll see.

Gigantor:

Once I've got enough money, I'm converting a nuclear bunker into a warm little self sufficient house and locking myself in. The world can do what it likes with Oil wars/ Zombie apocalypses.

make sure you invite a few people (me) to give you some decent co-op/vs on games.

Gigantor:

The_Logician19:
[quote=Gigantor]
Perhaps Big Oil is responsible for the recession we are nose-diving into. However, and I'll admit I'm no economist, I think Big Oil is also largely responsible for our having economies which can suffer recessions. There is no simple answer because it underpins our economy.[quote]

I'm aware of this, and this is why it troubles me so much. My mind instantly reverted back to my history lesson about The Great Depression; it was a circle. Perhaps Oil is a circle too. And this troubles me, because if it is, then there is going to be war.

Apologies for the patronization, Gigantor. It wasn't intentional, I'm just feeling particularly cynical today.

No offense taken. I'm in a particularly good mood today, so the two moods were destined to clash.

I was wondering the other day: do you think there will come a point where the government will just say: "We need to invade Saudi-Arabia. We're not going to lie to you: they don't have any WMD's; they aren't harbouring terrorists. We just need their oil, and we can't afford to buy it from them. If you don't want to pay £100 to full up your car, we need an oil war."

There'll be a smattering of protests- some real, some token- then we'll invade. A worrying prospect. We'll see.

unfortunately (i would want to see that happen) but it wont because
A the current party would be removed from government
B the amount of oil it would take to power the planes/tanks/jeeps needed to invade a country would soon out way the gain if it went on for too long
C by the time the government will admit to that kind of fault zombies will rule the earth.

P.S. sorry for the double post.

Mmhmm. Food is costing more and more, but luckily here in Ontario our cost of living vs. average income is low.

One thing that has impacted me more, and for the better, is that offshore labour is going to lose it's edge. I work for a company that manufactures steel product, and we started having some standard parts made in Vietnam. Since the spike in oil prices, the cost for a container has gone up rougly 12%. If the trend continues, it might flip the stanglehold that offshore manufacturing has and put more money in people's pockets via higher employment for trades such as welding.

Ultimately, yes it sucks and it's costing people money, but I'm taking the bad with the good and am going to struggle through while I sit back and watch.

Gigantor:

I was wondering the other day: do you think there will come a point where the government will just say: "We need to invade Saudi-Arabia. We're not going to lie to you: they don't have any WMD's; they aren't harbouring terrorists. We just need their oil, and we can't afford to buy it from them. If you don't want to pay £100 to full up your car, we need an oil war."

America already has established military bases in Saudi Arabia. They're there for 'protection'.

Gigantor:

I was wondering the other day: do you think there will come a point where the government will just say: "We need to invade Saudi-Arabia. We're not going to lie to you: they don't have any WMD's; they aren't harbouring terrorists. We just need their oil, and we can't afford to buy it from them. If you don't want to pay £100 to full up your car, we need an oil war."

If I belived that was going to happen, then I would actively be taking steps to stop it. As it is, I don't belive that the majority of people would let that happen. If they told you to go to war so someone else doesn't have to pay (what is it) $167 for gas, you'd tell them to f*** off, wouldn't you? I would.

The difference is, when I was done with that, I'd politely ask everyone else to tell them to f*** off. And they'd probobly listen to me, becasuse I'm only suggesting what they've been thinking about for the past month. And then all hell would break loose.

Apologies for suggesting avoididing a draft. There, I came right out and said it. If they tell you to go across the world and kill innocent people for oil, beat the crap out of the people who came to get you and hide. And find other people like you. Call it civil disobedience.

Larenxis:
America already has established military bases in Saudi Arabia. They're there for 'protection'.

Since you placed scare quotes around "protection" I'll assume you think we're there to steal Saudi Arabia's oil, that you are too young to remember the Saudis going batshit when Saddam invaded Kuwait, and that you are unaware that the bulk of US oil comes from Canada and Mexico. But since light sweet crude is currently $134.01 even though we have bases there for 'protection', doesn't that make you wonder even a little bit about the evil ol' USA's intentions?

The_Logician19:
Since my beloved computer, Jerry, has been acting buggy for some time (we've had a lot of thunderstorms around here recently) the internet has not been an option; with out this heavy distraction to occupy my mind, I've been forced to pay attention to the world around me. As I was listening to the radio the other day when I heard them talking about oil. They don't really do this a lot anymore, as we all (in any case think) we know about big oil, I wouldn't pay attention to this, but this was not a station where you would hear about this. And they were talking about how oil is making record profits, and several large tumblers fell into place in my head.

Oil in any form is costing more.

This means that anything that uses oil is costing more.

This includes the boats that carry food to countries, the vehicles that carry it across continents, and the farmers who use it to power the machines that harvest their massive crops.

This means that all three of them are going to have to charge more to transport food.

This means that people are going to have to use more money to buy food.

This means that people are going to have less money to buy other things.

This means that it is very possible that Big Oil is directly responsible for the recession we are going through.

I am very open to the possibility (and hope to god that) I am wrong, but this makes sense to me.

And to the people who say we aren't going through a recession, when

a. entire countries are rioting because they can't afford food, and

b. my mother has to chose between groceries and electricity, there is something wrong.

Apologies if I've shattered your happy place. Perhaps you should crawl out and look at the world.

We (the USA) are not in a recession because that has a very specific meaning - it's two successive quarters of negative growth. So far in recent years we've had NO quarters of negative growth. We are in a period of high inflation, which is camouflaged because the core inflation rate is figured without the volatile energy and food prices. But if you're poor, energy and food prices are what affect you the most and probably what you can least afford to cut.

The world is a different matter. Poor in the Third World and poorer Old and New World countries are really getting the shaft, because (as Sammyfreak said) our decisions are largely between energy and food on the one hand, and non-essentials like new clothes, iPods, CDs, etc. Most of us don't really understand true poverty, where the decision is food today or food tomorrow; you WILL go hungry one or the other. Much of the world, even in countries with abundant natural resources, are at this level and drastically affected when food prices jump like this. This is made worse because much of the world turns on selling things to the USA - and we've been buying on credit for the last forty-odd years. It's also worse because of our new passion for using food for fuel. Works great for Brazil using sugar cane; works terrible using corn in more temperate climes. And to compound the US problem we stupidly ban Brazilian sugar cane and ethanol imports to protect US business with no business (pun intended) making fuel from corn, using nearly as much or more (depending on whose numbers you believe) petroleum as it replaces and drawing down water tables.

The bitch of it is, the USA has abundant oil and natural gas resources. Cuba has contracted with China to explore for oil off the coast of Florida where US companies are forbidden to drill. Within a decade the Florida coastline will have oil rigs; they'll just be Chinese.

The American lifestyle is about to take a big hit, though. We simply can't continue to use as much oil as we have been using with demand growing so quickly in China and India, especially with our level of importation. We could drill our own oil and natural gas reserves and convert our oil shales to liquid oil and continue our lifestyle for a few decades, but the end is nigh; either we move to another energy model, or we become a high-density, public mass transit society like most of the world.

Anyway, good to see you back even if you're feeling particularly cynical today.

I had a friend tell me once that America actually has a lot of oil that's found right here in America but that we export it instead of keeping it. If anybody knows if this is true, I'd like to know. That friend is generally a great source of valid information so I'm tempted to trust it, but haven't been able to find much support for it.

BlazeTheVampire:
I had a friend tell me once that America actually has a lot of oil that's found right here in America but that we export it instead of keeping it. If anybody knows if this is true, I'd like to know. That friend is generally a great source of valid information so I'm tempted to trust it, but haven't been able to find much support for it.

The Alaskan reserves' oil was originally required by law to remain in the USA, but the law was later changed to allow it to be sold to Japan. For some reason we guaranteed Japan's oil supply at below market price; I can't imagine why since we had a huge trade deficit at the time. I don't know if that's still true.

Most of the crude oil produced in the USA is refined and used in the USA simply because of market forces - since the price for crude is set by the market and is the same for all net consumers, it doesn't generally make sense to ship it elsewhere. And we can't really insist that all oil produced in the USA stays in the USA while expecting to buy the needed excess from other countries.

Anyway, last I saw the USA is expected to produce about 8 billion barrels per day, consume about 20 billion barrels per day, import about 13 billion barrels per day, and export about 1 billion barrels per day in 2008. Kind of boggles the mind. One reason for importing and exporting the same thing is that different kinds of crude are best refined into different kinds of petroleum products; another may be that spot differences in market prices could make it worth shipping oil (or at least a particular kind of oil) to another country at a particular time. Hell, people even speculate on and trade in money itself due to spot differences in market prices between currencies!

And I wouldn't totally discount Enron-style trading; for tax purposes it might work out better for a company to sell its own oil out of the country while buying the same product if it had a lot of expenses to write off. That way you write off the expenses against the oil production's relatively large profit, while your taxable profit on refined products (e.g. gas and diesel) is smaller due to the higher cost of buying crude versus refining your own crude. Not saying it's happening, but I wouldn't be surprised.

Here are some interesting links.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/STEO_Query/steotables.cfm?periodType=Annual&startYear=2005&startMonth=1&endYear=2009&endMonth=12&tableNumber=6

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/STEO_Query/steotables.cfm?periodType=Annual&startYear=2005&startMonth=1&endYear=2009&endMonth=12&tableNumber=9

EDIT: I should have added that the USA has huge reserves of oil and natural gas that buy law we are not allowed to tap. Look at a map of the areas off limits to the oil industry in the USA and then in Canada and you'll quickly see why Canada is a net exporter and the US is a net importer.

I go home now.

Ok, some things to be aware of regarding oil and oil prices, and the fallout caused by such prices...

The oil industry has morphed into a form of market for which we have no name or economic measure for. Every simpleton knows of supply and demand, in its most basic form, something in short supply with high demand will cost more than something plentiful with little demand. I'm not going to regurgitate all the crap from my economics course, but put plainly, neither supply nor demand for oil are properly tied to the price.

The supply for oil is artificially manipulated. About three or four years ago, the prices spiked to record highs. As the market was beginning to level back down to the former prices, Big Oil decided they didn't want the price to go back down so they cut production drastically. There is no shortage of oil, they just aren't pumping it out. So long as they can keep pumped crude supply low, the price can't drop.

The price for oil goes up and down based on potential risks and cost increases, which is sick because what costs $20 a barrel on a normal day goes to $40 a barrel if a conflict or disaster happens. This price increase is on the possibility that it might cost more to acquire the crude, not on whether or not it actually does cost them any extra. The fact is, the true cost to acquire crude oil has not increased at all in over ten years. When you were paying $0.49 a litre, it cost them the same for that gasoline as it does today.

But they have us by the short hairs, because all our solutions to high gas prices only compound the problem. If we cut fuel usage in half overnight, Big Oil will double the pump price to match. The less we use, the more they'll charge for it because they won't step away from their absurd profits. There is no solution. Well, murdering people who work at corporate levels in oil companies is the only true solution but it's not going to happen.

The_Logician19:

This means that it is very possible that Big Oil is directly responsible for the recession we are going through.

actually the subprime mortgage crash probly also has a big thing to do with the recession as well.

however big oil is having an effect on car production and sales

BlazeTheVampire:
I had a friend tell me once that America actually has a lot of oil that's found right here in America but that we export it instead of keeping it. If anybody knows if this is true, I'd like to know. That friend is generally a great source of valid information so I'm tempted to trust it, but haven't been able to find much support for it.

It IS true... At least according to some of the books I have read... And we CAN'T access our biggest oil deposit, it is in Alaska...

Its called Oilmageddon my friends (term "friends" used lightly)

Darth Mobius:

BlazeTheVampire:
I had a friend tell me once that America actually has a lot of oil that's found right here in America but that we export it instead of keeping it. If anybody knows if this is true, I'd like to know. That friend is generally a great source of valid information so I'm tempted to trust it, but haven't been able to find much support for it.

It IS true... At least according to some of the books I have read... And we CAN'T access our biggest oil deposit, it is in Alaska...

You do Export to us (Canada) and we Export to you. Its cheaper than sending it cross state/province.

If the tech gets any better or the price really skyrockets, it will become economically feasible to start drilling in the far north where there are vast amounts of oil trapped in the permafrost. And I always sort of took what you're saying for granted, I guess it's because my parents talk about that kind of stuff a lot.

Gigantor:

Once I've got enough money, I'm converting a nuclear bunker into a warm little self sufficient house and locking myself in. The world can do what it likes with Oil wars/ Zombie apocalypses.

You my friend, are thinking with my thoughts. And I would like them returned.

By the way, according to Wikithing, America has access to huge amounts of oil shale. Apparently, it's like... crap oil which is really hard to get to because its full of sludge and crap.
It's not JUST big oil apparently. *APPARENTLY* it's also some buggers buying the oil futures and pushing up the prices suddenly, as there's no actual shortage just yet. Sadly, most people only give a sh*t when things actually start to affect THEM. At least by then I'll be in my solar poward tentmobile, laughing in a manner not too different from Snake from The Simpsons, while they bitch about the cost of traveling 60 miles a day to work and back in their stupid fat faced cars.
I'm a cyclist, so yeah.

Oh, also. Every car that is produced (mining for metal, shaping, putting together etc) creates around 10 times as much pollution as that car would ever release in its lifetime. People buying hybrids are actually creating craploads more fumes than they would just sticking with their old car.

Tru dat. According to some BBC thing I read once anyway.

Well my solution is simple, fun, and unfortunately still a year or two away...

I'm buyin a scooter next summer or the one following. I'll still use my Matrix when I need to, but if the forecast is for sun, I'm scooter'ing to work.

The_Logician19:

Gigantor:

I was wondering the other day: do you think there will come a point where the government will just say: "We need to invade Saudi-Arabia. We're not going to lie to you: they don't have any WMD's; they aren't harbouring terrorists. We just need their oil, and we can't afford to buy it from them. If you don't want to pay £100 to full up your car, we need an oil war."

If I belived that was going to happen, then I would actively be taking steps to stop it. As it is, I don't belive that the majority of people would let that happen. If they told you to go to war so someone else doesn't have to pay (what is it) $167 for gas, you'd tell them to f*** off, wouldn't you? I would.

The difference is, when I was done with that, I'd politely ask everyone else to tell them to f*** off. And they'd probobly listen to me, becasuse I'm only suggesting what they've been thinking about for the past month. And then all hell would break loose.

Apologies for suggesting avoididing a draft. There, I came right out and said it. If they tell you to go across the world and kill innocent people for oil, beat the crap out of the people who came to get you and hide. And find other people like you. Call it civil disobedience.

The thing about oil is that it underpins the price of everything. It's liquid energy- the cheapest form we can lay our hands on- and everything that makes our nice little First World economy go round. When oil really starts running out (peak oil) then one of our smallest problems will be that we need to ptake public transportation.
Oil helps us create and transport the massive quantities of food that would seem fantasy to a pre-Industrial economy. Oil is part of those lovely plastics that I defy you to not find in abundance in your room right now. Oil transports everything.
I'm not trying to talk down to you, Logician, and I'm sure you know all of this. I'm just underlining that if the US occupies the Saudi oil fields when push comes to shove it won't be because people want cheap oil at the pump, it'll be to cushion a depression that probably makes the Great one look like a few businesses shutting down. If you lack any sense of self interest- a true altruist- I'll applaud your moral opposition to the war; but I don't expect it and I won't blame anyone who doesn't feel the same.

I hate big oil companies, they are destroying America!
not only that, but the big oil companys EVEN control the hydrogen fuel business. they are making sure that the way used to produce hydrogen is just as oil consuming as gas, resulting in there being very little difference in hydrogen fuel vs gasoline in usage of oil and emissions. they are even buying up any and all companys that try researching ways of producing hydrogen so that THEY will stay in control. hydrogen could save this country's economy, but the oil companys are willingly screwing over america just so they can get even richer!
http://www.motherjones.com/news/outfront/2003/05/ma_375_01.html [Hydrogen's Dirty Secret]

tthor:
I hate big oil companies, they are destroying America!

Lol that's not a hyperbole

shatnershaman:

tthor:
I hate big oil companies, they are destroying America!

Lol that's not a hyperbole

and? is there a PROBLEM with not having hyperboles?lol