Brexit Negotiations

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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/09/david-davis-complains-of-eu-discrimination-in-leaked-letter

David Davis's claim in a leaked letter to the prime minister that the EU is discriminating against the UK and damaging its economic interests by preparing for a no-deal scenario in March 2019 has been met with flat denials and accusations of hypocrisy in Brussels.

The European commission's chief spokesman, Margaritis Schinas, expressed surprise at the content of the letter and insisted it was only natural for the bloc to prepare for a situation threatened repeatedly by Downing Street.
...
In response, Schinas told reporters in Brussels: "Here in the European commission we are somehow surprised that the UK is surprised that we are preparing for a scenario announced by the UK government itself.

"After all, it was PM May herself who said in her Lancaster House speech in January 2017 and repeated in her Florence speech in September that, and I quote: 'No deal is better than a bad deal for Britain. It is right that the government should prepare for every eventuality'.

"We take these words from the prime minister very seriously. It is therefore only natural that in this house we also prepare for every eventuality."

How dare the EU prepare for a scenario the UK government states it might create. You couldn't make this up.

warmachine:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/09/david-davis-complains-of-eu-discrimination-in-leaked-letter

David Davis's claim in a leaked letter to the prime minister that the EU is discriminating against the UK and damaging its economic interests by preparing for a no-deal scenario in March 2019 has been met with flat denials and accusations of hypocrisy in Brussels.

The European commission's chief spokesman, Margaritis Schinas, expressed surprise at the content of the letter and insisted it was only natural for the bloc to prepare for a situation threatened repeatedly by Downing Street.
...
In response, Schinas told reporters in Brussels: "Here in the European commission we are somehow surprised that the UK is surprised that we are preparing for a scenario announced by the UK government itself.

"After all, it was PM May herself who said in her Lancaster House speech in January 2017 and repeated in her Florence speech in September that, and I quote: 'No deal is better than a bad deal for Britain. It is right that the government should prepare for every eventuality'.

"We take these words from the prime minister very seriously. It is therefore only natural that in this house we also prepare for every eventuality."

How dare the EU prepare for a scenario the UK government states it might create. You couldn't make this up.

Its because they weren't allowed to prep for a potential Brexit during the referendum, so they naturally assumed that other countries wouldn't prep for the outcome they don't want either.

I am so embarrassed to have these fools representing me on the international stage, they are making a mockery of Britain. Thank god for Trump or we'd be the laughing stock of the world rather than just Europe.

So is it just me or are there other Irish, Scottish and Welsh thinking "England used to be smarter than this right?" It's getting pretty embarrassing that we lost to these guys.

CheetoDust:
So is it just me or are there other Irish, Scottish and Welsh thinking "England used to be smarter than this right?" It's getting pretty embarrassing that we lost to these guys.

On the bright side, people finally get to see what the English are really like.

Bobular:

I am so embarrassed to have these fools representing me on the international stage, they are making a mockery of Britain. Thank god for Trump or we'd be the laughing stock of the world rather than just Europe.

Just wait until the crashout occurs if it does.

Honestly, I find Brexit to be far more idiotic than Trump. At least with the Trump election there's a definable result of some definition.

CheetoDust:
So is it just me or are there other Irish, Scottish and Welsh thinking "England used to be smarter than this right?" It's getting pretty embarrassing that we lost to these guys.

Oh, I don't know. Ten times as much population and money can more than make up for a lot of stupidity.

It's almost like conservatives in the US and the UK are staring across the pond at each other playing the "penis game" except instead of shouting "penis," they're fucking over their own citizens and becoming laughingstocks internationally.

Ninjamedic:

CheetoDust:
So is it just me or are there other Irish, Scottish and Welsh thinking "England used to be smarter than this right?" It's getting pretty embarrassing that we lost to these guys.

On the bright side, people finally get to see what the English are really like..

Another good one is how the reason Brexit is good is that sovereignty is super important then Varadker turns around and makes some innocuous comment about how he'd like a united Ireland sometime in the future as long as it had massive support from both sides of the border and the Brits are acting like he's some raging nationalist who can't be truste. It genuinely baffles them that the world doesn't bend over backwards to give them everything they want no matter what it costs everyone else.

CheetoDust:

Ninjamedic:

On the bright side, people finally get to see what the English are really like..

Another good one is how the reason Brexit is good is that sovereignty is super important then Varadker turns around and makes some innocuous comment about how he'd like a united Ireland sometime in the future as long as it had massive support from both sides of the border and the Brits are acting like he's some raging nationalist who can't be truste. It genuinely baffles them that the world doesn't bend over backwards to give them everything they want no matter what it costs everyone else.

The problem that the Brexiters have is that (as a group) they were always, from the word go, unrealistic. They always believed that they had the advantage over the EU, and they would get to have their cake and eat it.

Now it is becoming increasingly clear that this was their fantasy, they prefer to double down and blame everyone else to pretend the mess somehow isn't their own fault, and a large dollop of hypcorisy isn't going to stop that.

Agema:

The problem that the Brexiters have is that (as a group) they were always, from the word go, unrealistic. They always believed that they had the advantage over the EU, and they would get to have their cake and eat it.

Now it is becoming increasingly clear that this was their fantasy, they prefer to double down and blame everyone else to pretend the mess somehow isn't their own fault, and a large dollop of hypcorisy isn't going to stop that.

My favourite is when they jump up and down and say 'They need us more than we need them', and then complain that the EU is deliberately punishing the UK by making any deal a bad deal. Not sure it can work both ways. I'm also a fan of the spittle-coated 'Just walk away! Just walk away!'

Baffle2:

My favourite is when they jump up and down and say 'They need us more than we need them', and then complain that the EU is deliberately punishing the UK by making any deal a bad deal. Not sure it can work both ways. I'm also a fan of the spittle-coated 'Just walk away! Just walk away!'

I think if the EU has been clear about any intentions and beliefs about a Brexit deal, it's that "No deal is the bad deal". They are, I think, a happy and willing partner to constructive negotiations. But they are so with very strict "red lines" which the UK's desires run right across.

I imagine it as a little like a suit shop: you can have a complete llama hair suit, a complete wool suit, or a complete polyester suit, or no suit at all. (And then after that you dicker over the shirt and other accessories.) But the UK wants a llama hair jacket with wool waistcoat and polyester trousers. Unfortunately, the shop just ain't offering that combo and doesn't really need the UK's custom anything like as much as the UK needs a suit.

Agema:
I imagine it as a little like a suit shop: you can have a complete llama hair suit, a complete wool suit, or a complete polyester suit, or no suit at all. (And then after that you dicker over the shirt and other accessories.) But the UK wants a llama hair jacket with wool waistcoat and polyester trousers. Unfortunately, the shop just ain't offering that combo and doesn't really need the UK's custom anything like as much as the UK needs a suit.

Suitably, what the UK wants to wear is a terrible combo - the polyester trousers are going to build up massive static as the UK's thighs rub together, and that's going to make the llama hair jacket look ridiculously fluffy. I'm sure there's an analogy in there somewhere that involves the rest of the EU (we can still say that) laughing at us.

Is the problem of Brexit that the UK fundamentally doesn't understand Capitalism? The only person who gets a good deal is the one with the power. That why we have an alternate power structure called government as a check against this power (like, it doesn't work becuase their economically captured but the premise is there). The U.K. Is deciding to give up its power and thus anyone can run roughshod over them. There is nothing special about the UK to give them a market advantage.

There was talk sometime around March last year that Brexiteers were expecting that Commonwealth countries would pick up the slack from the EU. Though I haven't heard anything about that since, and I can't see Britain being able to really get what it wants since they'd be crawling to us, putting the Commonwealth in the dominant negotiating position. Hell, this ABC article from March 2017 flat out said that if Britain were to try to make a deal with Australia, some officials think we'd be in the position to bargain hard for a deal that more in our favour.

trunkage:
Is the problem of Brexit that the UK fundamentally doesn't understand Capitalism? The only person who gets a good deal is the one with the power. That why we have an alternate power structure called government as a check against this power (like, it doesn't work becuase their economically captured but the premise is there). The U.K. Is deciding to give up its power and thus anyone can run roughshod over them. There is nothing special about the UK to give them a market advantage.

Well, I don't think and the EU negotiators don't seem to think that negotiations need to be a zero sum game. Peace and security in Northern Ireland and easy trade between the UK and the EU are good for both. The thing that I find most painful to see in these negotiations is that the Brits keep shooting themselves in the foot with their rethoric of having their cake and eating it too and complaining about unfairness from the EU side. That just moves the negotiations into a winner/loser situation that the UK will not win. Or even more likely, a loser/loser situation where both sides have to content with a hard border through Ireland, more expensive trade and soured intra-European relations. Ultimately though, it seems that the negotiations are moving ahead allong continental lines and that the end result will be mediocre but not a complete no deal scenario.

Major Tom:
There was talk sometime around March last year that Brexiteers were expecting that Commonwealth countries would pick up the slack from the EU.

Unlikely.

Commonwealth countries are overwhelmingly a) poor and/or b) far away. This makes them very poor trade partners. It is in fact why the UK joined the EU in the first place: because it could not make enough money through privileged economic access to its poor, ex-imperial possessions.

A vital rule of trade is that countries trade proportionately far more with close places than distant ones: it's not just the transport costs, but a lot about mutual positions and interactions, awareness, ease of forging links, etc. After that, why do people think India or South Africa are going to give the UK some sort of "mates rates", as if they owe us a favour or don't have any ambitions to profit from us?

It's nothing but the stupid, hazily nostalgic notions of some Brits who think Commonwealth countries are going to give up their national interest just to buy some British... whatever it is this country even makes any more. Potentially because they're also the deluded ones who think the empire was a grand project to make the world a better place and all our ex-colonies kind of appreciated us for it.

Major Tom:
There was talk sometime around March last year that Brexiteers were expecting that Commonwealth countries would pick up the slack from the EU. Though I haven't heard anything about that since, and I can't see Britain being able to really get what it wants since they'd be crawling to us, putting the Commonwealth in the dominant negotiating position. Hell, this ABC article from March 2017 flat out said that if Britain were to try to make a deal with Australia, some officials think we'd be in the position to bargain hard for a deal that more in our favour.

You'd have to answer some questions about why getting a 'better' deal with Australia is a good idea. Australia exports rocks and food. Is England really planning on revitalising it industrial sector? It cant compete with the rest of the world. China pays a lot for both major exports. Tariffs aren't that high, so O don't know what advantage you can get there. Australia is 24 million people. EU is (currently) just over 500 mil. Selling to Australia doesn't make sense when the market is so small compared to the EU. There are lots of regulations in Australia, so those costs will still be imposed.

But then, since the UK is twice the size, it might be able to squeeze something special out of Australia

Addendum_Forthcoming is far more knowledgeable about Australia's international trade than I am. Though since Australia has shifted focus to China and South East Asia from the 80's (AFAIK, I was like, under 10 during the Hawke years. I was too busy worrying about Transformers and Ninja Turtles instead of international politics) and done rather well out if it, so I would be hard pressed to find a reason to give England a deal that preferences them over our existing arrangements. Maybe if they promise a price drop on Games Workshop models?

Anyway, the point appears to be moot as the proposal seems to have died almost as soon as it was put forward.

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