Serial Killer Round 82: Night of the Hunt (Closed, Cycle 7)

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SupahEwok:
Come now, people, let's not be base beasts. We are above the mongrels of the dirt by several qualities, among them math. Let's do some.

If we all went mad and killed each other off, with only 1/23 players left standing, that's a 22/23 chance of the Beast dying right now, or 95.652173913%. Now, I don't know about you gents, but I think those are pretty phenomenal odds.

Just to be a nice person, i'ma tell you right now by doing that- you guys will very likely lose actually.

When someone asks for insight, they aren't automatically given 20 insight. It's random through the d20 roller, so if everyone's asking for insight per cycle, you will likely only get a few people who are MAD, and the chances of them killing The Beast is slim compared to them killing off all the citizens on top of The Beast killing people too. So you have several deaths per cycle which will cause your chances of winning to drop significantly since you guys also have to vote off the MAD to stop them from killing people every cycle.

Let's say cycle 2 you get 3 people who are MAD now because they went over 20 insight. Oh look, it'll take 3 cycles for you guys to kill them off as they take someone per cycle on top of the murderer killing people. By the time you get enough people MAD, you've lost so many good people that all the murderer has to do is just finish off whoever isn't MAD. Sure, you guys could get lucky and have a MAD kill off The Beast but again, it's so poor compared to losing important people.

Overall, it's a flawed strategy, and if needed to- The Beast could just kill those who are MAD to prevent him or herself from getting randomly killed off, so you will lose innocents in the cycles overtime which would hurt you guys in the long run to a big degree.

Caramel Frappe:

SupahEwok:
Come now, people, let's not be base beasts. We are above the mongrels of the dirt by several qualities, among them math. Let's do some.

If we all went mad and killed each other off, with only 1/23 players left standing, that's a 22/23 chance of the Beast dying right now, or 95.652173913%. Now, I don't know about you gents, but I think those are pretty phenomenal odds.

Just to be a nice person, i'ma tell you right now by doing that- you guys will very likely lose actually.

When someone asks for insight, they aren't automatically given 20 insight. It's random through the d20 roller, so if everyone's asking for insight per cycle, you will likely only get a few people who are MAD, and the chances of them killing The Beast is slim compared to them killing off all the citizens on top of The Beast killing people too. So you have several deaths per cycle which will cause your chances of winning to drop significantly since you guys also have to vote off the MAD to stop them from killing people every cycle.

Let's say cycle 2 you get 3 people who are MAD now because they went over 20 insight. Oh look, it'll take 3 cycles for you guys to kill them off as they take someone per cycle on top of the murderer killing people. By the time you get enough people MAD, you've lost so many good people that all the murderer has to do is just finish off whoever isn't MAD. Sure, you guys could get lucky and have a MAD kill off The Beast but again, it's so poor compared to losing important people.

Overall, it's a flawed strategy, and if needed to- The Beast could just kill those who are MAD to prevent him or herself from getting randomly killed off, so you will lose innocents in the cycles overtime which would hurt you guys in the long run to a big degree.

Hmmm...
So what you're saying is that we should wait enough rounds to let our Insight build naturally and choose our time wisely. This requires further thought. What is the ideal time, I wonder?

MiskWisk:

Hmmm...
So what you're saying is that we should wait enough rounds to let our Insight build naturally and choose our time wisely. This requires further thought. What is the ideal time, I wonder?

OOORRRR... Designate one person to be an Insight sacrifice for the information so the damage is minimized. Like I've said about a gazillion times. Since I only have 1 Insight right now and many others already have more, I may not be the best choice now for that but someone needs to do it.

Also don't forget that Insight can be removed by the Doll so she is able to minimize everyone's Insight while the sacrifice takes the heat.

Arnoxthe1:

MiskWisk:

Hmmm...
So what you're saying is that we should wait enough rounds to let our Insight build naturally and choose our time wisely. This requires further thought. What is the ideal time, I wonder?

OOORRRR... Designate one person to be an Insight sacrifice for the information so the damage is minimized. Like I've said about a gazillion times. Since I only have 1 Insight right now and many others already have more, I may not be the best choice now for that but someone needs to do it.

Also don't forget that Insight can be removed by the Doll so she is able to minimize everyone's Insight while the sacrifice takes the heat.

But what if tf2godz was the doll?

My banana will only do so much against crazy!!! Isn't that right banana?

tippy2k2 covers his mouth and changes to a higher pitched voice: "That's right tippy2k2!"

You're so smart banana!

Wait...am I crazy? No...banana would have told me if I was crazy.

tippy2k2:
But what if tf2godz was the doll?

My banana will only do so much against crazy!!! Isn't that right banana?

tippy2k2 covers his mouth and changes to a higher pitched voice: "That's right tippy2k2!"

You're so smart banana!

Wait...am I crazy? No...banana would have told me if I was crazy.

Anyone who is killed who has a role will be announced.

Arnoxthe1:
Anyone who is killed who has a role will be announced.

Oh...Yah!

Come banana! We don't have a lot of information so I guess we'll just choose a random person to murder and hope it worked out.

I would also like to take this time before the vote to remind everyone that if I go down, banana goes down too...

MiskWisk:

So what you're saying is that we should wait enough rounds to let our Insight build naturally and choose our time wisely. This requires further thought. What is the ideal time, I wonder?

That's going to be my strategy... for now.

Biding my time until the time is right.

tippy2k2:
I would also like to take this time before the vote to remind everyone that if I go down, banana goes down too...

Every individual is treated separately. Just because Frappe hasn't updated the player list, doesn't mean you can drag someone down with you.

Thunderous Cacophony:

tippy2k2:
I would also like to take this time before the vote to remind everyone that if I go down, banana goes down too...

Every individual is treated separately. Just because Frappe hasn't updated the player list, doesn't mean you can drag someone down with you.

Finally cast my vote, sorry for the delay, the joys of being a employed adult being what they are.

*sigh*...seemed like only a few months ago I was a lazy git who spent all his time on the internet...which was exactly how long ago it was since that was the case...

Reminder that you guys need to send your votes in before the timer runs out.

08/03/2017 12:00 AM UTC

A ghost of a triceratops appeared in front of the other hunters. "This is like the third time in a row I died in the first round, fuck you guys I'm haunting you with science."

tf2godz:
A ghost of a triceratops appeared in front of the other hunters. "This is like the third time in a row I died in the first round, fuck you guys I'm haunting you with science."

I don't know why they keep going for you ... then again, I remember most people back in the day would execute me early on because I was well known so being well known = had to be the Killer.

Didn't make as much sense as when one of the players got murdered, then everyone executed his boyfriend because "Oh the boyfriend is the Killer and they staged it!" but were totally wrong. Yes, I still have some issues with people's logic in this game.

Maybe we can make a rule next game. No killing tf2godz for at least two cycles. It is pretty ridiculous. XP

Or better yet, he can be the SK and exert revenge. Maybe both.

tf2godz:
A ghost of a triceratops appeared in front of the other hunters. "This is like the third time in a row I died in the first round, fuck you guys I'm haunting you with science."

Hey it beats the one time I was in Serial Killer. I honestly forgot that I was in the game, people starting to suspect me because I was so quiet, and then I was the third murdered.

tf2godz:
A ghost of a triceratops appeared in front of the other hunters. "This is like the third time in a row I died in the first round, fuck you guys I'm haunting you with science."

Dear God! A white sheet!

*rolls dice for sanity check*

Caramel Frappe:

tf2godz:
A ghost of a triceratops appeared in front of the other hunters. "This is like the third time in a row I died in the first round, fuck you guys I'm haunting you with science."

I don't know why they keep going for you.

It like they think a zombie Nazi super villain Triceratops scientist is untrustworthy or something

Arnoxthe1:
Or better yet, he can be the SK and exert revenge. Maybe both.

But then I would be killed in the first voting cycle like last time and then it would be a really short game :(

Arnoxthe1:

MiskWisk:

Hmmm...
So what you're saying is that we should wait enough rounds to let our Insight build naturally and choose our time wisely. This requires further thought. What is the ideal time, I wonder?

OOORRRR... Designate one person to be an Insight sacrifice for the information so the damage is minimized. Like I've said about a gazillion times. Since I only have 1 Insight right now and many others already have more, I may not be the best choice now for that but someone needs to do it.

Also don't forget that Insight can be removed by the Doll so she is able to minimize everyone's Insight while the sacrifice takes the heat.

image

tf2godz:

But then I would be killed in the first voting cycle like last time and then it would be a really short game :(

Fine. Then how about this. If tf2godz is killed within the first 2-3 cycles, his vote for who gets murdered is worth 1-2 extra points. Permanent until next game.

Gauche:
image

That sounds about right. Looks like I'm gonna get sacrificed after all. XP

GAUCHE'S IMPENDING INSANITY EDIT: Welp, it was nice knowing you.

And we're back to the age old question: is it more suspicious to be quiet or loud?

Which, given it's the first round, is really all we have to go on.

Gauche:

Arnoxthe1:

MiskWisk:

Hmmm...
So what you're saying is that we should wait enough rounds to let our Insight build naturally and choose our time wisely. This requires further thought. What is the ideal time, I wonder?

OOORRRR... Designate one person to be an Insight sacrifice for the information so the damage is minimized. Like I've said about a gazillion times. Since I only have 1 Insight right now and many others already have more, I may not be the best choice now for that but someone needs to do it.

Also don't forget that Insight can be removed by the Doll so she is able to minimize everyone's Insight while the sacrifice takes the heat.

image

image
I certainly don't like the looks of this.

Edit: Also, are the pictures annoying? I can stop taking up room in the thread with them I'm just having fun finding appropriate batman and Hugh Jackman pictures.

Caramel Frappe:

Hmm I've been wondering about this since last night but I think this might not be as high risk a move as you say it is. Considering the mad are just as likely to off their fellow Hunters as they are to off others afflicted in the same fashion as well as the beast and granted there doesn't seem to be any restrictions to them as normal hunters (apart from losing their role if they had one) meaning that they still can vote and share information, they're still a higher threat to the beast than their fellow hunters.

Granted there will likely be a number of random innocents killed if a MAD person/s is/are left alive, as the number of hunters decrease the Mad hunters become a more significant threat to the beast (and themselves) as they risk being randomly killed by every single Mad hunter that has been left alive that cycle. Which technically means the safer bet would be the rest of the hunters voting another potential beast suspect instead of a known Mad Hunter as they have a higher chance of eliminating the beast if their vote does not with a second random kill every cycle. Not to mention the risk may force the beast into dealing with the Mad Hunter that cycle so that it doesn't get a chance at killing them which is essentially sacrificing one of the hunters to save the rest and enabling them to continue voting on suspicious hunters.

Of course this completely ignores the possibility of the Beast going Mad and essentially "disguising" themselves as a Mad Hunter to avoid being voted on at this point. Although that does increase their risk of dying as they can no longer directly counter other Mad Hunters by choosing who to kill at the start of every cycle and the other Hunters may start randomly voting off Mad Hunters at any time.
A completely unrelated question but does the Doll removing insight from a player and bringing them below 20 cause them to no longer be Mad or is Mad a permanent state after hitting that stat point?

altnameJag:
And we're back to the age old question: is it more suspicious to be quiet or loud?

Which, given it's the first round, is really all we have to go on.

Both I'd say but that perception should shift as the rounds continue.

@Caramel: What does it mean when someone's name is all weird on the player list? Something to do with insight?

JUMBO PALACE:
image
I certainly don't like the looks of this.

Edit: Also, are the pictures annoying? I can stop taking up room in the thread with them I'm just having fun finding appropriate batman and Hugh Jackman pictures.

What? Hell no, pictures and GIFs is what breathes life into a thread my friend. Don't you let anyone say they're annoying- people do them all the time for a reason on Reddit, Tumblr, Facebook, ect. (Seriously it's not annoying trust me).

Aerosteam:
@Caramel: What does it mean when someone's name is all weird on the player list? Something to do with insight?

Yea, I mean look at their insight- they're almost at 20 lol.

Nile McMorrow:
A completely unrelated question but does the Doll removing insight from a player and bringing them below 20 cause them to no longer be Mad or is Mad a permanent state after hitting that stat point?

Yes, it will stop them from going MAD but keep in mind if it comes to the execution stage ... even if cured, if people send their votes in for that person- he or she will still be executed so it depends on whom acts faster.

So, hang on. How does Insight affect the killer? The rules only say that Hunters can intentionally take it. Could we all just take an Insight hit, last one out is the Killer?

Caramel Frappe:

SupahEwok:
Come now, people, let's not be base beasts. We are above the mongrels of the dirt by several qualities, among them math. Let's do some.

If we all went mad and killed each other off, with only 1/23 players left standing, that's a 22/23 chance of the Beast dying right now, or 95.652173913%. Now, I don't know about you gents, but I think those are pretty phenomenal odds.

Just to be a nice person, i'ma tell you right now by doing that- you guys will very likely lose actually.

When someone asks for insight, they aren't automatically given 20 insight. It's random through the d20 roller, so if everyone's asking for insight per cycle, you will likely only get a few people who are MAD, and the chances of them killing The Beast is slim compared to them killing off all the citizens on top of The Beast killing people too. So you have several deaths per cycle which will cause your chances of winning to drop significantly since you guys also have to vote off the MAD to stop them from killing people every cycle.

Let's say cycle 2 you get 3 people who are MAD now because they went over 20 insight. Oh look, it'll take 3 cycles for you guys to kill them off as they take someone per cycle on top of the murderer killing people. By the time you get enough people MAD, you've lost so many good people that all the murderer has to do is just finish off whoever isn't MAD. Sure, you guys could get lucky and have a MAD kill off The Beast but again, it's so poor compared to losing important people.

Overall, it's a flawed strategy, and if needed to- The Beast could just kill those who are MAD to prevent him or herself from getting randomly killed off, so you will lose innocents in the cycles overtime which would hurt you guys in the long run to a big degree.

You aren't overly familiar with my kind of sarcasm, are ya champ.

Nile McMorrow:

Caramel Frappe:

Hmm I've been wondering about this since last night but I think this might not be as high risk a move as you say it is. Considering the mad are just as likely to off their fellow Hunters as they are to off others afflicted in the same fashion as well as the beast and granted there doesn't seem to be any restrictions to them as normal hunters (apart from losing their role if they had one) meaning that they still can vote and share information, they're still a higher threat to the beast than their fellow hunters.

Granted there will likely be a number of random innocents killed if a MAD person/s is/are left alive, as the number of hunters decrease the Mad hunters become a more significant threat to the beast (and themselves) as they risk being randomly killed by every single Mad hunter that has been left alive that cycle. Which technically means the safer bet would be the rest of the hunters voting another potential beast suspect instead of a known Mad Hunter as they have a higher chance of eliminating the beast if their vote does not with a second random kill every cycle. Not to mention the risk may force the beast into dealing with the Mad Hunter that cycle so that it doesn't get a chance at killing them which is essentially sacrificing one of the hunters to save the rest and enabling them to continue voting on suspicious hunters.

Of course this completely ignores the possibility of the Beast going Mad and essentially "disguising" themselves as a Mad Hunter to avoid being voted on at this point. Although that does increase their risk of dying as they can no longer directly counter other Mad Hunters by choosing who to kill at the start of every cycle and the other Hunters may start randomly voting off Mad Hunters at any time.
A completely unrelated question but does the Doll removing insight from a player and bringing them below 20 cause them to no longer be Mad or is Mad a permanent state after hitting that stat point?

To go off of this then- should we all decide that a select few people get some additional insight? We don't even have to go all the way into madness territory- but a few hints, especially now when early in the game we have very little info could be helpful.

SupahEwok:
So, hang on. How does Insight affect the killer? The rules only say that Hunters can intentionally take it. Could we all just take an Insight hit, last one out is the Killer?

image

SupahEwok:
So, hang on. How does Insight affect the killer? The rules only say that Hunters can intentionally take it. Could we all just take an Insight hit, last one out is the Killer?

Anyone from The Hunters or those with a role can request The Great One (aka PMing the GM) for additional insight...

So everyone, including the Beast, can get Insight. What it does for them is unclear, but I'm not entirely sure what it does for us Hunters either (I can't actually read Gauche's font, for my eyes are as old as they are sane). Possibly it would point him towards the Doll, or the other helpful roles?

One thing's for sure though. We need to get a move on here. We're still at Cycle 1 FFS. lol Let's get this party started already.

SupahEwok:
So, hang on. How does Insight affect the killer? The rules only say that Hunters can intentionally take it. Could we all just take an Insight hit, last one out is the Killer?

The Beast can also go MAD too but it'd be risky for him / her obviously, since an announcement would be made of the user going MAD.

You aren't overly familiar with my kind of sarcasm, are ya champ.

It's hard to on the internet sometimes. What could be sarcasm could also be legit sincerity. My apologies.

Thunderous Cacophony:

SupahEwok:
So, hang on. How does Insight affect the killer? The rules only say that Hunters can intentionally take it. Could we all just take an Insight hit, last one out is the Killer?

Anyone from The Hunters or those with a role can request The Great One (aka PMing the GM) for additional insight...

So everyone, including the Beast, can get Insight. What it does for them is unclear, but I'm not entirely sure what it does for us Hunters either (I can't actually read Gauche's font, for my eyes are as old as they are sane). Possibly it would point him towards the Doll, or the other helpful roles?

I think 3 4 insight [tweakers?] would be fine
Optimally one per round requests the Insight so we can prevent RNG royally biting us with multiple 20 rolls
This prevents the Beast from killing the sole [harvester?]
Anymore than that and we are seriously asking for trouble doubly so if The Doll gets whacked

The Beast needs all the help they can get though considering the player pool size
On that note

Hit me with some insight Great One
Please gods save me save me oh god

Couple words I'm iffy on but I think the general message gets across.

Caramel Frappe:
Yes, it will stop them from going MAD but keep in mind if it comes to the execution stage ... even if cured, if people send their votes in for that person- he or she will still be executed so it depends on whom acts faster.

Hmm I'm finally seeing exactly how powerful the Doll could be.

SupahEwok:
So, hang on. How does Insight affect the killer? The rules only say that Hunters can intentionally take it. Could we all just take an Insight hit, last one out is the Killer?

Thunderous Cacophony:
So everyone, including the Beast, can get Insight. What it does for them is unclear, but I'm not entirely sure what it does for us Hunters either (I can't actually read Gauche's font, for my eyes are as old as they are sane). Possibly it would point him towards the Doll, or the other helpful roles?

As I understand it with more insight the beast has a higher chance of getting hints towards which of the Hunters have a role that counter them or could assist the other Hunters in deducing who they are which is the benefit of asking for some more to offset the risk of getting gibberish chanting or going mad and losing their ability to choose who they kill each cycle (not 100% on this). Although it's certainly less beneficial to the beast than it is to the rest of the hunters, they still can use it to their advantage. Also even if we did all ask for insight and one person did not there's still a higher chance of them not being the beast than being the traitor.

JUMBO PALACE:
To go off of this then- should we all decide that a select few people get some additional insight? We don't even have to go all the way into madness territory- but a few hints, especially now when early in the game we have very little info could be helpful.

To be frank, I'm not sure. Because we are very early in the game, I have a feeling that if too many people gain too much insight we may be skewing the chance we have in deducing who the Beast is in their favour. After all the hints we get from insight won't necessarily be 100% truth and could very easily distract us towards false targets which would be in the beast's favour. Plus my theory only really works a little later on when the beast has a chance of suffering a death at the hands of a Mad Hunter or being killed after purposely making themselves Mad to try and hide themselves due to a smaller pool of hunters looking for the beast. Essentially our risk goes down and the beast's risk rises as more of us get killed.

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