Trump and Kim Jong Un summit

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/north-korean-leader-kim-jong-un-has-invited-president-trump-to-a-meeting/2018/03/08/021cb070-2322-11e8-badd-7c9f29a55815_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.2dcdaa19cb9e

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/05/10/trumps-summit-with-kim-jong-un-set-for-june-12-in-singapore-president-says.html

So, peace is at the horizon... maybe? Perhaps? I don't know.

I really wish I could give these two guys the benefit of the doubt; but gosh! They both have worked really hard in their public bellicose macho image that I can't picture them having a rational level-headed conversation between them. So while we wait for the meeting to happen, here are some questions:

- What do you expect to happen in the meeting?

- What do you wish to happen in the meeting?

- Are you prepared for whatever happens in the meeting?

- As my father always said: is all this a distraction from a more insidious issue?

EDIT: Well, Trump called back the whole affair. That's disappointing. I actually wanted to see him to at least try to pull out peace with NK.

EDIT 2: I'm going to use a roulette table for my opinions, because gambling is far more reliable than these peace talks.

EDIT 3: The meeting is done, and there seems to be plans to bring the conflict level down a notch. Will any of those two break their promises (specially Kim)? We'll probably find out soon enough.

Great news. Hope they actually make some headway.

Would be a nice achievement for Trump honestly.

I'm hoping and somewhat expecting that this is sound and fury signifying nothing, done for internal political reasons (and, for NK, to embarrass Trump somewhat) and we go back to the status quo.

Thing is, the bellicose macho images don't stop them both getting what they want.

Kim wants peace and a reduction in sanctions. Trump wants peace and for Kim to stop testing nukes. South Korea wants peace.

Both want to take something to their people to prove how competent and worthy of a shared Nobel Peace Prize they are.

I'm actually more hopeful about these than I have been about Korean talks in a long time.

Catnip1024:
snip

Kim? Nobel Peace Prize? Are you feeling okay, dude? I think you might have high fever or something.

Catnip1024:

Both want to take something to their people to prove how competent and worthy of a shared Nobel Peace Prize they are.

Honestly, I kind of want Trump to get the peace prize just because of how funny it would be.

OT: We will see what actually happens. Trump is a thundering moron, but NK and SK finally seem ready for peace, so hopefully something good comes of this.

CaitSeith:

Catnip1024:
snip

Kim? Nobel Peace Prize? Are you feeling okay, dude? I think you might have high fever or something.

I'm not the one to suggest this. I think it was South Korea's Foreign Minister / Defence Minister that suggested Trump should get it, but if peace is achieved it should really be a joint affair.

Now that we've got that joke out of the way, let me say that I'm very cautiously optimistic about this potential meeting. And if there's any Nobel Peace prize handed out, it should be shared, perhaps between the governments of North Korea and South Korea.

I really, really want this to work out, especially if it means I have less to worry about... I have enough of those already!

Thaluikhain:
I'm hoping and somewhat expecting that this is sound and fury signifying nothing, done for internal political reasons (and, for NK, to embarrass Trump somewhat) and we go back to the status quo.

I have a thundering migraine so I could be misreading this but it kind of sounds like you want global tensions to continue and the North Korean citizens to continue suffering just so Trump looks silly.

Catnip1024:
Trump wants peace to make himself look good.

FTFY.

It only takes listening to him talking about the fucking TV ratings during his meeting with the repatriated North Korean prisoners to see that this, like everything else with him, is all about Trump's ego.

CM156:
And if there's any Nobel Peace prize handed out, it should be shared, perhaps between the governments of North Korea and South Korea.

I could get behind this. Handing out a Nobel Peace prize to Kim Jong Un rankles a bit because of the ridiculous number of human rights abuses still ongoing in North Korea, but it would be hard to justify awarding it only to the South Korean president when it takes both sides cooperating to get this far and see things through.

Here Comes Tomorrow:

Thaluikhain:
I'm hoping and somewhat expecting that this is sound and fury signifying nothing, done for internal political reasons (and, for NK, to embarrass Trump somewhat) and we go back to the status quo.

I have a thundering migraine so I could be misreading this but it kind of sounds like you want global tensions to continue and the North Korean citizens to continue suffering just so Trump looks silly.

I'm thinking NK wants to make Trump look silly, and that the best result of this is probably nothing much changing, as opposed to things getting worse. Which also seems to be on the table.

The North Korean Dictator and the South Korean President met not so long ago and we are not living in the setting of Fallout, so it's a start.

I think I speak for everyone when I say: Mr. Trump, please don't act like yourself on this!

They're going to manipulate the crap out of Trump. And I don't blame them.

Catnip1024:
Kim wants peace and a reduction in sanctions.

He might surprise us, but by historical standards, what North Korea is usually talking about is removal of any and all US military support from South Korea (beyond perhaps basic arms sales). Who seriously believes NK is going to dismantle its nukes now it's got them?

Catnip1024:
I'm not the one to suggest this. I think it was South Korea's Foreign Minister / Defence Minister that suggested Trump should get it, but if peace is achieved it should really be a joint affair.

It was the South Korean president, I think.

Factions of the SK government have been working hard on peace with NK for a long, long time. They were the ones who achieved the breakthrough in the last year. The problem is that the USA (alongside Japan and China) is crucial to a treaty: its good diplomacy for the SK president to butter up a colossal narcissist.

Trump let's remember was busy sounding crassly bellicose and achieving nothing, then when suddenly caught flat-footed by the SK/NK breakthrough, he performed a volte-face. Trump getting the Nobel would thus be like refusing to enter a baking competition, and then winning it after being given a cake to submit as his own by a local baker. But sometimes it's not about justice, or reward for had work and good intentions, it's just about raw results.

Agema:
He might surprise us, but by historical standards, what North Korea is usually talking about is removal of any and all US military support from South Korea (beyond perhaps basic arms sales). Who seriously believes NK is going to dismantle its nukes now it's got them?

You note that no mention has been made of dismantling. Only of ceasing production and testing. Important distinction.

And the North Koreans have said they are willing to drop the demand of a full US withdrawal. Hence my optimism. The North Koreans seem more reasonable than usual, the South Koreans have switched off the Kpop broadcasts, and worst comes to worst, we have dozens of cameras filming what happens when Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump are put in a room together.

Factions of the SK government have been working hard on peace with NK for a long, long time. They were the ones who achieved the breakthrough in the last year. The problem is that the USA (alongside Japan and China) is crucial to a treaty: its good diplomacy for the SK president to butter up a colossal narcissist.

Trump let's remember was busy sounding crassly bellicose and achieving nothing, then when suddenly caught flat-footed by the SK/NK breakthrough, he performed a volte-face. Trump getting the Nobel would thus be like refusing to enter a baking competition, and then winning it after being given a cake to submit as his own by a local baker. But sometimes it's not about justice, or reward for had work and good intentions, it's just about raw results.

Well, could be that the good cop bad cop act has worked... I don't intend to speculate on how strategic as opposed to fortuitous it is, but having a borderline psychopath on the US side of things kind of makes Kim Jong Un's usual tactics a lot more risky.

I know I appear to defend him a lot on here, but I don't like Trump. I think he's an elite narcissistic moron, but a democratically elected one. But if peace is achieved in Korea, all parties involved deserve the Peace Prize. Far more than when Obama won his, that's for sure. That would apply equally if Clinton was president, or Sanders, or Ronald McDonald. It's the end of a conflict that has been theoretically going on for 50 years.

And this is the other thing that irks me here. People wishing the talks would fall through just to make Trump look bad. Hoping to prolong the suffering of thousands and the risk of imminent nuclear war out of spite. Especially when, as you said, the majority of the legwork is done by the South Koreans.

Agema:
Who seriously believes NK is going to dismantle its nukes now it's got them?

Wouldn't be the first, or even the second, to do so. South Africa got rid of the ones they made, and we got rid of the ones the US gave us.

All in all there's reason to be optimistic. With China openly no longer careing for its buffer state, and the Five Eyes putting an end to illegal embargo violations by UN member states, coupled with the social unrest that points towards multiple coup attempts (if defectors are to be believed) North Korea isn't in a situation anyone would want to be in right now. The question now is not if there will be peace, it's what form it will take between a liberalisation of the economy on one extreme and reunification on the other.

The only thing that isn't positive is that there are some on the fringes who oppose this for no other reason then Trump being the one responsible. Fact is his nomination is likely to win it, and it's deserved, but some extremists hate him so much as to take issue with it. I can't imagine hating someone that much.

Zontar:
Wouldn't be the first, or even the second, to do so. South Africa got rid of the ones they made, and we got rid of the ones the US gave us.

Yeah. Two countries under no threats got rid of their nukes. That's not exactly NK's position, is it?

The only thing that isn't positive is that there are some on the fringes who oppose this for no other reason then Trump being the one responsible. Fact is his nomination is likely to win it, and it's deserved, but some extremists hate him so much as to take issue with it. I can't imagine hating someone that much.

Trump thus far deserves approximately nothing, as far as I can see. Let's remember Trump was busy firing vapidly bellicose hostility at NK achieving nothing... until South Korea made a diplomatic breakthrough. Then Trump suddenly latches onto that to agree to talks.

In the end, he turns up and slaps his signature on other people's hard work, he gets to go down into history. Pragmatist that I am, I'll take that. But I take it in the knowledge that the world is not a fair or just place, and a lot of people get credit for things that others should. It's not genius, or skill, or talent, or diligence: it's the dumb luck of being in the right place at the right time.

Agema:

Yeah. Two countries under no threats got rid of their nukes. That's not exactly NK's position, is it?

I wouldn't call "being between two superpowers with a 100% chance of anything they throw at each other going over us and much of it getting shot down on us"
or "being at the tip of a continent which has been fighting a war with openly genocidal intent towards you" as "no threat", and in fact I'd go so far as to say North Korea is the one with the least threat towards it given everyone, including them, know that they are the only ones who would actually start something in this situation.

Trump thus far deserves approximately nothing, as far as I can see.

And every single person who is an authority on the matter disagrees with your assessment. South Koreas president and foreign minister have been explicit about the fact that Trump's hardline stance, use of the military of the US, Canada, UK and Australia to enforce the embargo, and pressure placed on China to put their own pressure on NK, where critical in all this happening.

Disliking Trump is one thing, but this is his victory, and it's downright disgusting that I've seen people openly state they'd rather the war continue then Trump get the credit (that again, everyone who's an authority on the matter says he deserves) for ending it.

As nice as it is to know that Trump is now assured 2020, that the blue wave of the midterm isn't going to be noteworthy, and the humour in people pretending he's going to be empeached and even impressoned for things that even if true (and likely aren't if Fire and Fury is accurate) wouldn't compare to the crimes of Obama, Clinton or the Bush's, it's still odd to see those who claim to be the "good guys", the moral superiors of society, acting so downright reprehensibly.

Zontar:
As nice as it is to know that Trump is now assured 2020,

You keep saying this with literally nothing to back it up.
Trump is most certainly not assured re-election, and you are most certainly in no position to be making such a bold claim. Many Repubs are either reaching their term limit, retiring, or losing their seats to Dems. People keep jumping ship faster than Trump can appoint and get them approved, and the US' global reputation is currently circling the drain, with our allies currently having to figure out how they're going to deal with an inability to trust America's word from now on. Regardless if he gets replaced tomorrow or if he somehow does get re-elected and makes it to 2024, he's created more problems than he's solved and whoever his successor is has their work cut out for them.

impressoned for things that even if true (and likely aren't if Fire and Fury is accurate) wouldn't compare to the crimes of Obama, Clinton or the Bush's,

At the risk of de-railing this thread...
Really???

The DPRK does this every 8 years, however. It makes promises, sanctions are partly listed, a few years pass, then it's back to the status quo of war rhetoric.

Addendum_Forthcoming:
The DPRK does this every 8 years, however. It makes promises, sanctions are partly listed, a few years pass, then it's back to the status quo of war rhetoric.

They don't have China backing them this time though, as the last cold war holdout their days have been numbered since the fall of the Union, but now even China isn't proping them up and, if defectors are to be believed, there have been multiple coup attempts in recent years. At this point their leadership needs an out and I wouldn't be shocked if they went for full reunification in exchange for amnisty just to prevent the lower ranks from overthrowing them.

Zontar:

They don't have China backing them this time though, as the last cold war holdout their days have been numbered since the fall of the Union, but now even China isn't proping them up and, if defectors are to be believed, there have been multiple coup attempts in recent years. At this point their leadership needs an out and I wouldn't be shocked if they went for full reunification in exchange for amnisty just to prevent the lower ranks from overthrowing them.

Won't happen. For starters, the Chinese propup North Korea for two reasons. The want a buffer nation to U.S. interests from their northeast border given India has a contiguous land border to their southwest, and Vietnam has a land border to their immediate south, and both those nations have already expressed interest with a deepening strategic alliance with ASEAN and Australia.

Second reason, and the biggest, is they don't want a metric fuckton of North Korean asylum seekers in Northern China.

And on that matter, neither does the RoK.

Do you know who is one of the biggest foreign aid providers to North Korea? South Korea.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-southkorea-aid/south-korea-approves-8-million-aid-to-north-korea-timing-to-be-decided-later-idUSKCN1BW0AG

And they do so for a very simple reason. They don't want North Korean asylum seekers.

The Kim dynasty, as well as his generals, do not want a unified Korea. Or at least materially speaking, they don't want a unified Korea where they lose the seat of their power. The Kim dynasty is driven by self-preservation. They won't give up their nukes or actually dismantle their artillery forces that perpetually have Seoul in its sights precisely for that reason.

Moreover, and I hate to say this, there is a legitimate reason why the West might be worried with a unified Korea and might actually prefer the two Koreas split apart. Given that a unified Korea may accelerate a conflict with China.

So the DPRK may be the 'Devil you know' scenario.

The thing is the biggest voices for unification in the RoK were Cold War era survivors of the Korean War, or the generation that grew up in the immediate aftermath who were culturally and economically speaking very similar.

The younger generation of millenial South Koreans however share none of those cultural links, or none of those desires to 'unite a split family' as per the rhetoric going back only sofar as the 80s and 90s. Young South Koreans share nothing with their neighbours. And Young South Koreans, in what is still a deeply nationalist, highly conservative society that is the RoK see only the cost burdens of unifying with the DPRK.

Which is one big reason why you won't see unification. AS more and more of these South Korean millenials enter politics, ennter the marketplace, become increasingly visible in the idea of being the RoK spokespeople of an altogether very young nation still, the divides are going to become more expansive.

The technological, sociological, and geopolitical shift is too vast... and the conflict has gone on far too long.

There can be """peace""", there won't be unification. This is not going to be like a post-Wall Germany. Germany didn't have a civil war, and it was an autonomous nation prior WW2. Korea was not.

What both Koreas want is de-escalation. So shutting down future production of nuclear weapons... and hopefully enough time passes that those current warheads eventually get phased out. And the divisions worth of artillery get slowly mothballed as enlistment rates drop for them, and North Korea builds up its advanced industrial basis through quiet funding by China so the divide isn't so stark, and so on and so forth.

But 'unification' is decades away. And there isn't that popular shift to see it.

What you need is a process of relativistic nihilism. Where both cultures slowly shift away from the war rhetoric, and developing a self-consuming popular culture shift. Where China, the DPRK and the RoK experiencing this idea of popular consciousness outside militarism, into consumerism, or a trade federation, and open markets, free trade, or mutual aid... where you have that constant cultural and social diffusion.

And that is 30 years down the track, if ever.

For all the efforts made recently to bring North Korea to heel, I do not believe Trump should be anywhere near any negotiations.

The man is a complete idiot and is incredibly unhinged. Democracy was designed so that people like him wouldn't find themselves in power. And now he's going to stick his foot into one of the most volatile diplomatic situations the world has ever known?

If there was any sanity in the United States they would create a Truman Show scenario with Trump as Truman just so he couldn't fuck things up anymore.

BreakfastMan:

Catnip1024:

Both want to take something to their people to prove how competent and worthy of a shared Nobel Peace Prize they are.

Honestly, I kind of want Trump to get the peace prize just because of how funny it would be.

OT: We will see what actually happens. Trump is a thundering moron, but NK and SK finally seem ready for peace, so hopefully something good comes of this.

Despite Trump being a thundering moron, if this actually works Trump will have been more worthy of getting a Nobel Peace Prize than Obama was.

Decades of tip toeing around North Korea and their shenanigans and nothing good comes of it.
Trump threatens them and now there are peace talks.

A lot of people need to get over their hatred for him and give him credit for this.
The South Korean government already has.

Zontar:
And every single person who is an authority on the matter disagrees with your assessment.

...apart from the ones that don't.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/north-korea-south-korea-donald-trump-korean-war-nuclear-weapons-a8326321.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-43895428
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-to-give-trump-full-credit-on-north-korea-is-to-deny-regional-realities/

South Koreas president and foreign minister have been explicit about the fact that Trump's hardline stance, use of the military of the US, Canada, UK and Australia to enforce the embargo, and pressure placed on China to put their own pressure on NK, where critical in all this happening.

You mean the UN deserve the credit, then? Make your mind up.

Mostly China, who control nearly all NK trade. Why China recently turned the screws on NK is unclear. It has been opined by some that it is US pressure, and by others as a tool to remind NK who their real masters are. China, obviously, isn't saying.

That SK politicians are going to talk up Trump is no surprise. They need the USA to agree for a good deal, and it's run by a narcissist who needs to be buttered up. The last thing they want is to make a crotchety, unpredictable snowflake blow up their hard work just because he didn't feel they were nice enough to him. Certainly, Trump's not been that bad, either. He's been consistent in his hard stance on NK, and did the right thing to agree to talks when an opening appeared. But there's no firm evidence this is the direct result of his strategic intent at all, especially considering sanctions were continuing US policy from his predecessors. In the absence of firm evidence, why should we credit him?

Disliking Trump is one thing, but this is his victory

He can't have won because he hasn't even started the contest yet. He'll have a victory if negotiations are successfully concluded to the satisfaction of all parties; pending also, I suppose, that the long-term results of the negotiations are positive, which we won't know until several years afterwards. After all, as conservatives would claim of the Iran agreement, many deals turn out to be a bust. If we come out with a good deal, he can have clear credit then.

it's still odd to see those who claim to be the "good guys", the moral superiors of society, acting so downright reprehensibly.

Yes, both of them.

Everyone else you're implicitly railing against is merely worried Trump's going to fuck it up.

Vanilla ISIS:
Decades of tip toeing around North Korea and their shenanigans and nothing good comes of it.
Trump threatens them and now there are peace talks.

There's always talk, just, like you say, nothing good comes of it.

Now, if Trump gets an actual, lasting improvement on the Korean peninsula, good, that's definitely a mark in his favour. I'm not going to hold my breathe.

Well, maybe not: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/north-korea-reportedly-threatens-to-pull-out-us-summit-over-military-exercises-today-2018-05-15/

Fucking Bolton. Maybe not bring up "the Libyan model for disarmament" when Libya undergoes a full scale revolution complete with foreign powers bombing the crap out of it less than a decade afterward.

Zontar:

Disliking Trump is one thing, but this is his victory

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-44133308

Some victory. Plus what Jag posted above me.

Dude, is there any reason you keep religiously defending the guy who has so little respect for your country that he lied to the face of your Prime Minister for shits and giggles?

But nah, you keep talking about how much good Trump did with this. You don't get take backs. The rest of us who realize the kind of man Trump was are just going to nod our heads because Trump is such an incompetant cunt that we knew he was going to fuck it up. Maybe don't spit on a deal you made with another country right before trying to make another one that relies on people trusting you.

Someone random on facebook said "It was part of the peace talk agreement that no Max Thunder exercises would take place before the talks."
Is there any truth to that?
Because if so this is the blatant bungling incompetence we've all been waiting for from this glorious administration.

erttheking:
Dude, is there any reason you keep religiously defending the guy who has so little respect for your country that he lied to the face of your Prime Minister for shits and giggles?

Because as a right-wing nationalist, his enemies are mostly liberals, leftists, immigrants, feminists, "cucks" and "SJWs", etc.: Trudeau is therefore his enemy, and Trump his ally. It is beneficial for Trudeau to fail and Trump to succeed, because that will help the "Canadian Trump" come to power; that his own country suffers in the meantime is a necessary cost to pay. That equation changes for nationalists only if they suddenly wake up to the prospect that bellicose nationalists running other countries actually puts their country under greater difficulty and threat.

In many ways, of course, right-wing nationalists also like right-wing nationalists in other countries anyway, because the resultant tension facilitates policies of militarism, discipline, insularity, social order etc. that they love. There's risk of conflict, but war is glorious and virile, so all the better to show off how manly and heroic their boys in the armed forces are.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44242558

That is a truly crackers signature.

Baffle2:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44242558

That is a truly crackers signature.

Well so much for that. Hope Trump wasn't expecting that peace prize too badly.

Don't worry y'all, I think I'll manage to avoid fainting with surprise. In case you were going to catch me.

You were going to catch me, right?

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