Trump Withdraws From Iran Nuclear Deal

 Pages 1 2 3 NEXT
 

Well, I can't see this getting ugly. Basically, against all urging from Western allies like Germany, France, and Great Britain, Trump has withdrawn the U.S. from the anti-nuclear treaty that Barack Obama had signed off on at the end of his presidency, with Trump calling the treaty "a horrible, one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made".

The intention of the nuclear deal was simple. In return for Iran scaling back their nuclear activities, such as reducing their supply of enriched uranium and preventing the building of a heavy water nuclear facility, the US and 5 allies (Great Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China) would lift sanctions.

Now, however, Trump has not only pushed for the sanctions to be reinstated, but is planning to add more sanctions. The withdrawal from the treaty was heavily advised against...at least, before Trump had Mike Pompeo and national security adviser John R. Bolton as advisers to reduce the resistance to his wishes.


So, to sum up: Trump has pulled out of an agreement that would reduce nuclear activity in a non-ally state, in the process pissing off 5 of the biggest governments in the world besides the US, including China and Russia. Those 5 states are going to continue pushing for the deal on their own, which basically means international relations between the U.S. and Great Britain/France/Germany/Russia/China have all been weakened in one move, because Trump didn't agree with the treaty that his predecessor arranged.

This. Is. Fucking. Worrisome.

Source on the withdrawal (New York Times)

Source on the Iran Nuclear Deal specifics (BBC News)

Maybe the Iran Supreme Leader is not Autocratic enough for Trump. He has to go NK... supreme leader? Maybe its a typo and he actually meant North Korea.

But in all seriousness. Trump dislikes Obama and will do anything to destroy that legacy. Even if it destroys the US. He doesn't really care who he pisses off. Scratch that, he enjoys pissing people off.

Whelp, I had hoped the couple of adults left in the White House would actually do something, but I should have known better; no one in this administration cares about good of the country over their party and/or personal ambitions.

Now that Trump has left the deal, Iran has every incentive to ramp back up their program until the next round of negotiations has happened, the US has managed to, once again, piss all over our closest allies and show we can't be trusted to abide by even the least hampering and beneficial of international treaties that we were a main party of creating, and Russia and China have a chance to further expand their influence in the Middle East.

trunkage:
But in all seriousness. Trump dislikes Obama and will do anything to destroy that legacy.

Not that simple this time. This move benefits Russia greatly. It damages the US on the international political scene and makes the US look like tools that can't be trusted, which in turn forces Europe to cooperate more with China and Russia. It also creates an opening for Iran to become a nuclear power which makes them pretty much untouchable and that benefits Russia. It will inevitably lead to higher oil prices which benefits Putin personally and it might even allow Russia to sell weapons to Iran. Basically, Trump is just delivering to his real boss. He's been undermining the US on every turn.

Oh, and it also sends a message to North Korea that the US can't be trusted. I mean, North Korea can't be trusted either and they're totally going to manipulate Trump. But this matters because it gives them an excuse to fuck over Trump.

One important element:

The International Atomic Energy Agency, which was officially monitoring Iran's compliance with the deal, has verified 10 times since the deal began that Iran is indeed complying with the terms of the agreement.

The deal was working. The deal had compelled Iran to ship 98% of its enriched uranium, unplug most of its centrifuges-- to more than half its capacity to develop nuclear weapon capability.

The deal was effective, and was demonstrated to be working 10 times over, independently. Benjamin Netanyahu has made the enormous claim that Iran was reneging on the deal... and presented only erroneous, misrepresented data in support.

We have two possibilities about Trump's motivation then; either he 1) Doesn't care about whether it was working or not, and therefore doesn't care about the issue at all, and is even willing to exacerbate it for political/personal reasons; or 2) He believes Netanyahu's unsubstantiated claim. I honestly don't know which it is. One points to malice, and the other points to gullibility on an almost incredible level.

This is the kind of statesmen we, the people, employ. One is willing to lie, lie, lie through his teeth in order to accuse another nation of something of which he has no proof. Another is willing to believe him, and is willing to pull out of perfectly effective international agreements-- and even to renege on existing international obligations-- on the basis of hearsay.

Trump The Traitor strikes again.

The quoting system seems to be down again.

Adam Jensen:

trunkage:
But in all seriousness. Trump dislikes Obama and will do anything to destroy that legacy.

Not that simple this time. This move benefits Russia greatly. It damages the US on the international political scene and makes the US look like tools that can't be trusted, which in turn forces Europe to cooperate more with China and Russia. It also creates an opening for Iran to become a nuclear power which makes them pretty much untouchable and that benefits Russia. It will inevitably lead to higher oil prices which benefits Putin personally and it might even allow Russia to sell weapons to Iran. Basically, Trump is just delivering to his real boss. He's been undermining the US on every turn.

Oh, and it also sends a message to North Korea that the US can't be trusted. I mean, North Korea can't be trusted either and they're totally going to manipulate Trump. But this matters because it gives them an excuse to fuck over Trump.

Yeah, I'm not really into Trump is actually working for Putin. But this evidence doesn't help my case against that. I'm more for the Trump is too incompetent to realise the damage he's doing. He's also vengeful, hence my belief in the quote you selected from my post.

He's also got an image to uphold. He's well know for reneging on deals

Well, if I were Iran I'd be sprinting towards getting a nuke.

Given the rhetoric from the chuds in power, it'll be the only way they don't end up invaded.

Yeah, this probably bodes poorly. I mean, these agreements have a poor track record at keeping states from developing nukes in the long term, but trashing it won't help anyone. He can't negotiate a better deal, and escalating tensions is only going to speed up Iran's nuclear program. I give it five to ten years.

One of the ironies about Trump's opposition to the Iran nuclear deal is that, fundamentally, the deal was that Iran would slow down its nuclear program in exchange for a relaxation of sanctions. Trump is planning on striking a grand bargain with North Korea, in which North Korea would...slow down its nuclear program in exchange for a relaxation of sanctions. So Trump is bashing a deal while his secretary of state is negotiating an identical deal.

The motivation behind this isn't anything sensible or rational. The Iran deal is an Obama achievement, so Trump wants to undo it. Trump's entire presidency is motivated by undoing things Obama did regardless of their merit; healthcare reform, environmental regulation, the CFPB, Dodd-Frank, DACA, anything. He would've been encouraged by people like Bolton and Pompeo, but the fundamental reason for his animosity is just Obama.

I just watched John Mulaney's show from last year on Netflix; he has this great bit about how the Trump presidency is like a horse loose in a hospital. (I can't find a clip from the actual stand-up, that's from a publicity tour on the Late Show.) I was pissing myself, because it's just such a perfect analogy. If anyone has Netflix, they should go check it out; it's pretty late into the routine so if you find John Mulaney's voice aggravating, as I sometimes do, you might want to skip ahead.

altnameJag:
Well, if I were Iran I'd be sprinting towards getting a nuke.

Given the rhetoric from the chuds in power, it'll be the only way they don't end up invaded.

I think Rouhani stated that he could be enriching uranium in weeks.

The thing that enrages me the most about this? Israel.

Non-signatories on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty should be ignored when people ask for opinions about other states acquiring nuclear weapons.

CM156:
The thing that enrages me the most about this? Israel.

Non-signatories on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty should be ignored when people ask for opinions about other states acquiring nuclear weapons.

Really? That's the most enraging part? People expressing thoughts? Fair enough.

CheetoDust:

CM156:
The thing that enrages me the most about this? Israel.

Non-signatories on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty should be ignored when people ask for opinions about other states acquiring nuclear weapons.

Really? That's the most enraging part? People expressing thoughts? Fair enough.

The degree to which our concern over Israel dominates American politics is something that's chapped my hide for a long time. Basically ever since I stopped being a neoconservative.

If North Korea has taught us anything, it's that nations which want nukes get them. It doesn't matter if it's one of the poorest, shittiest nations buried under sanctions, it'll find a way. Pakistan developed nukes. India did. Iran is higher than any of those three in terms of human development, it can certainly do it. The next main driver to develop nukes is national security, feeling threatened. And there's nothing to make a nation feel threatened like the USA thundering at it. The best - only - way to stop Iran developing nukes was to make it feel like it didn't need to, which would have been about bringing it into more harmony with the wider global community. It's also absurd for Trump to slam prior administrations for the way they handled North Korea for failing to prevent it getting nukes... and then hypocritically apply exactly that same strategy on Iran.

Next, sanctions without the agreement of the rest of the world is a bust. If Europe, China, Japan etc. don't agree to sanctions, Iran has access to financial markets and technologies. It's not Cuba, which could be hammered by unilateral US sanctions because its geographical location meant the USA was the pre-eminent market. If Trump really thinks he's going to sanction non-US companies that do business with Iran, then either world governments will step in to defend their companies, or specialised companies wih no US ties will be created to trade with Iran. Either way, sanctions will be borderline toothless.

Really, Trump's decision on Iran reflects I think two things:

1) Crass pandering to a domestic support base over national interest or practicality
2) Tearing down anything Obama did. Let's face it: Trump clearly despises Obama. Possibly, I think, because as a narcissist he resents how Obama was admired and how easily Obama made him look a fool. But partly I think because Trump is a racist appalled at a non-white president, to the point of believing Obama was illegitimate (hence his support of that birth certificate stuff).

CM156:
Non-signatories on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty should be ignored when people ask for opinions about other states acquiring nuclear weapons.

Absolutely.

Israel will be overjoyed. Predictable hostilities towards Iran were predictable.

Adam Jensen:
Not that simple this time. This move benefits Russia greatly. It damages the US on the international political scene and makes the US look like tools that can't be trusted, which in turn forces Europe to cooperate more with China and Russia. It also creates an opening for Iran to become a nuclear power which makes them pretty much untouchable and that benefits Russia. It will inevitably lead to higher oil prices which benefits Putin personally and it might even allow Russia to sell weapons to Iran. Basically, Trump is just delivering to his real boss. He's been undermining the US on every turn.

This take is dogshit-tier transparent propaganda. GOP and a fair amount of the Dem establishment has long wanted war with Iran. Indeed, the Senate passed new sanctions against Iran last year in violation of the existing agreement with a vote of 98-2. Any analysis that doesn't even mention the military industrial complex or Israel or Saudi Arabia or the long-standing belligerence from Washington D.C. is quite simply a fantasy.

Also, there's this:

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20180419-iran-switches-from-dollar-to-euro/

CM156:

CheetoDust:

CM156:
The thing that enrages me the most about this? Israel.

Non-signatories on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty should be ignored when people ask for opinions about other states acquiring nuclear weapons.

Really? That's the most enraging part? People expressing thoughts? Fair enough.

The degree to which our concern over Israel dominates American politics is something that's chapped my hide for a long time. Basically ever since I stopped being a neoconservative.

Fair enough, I do forget the US attitude to Israel is different to ours here.

Was this any real surprise between Benjamin Netanyahu and John Bolton?

This was already a predictable situation even without those two heavy hitters, but between Netanyahu's insistence, and John Bolton simply being John Bolton, made it a guarantee of eventuating.

I mean the best possible aspect of this affair is Iran probably knew this was coming, regardless, and likely has already formulated its own plans in preparation. So the actual levels of real animosity that will emerge of nations simply refusing to honour its agreements won't be genuine hostility. Iran won't be genuinely surprised by this.

Not for its people, mind. But for its leadership and Iran's allies it's a pretty large dose of leverage.

The real question is to what extend the US will try to apply sanctions to non US companies that have buissness ties both to the US and to Iran. And how those other countries react to such attempts.

Keep in mind that the only hope of keeping the deal in place without the US is by having significant trade of non-US companies to Iran.

Seanchaidh:

Adam Jensen:
Not that simple this time. This move benefits Russia greatly. It damages the US on the international political scene and makes the US look like tools that can't be trusted, which in turn forces Europe to cooperate more with China and Russia. It also creates an opening for Iran to become a nuclear power which makes them pretty much untouchable and that benefits Russia. It will inevitably lead to higher oil prices which benefits Putin personally and it might even allow Russia to sell weapons to Iran. Basically, Trump is just delivering to his real boss. He's been undermining the US on every turn.

This take is dogshit-tier transparent propaganda.

Except other than the last 2 sentences (which are debatable), his analysis is entirely correct. All of those things are effects of the deal. I understand those responses don't fit with your pet issues, but that doesn't make stating them propaganda...

Avnger:

Seanchaidh:

Adam Jensen:
Not that simple this time. This move benefits Russia greatly. It damages the US on the international political scene and makes the US look like tools that can't be trusted, which in turn forces Europe to cooperate more with China and Russia. It also creates an opening for Iran to become a nuclear power which makes them pretty much untouchable and that benefits Russia. It will inevitably lead to higher oil prices which benefits Putin personally and it might even allow Russia to sell weapons to Iran. Basically, Trump is just delivering to his real boss. He's been undermining the US on every turn.

This take is dogshit-tier transparent propaganda.

Except other than the last 2 sentences (which are debatable)

The last two sentences are what make it clear that it is dogshit-tier transparent propaganda.

https://www.theonion.com/fuming-rachel-maddow-spends-entire-show-just-pointing-w-1825017260

Seanchaidh:

Avnger:

Seanchaidh:

This take is dogshit-tier transparent propaganda.

Except other than the last 2 sentences (which are debatable)

The last two sentences are what make it clear that it is dogshit-tier transparent propaganda.

https://www.theonion.com/fuming-rachel-maddow-spends-entire-show-just-pointing-w-1825017260

...You do realize that you just used a satirical news site to make your point, right?

Seanchaidh:
Any analysis that doesn't even mention the military industrial complex or Israel or Saudi Arabia or the long-standing belligerence from Washington D.C. is quite simply a fantasy.

Incomplete or over-simplified, perhaps, but not necessarily a fantasy. There can be many reasons, and they don't have to be of equal weight.

Ok, yes, those are important things to leave out, unless they are not mentioned because they are to be automatically assumed.

thebobmaster:

Seanchaidh:

Avnger:

Except other than the last 2 sentences (which are debatable)

The last two sentences are what make it clear that it is dogshit-tier transparent propaganda.

https://www.theonion.com/fuming-rachel-maddow-spends-entire-show-just-pointing-w-1825017260

...You do realize that you just used a satirical news site to make your point, right?

Tying every single fucking thing to Russia and only Russia deserves nothing more than ridicule.

Thaluikhain:

Seanchaidh:
Any analysis that doesn't even mention the military industrial complex or Israel or Saudi Arabia or the long-standing belligerence from Washington D.C. is quite simply a fantasy.

Incomplete or over-simplified, perhaps, but not necessarily a fantasy. There can be many reasons, and they don't have to be of equal weight.

Ok, yes, those are important things to leave out, unless they are not mentioned because they are to be automatically assumed.

It is abundantly clear that they were not mentioned because they don't fit into a trite Tom Clancy spy novel plot, or at least not the trite Tom Clancy spy novel plot currently on the mainstream infotainment menu.

Seanchaidh:

Avnger:

Seanchaidh:

This take is dogshit-tier transparent propaganda.

Except other than the last 2 sentences (which are debatable)

The last two sentences are what make it clear that it is dogshit-tier transparent propaganda.

https://www.theonion.com/fuming-rachel-maddow-spends-entire-show-just-pointing-w-1825017260

Again, there is nothing incorrect about his analysis of post-agreement events. His speculation that Trump broke the agreement to make those events happen doesn't make the events occurring imaginary.

Also, don't you remember when Bernie solved the water crisis in Flint, MI?
https://politics.theonion.com/bloated-rotund-bernie-sanders-reveals-he-has-finished-1819578675

thebobmaster:
...You do realize that you just used a satirical news site to make your point, right?

Shhh. I want to see how far he goes with it xD

At this point I can hardly fault Iran for developing nukes. If the US was as histerical over my country as it was over Iran and had invaded Belgium and Germany in the passed decades, and broke its treaties like this, I'd sure as shit want my government to get itself some nukes. Nukes are still bad in general though, so I hope they don't go through with it.

Avnger:
Again, there is nothing incorrect about his analysis of post-agreement events. His speculation that Trump broke the agreement to make those events happen doesn't make the events occurring imaginary.

Has anyone ever said that propaganda is formed from statements which are all necessarily false? Why is it propaganda: it's an absurdly selective reading/analysis of events meant to stoke fear of the Slavic menace capped off with a ridiculously speculative and irresponsible accusation about Trump.

image

Pseudonym:
At this point I can hardly fault Iran for developing nukes. If the US was as histerical over my country as it was over Iran and had invaded Belgium and Germany in the passed decades, and broke its treaties like this, I'd sure as shit want my government to get itself some nukes. Nukes are still bad in general though, so I hope they don't go through with it.

Yup. Looking at the other "Axis of Evil" countries, North Korea has nuclear weapons, gets negotiations. Iraq does not, gets invaded.

Seanchaidh:
The last two sentences are what make it clear that it is dogshit-tier transparent propaganda.

You don't have a FUCKIN' CLUE what's going on. So let me illuminate you. Trump and Cohen are LITERALLY a part of the Russian mafia. Have been for decades. It's not a propaganda and it's not a fantasy. Trump's been laundering Russian mob money since the 90's.

Adam Jensen:

Seanchaidh:
The last two sentences are what make it clear that it is dogshit-tier transparent propaganda.

You don't have a FUCKIN' CLUE what's going on. So let me illuminate you. Trump and Cohen are LITERALLY a part of the Russian mafia. Have been for decades. It's not a propaganda and it's not a fantasy. Trump's been laundering Russian mob money since the 90's.

As has Bibi Netanyahu and John Bolton and Mike Pompeo and all the other scores of Washington insiders who wanted to junk the deal too, I'm sure.

Agema:
If North Korea has taught us anything, it's that nations which want nukes get them. It doesn't matter if it's one of the poorest, shittiest nations buried under sanctions, it'll find a way. Pakistan developed nukes. India did. Iran is higher than any of those three in terms of human development, it can certainly do it. The next main driver to develop nukes is national security, feeling threatened. And there's nothing to make a nation feel threatened like the USA thundering at it. The best - only - way to stop Iran developing nukes was to make it feel like it didn't need to, which would have been about bringing it into more harmony with the wider global community. It's also absurd for Trump to slam prior administrations for the way they handled North Korea for failing to prevent it getting nukes... and then hypocritically apply exactly that same strategy on Iran.

Next, sanctions without the agreement of the rest of the world is a bust. If Europe, China, Japan etc. don't agree to sanctions, Iran has access to financial markets and technologies. It's not Cuba, which could be hammered by unilateral US sanctions because its geographical location meant the USA was the pre-eminent market. If Trump really thinks he's going to sanction non-US companies that do business with Iran, then either world governments will step in to defend their companies, or specialised companies wih no US ties will be created to trade with Iran. Either way, sanctions will be borderline toothless.

Really, Trump's decision on Iran reflects I think two things:

1) Crass pandering to a domestic support base over national interest or practicality
2) Tearing down anything Obama did. Let's face it: Trump clearly despises Obama. Possibly, I think, because as a narcissist he resents how Obama was admired and how easily Obama made him look a fool. But partly I think because Trump is a racist appalled at a non-white president, to the point of believing Obama was illegitimate (hence his support of that birth certificate stuff).

CM156:
Non-signatories on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty should be ignored when people ask for opinions about other states acquiring nuclear weapons.

Absolutely.

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't part of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty oblige the major nuclear powers (the ones with legal nukes) to work on reducing their stockpile? I wish we were in a position where we could do so without it being taken as a sign we are weak. We have enough to destroy the world several times over.

CM156:

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't part of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty oblige the major nuclear powers (the ones with legal nukes) to work on reducing their stockpile? I wish we were in a position where we could do so without it being taken as a sign we are weak. We have enough to destroy the world several times over.

It certainly is true that only being able to destroy the world two or three times over would make the USA look like a pussy.

Baffle2:

CM156:

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't part of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty oblige the major nuclear powers (the ones with legal nukes) to work on reducing their stockpile? I wish we were in a position where we could do so without it being taken as a sign we are weak. We have enough to destroy the world several times over.

It certainly is true that only being able to destroy the world two or three times over would make the USA look like a pussy.

"Haha, look at those cucks with only 4,000 nuclear weapons. We have 4,300. My nuclear penis is bigger than your nuclear penis" -Russia, probably.

My fears over a succession crisis when Putin dies makes me very nervous at the prospect of the Russians having so many nuclear weapons.

At this point I think I'd be happier if it was the US getting sanctioned by everyone else.

Seanchaidh:
This take is dogshit-tier transparent propaganda.

That's...overly harsh, I think.

It's true that this move benefits Russia. It will raise oil prices, which will aid Russia's oil-dependent economy. It will make Iran increasingly dependent on Russian and European markets. It depletes the international credibility of the United States, which weakens the US as a negotiator. And it gives Iran an excuse to return to its nuclear program, which escalates Iran-Saudi tensions, which benefits Russia by making Iran more dependent on their military support.

Now, it may not be that any of those facts are the reason why Trump cancelled the deal. I don't think they are; I think Trump withdrew from the deal simply because it was one of Obama's signature foreign policy achievements, and he hates Obama. But they're still facts, and I wouldn't dismiss them as dogshit propaganda.

 Pages 1 2 3 NEXT

Reply to Thread

Log in or Register to Comment
Have an account? Login below:
With Facebook:Login With Facebook
or
Username:  
Password:  
  
Not registered? To sign up for an account with The Escapist:
Register With Facebook
Register With Facebook
or
Register for a free account here