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The US GOP Primary Results/Prediction thread [UPDATE: Santorum suspends campaign]

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Seekster:
Romney is actually the most likely person to pull the GOP back from the far right back to a more Reagan-style of Conservatism. Honestly I think Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney would be the healthiest thing for the GOP right now. The Tea Party is outliving its usefulness. Yes the Tea Party pulled the party right when it wanted to go left which was good but they pulled it too far to the right in the process if you ask me.

One could have said the same thing about McCain in 2008, but when he lost, the right-wing pundits claimed that the Republican Party, which had been shifting rightward since long before Reagan (at least one article I've read points to Eisenhower when the trend right-ward began), had become too moderate (despite all evidence to the contrary). If Mitt Romney loses, which is a 50/50 chance at this point, the same effect will happen again, and what few moderates remain in the party will be thrown out by the rabid base, and the GOP won't see significant power for at least a decade or more.

The Gentleman:

Seekster:
Romney is actually the most likely person to pull the GOP back from the far right back to a more Reagan-style of Conservatism. Honestly I think Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney would be the healthiest thing for the GOP right now. The Tea Party is outliving its usefulness. Yes the Tea Party pulled the party right when it wanted to go left which was good but they pulled it too far to the right in the process if you ask me.

One could have said the same thing about McCain in 2008, but when he lost, the right-wing pundits claimed that the Republican Party, which had been shifting rightward since long before Reagan (at least one article I've read points to Eisenhower when the trend right-ward began), had become too moderate (despite all evidence to the contrary). If Mitt Romney loses, which is a 50/50 chance at this point, the same effect will happen again, and what few moderates remain in the party will be thrown out by the rabid base, and the GOP won't see significant power for at least a decade or more.

Ha! Remember Romney, along with Huckabee were considered Conservative alternatives to McCain in 2008. McCain is no Conservative (fyi we are talking by the standards of American politics). The Republican party did move to the left in the later years of the Bush administration (I know, I was a member of the party around that time so I saw it myself even at the low level). That is why the Tea Party emerged. The Tea Party represents the far right of the GOP's base (probably only a small percentage of it) and came about largely to keep the Republican party from abandoning the Conservative base. They succeeded but in the process pulled the party even further to the right than it needed to be.

Yeah hey don't count a political party out no matter what. In 2008 people said the GOP was basically dead after the election, 2 years later...

Seekster:

The Gentleman:

Seekster:
Romney is actually the most likely person to pull the GOP back from the far right back to a more Reagan-style of Conservatism. Honestly I think Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney would be the healthiest thing for the GOP right now. The Tea Party is outliving its usefulness. Yes the Tea Party pulled the party right when it wanted to go left which was good but they pulled it too far to the right in the process if you ask me.

One could have said the same thing about McCain in 2008, but when he lost, the right-wing pundits claimed that the Republican Party, which had been shifting rightward since long before Reagan (at least one article I've read points to Eisenhower when the trend right-ward began), had become too moderate (despite all evidence to the contrary). If Mitt Romney loses, which is a 50/50 chance at this point, the same effect will happen again, and what few moderates remain in the party will be thrown out by the rabid base, and the GOP won't see significant power for at least a decade or more.

Ha! Remember Romney, along with Huckabee were considered Conservative alternatives to McCain in 2008. McCain is no Conservative (fyi we are talking by the standards of American politics). The Republican party did move to the left in the later years of the Bush administration (I know, I was a member of the party around that time so I saw it myself even at the low level). That is why the Tea Party emerged. The Tea Party represents the far right of the GOP's base (probably only a small percentage of it) and came about largely to keep the Republican party from abandoning the Conservative base. They succeeded but in the process pulled the party even further to the right than it needed to be.

Yeah hey don't count a political party out no matter what. In 2008 people said the GOP was basically dead after the election, 2 years later...

His platform in 2008 is virtually the same as all the current GOP candidates with the exception of Paul. And his positions on the Bush Tax cut and other "maverick moments" do not necessarily mean he's not conservative. It only means that he didn't follow the party line. I challenge you to actually list five things that would disqualify him as a conservative.

And the attempt by the establishment to moderate between 2006-2008 was done by those who clearly saw the consequences of the prior congresses far-right policies and realized that they would have to change details of the party platform to remain attractive to voters. In trying to save the GOP, they were thrown out.

On an entirely different note, I'll update the OP with the Iowa results at around 8a GMT (3a Eastern US).

The current Iowa caucus results are interesting. Santorum, Romney and Paul all within 100 votes at last update

The Gentleman:

Seekster:

The Gentleman:
One could have said the same thing about McCain in 2008, but when he lost, the right-wing pundits claimed that the Republican Party, which had been shifting rightward since long before Reagan (at least one article I've read points to Eisenhower when the trend right-ward began), had become too moderate (despite all evidence to the contrary). If Mitt Romney loses, which is a 50/50 chance at this point, the same effect will happen again, and what few moderates remain in the party will be thrown out by the rabid base, and the GOP won't see significant power for at least a decade or more.

Ha! Remember Romney, along with Huckabee were considered Conservative alternatives to McCain in 2008. McCain is no Conservative (fyi we are talking by the standards of American politics). The Republican party did move to the left in the later years of the Bush administration (I know, I was a member of the party around that time so I saw it myself even at the low level). That is why the Tea Party emerged. The Tea Party represents the far right of the GOP's base (probably only a small percentage of it) and came about largely to keep the Republican party from abandoning the Conservative base. They succeeded but in the process pulled the party even further to the right than it needed to be.

Yeah hey don't count a political party out no matter what. In 2008 people said the GOP was basically dead after the election, 2 years later...

His platform in 2008 is virtually the same as all the current GOP candidates with the exception of Paul. And his positions on the Bush Tax cut and other "maverick moments" do not necessarily mean he's not conservative. It only means that he didn't follow the party line. I challenge you to actually list five things that would disqualify him as a conservative.

And the attempt by the establishment to moderate between 2006-2008 was done by those who clearly saw the consequences of the prior congresses far-right policies and realized that they would have to change details of the party platform to remain attractive to voters. In trying to save the GOP, they were thrown out.

On an entirely different note, I'll update the OP with the Iowa results at around 8a GMT (3a Eastern US).

Perhaps its too harsh to say he isnt a conservative, I suppose technically he is though its painful to even type that. You are mistaken about him having the same platform in 2008 as the candidates today have in 2012. Disregarding McCain's stances on issues that arent really relevant anymore here are some differences:

http://phoenix.about.com/od/politiciansfromarizona/a/johnmccain_5.htm

***

John McCain on Immigration

-Supports an increase in the number of visas issued for agricultural workers.

-Would relax restrictions barring legal immigrants from using social programs (e.g. public housing, food stamps).

-Supports immigration reform allowing willing employers & employees to connect, while protecting American jobs & securing our borders.

John McCain on the Budget

-We should spend more money on: defense, education, homeland security, medical research, national parks

-We should spend less money on: arts, space exploration programs

-We are spending about the right amount on: environment, international aid, law enforcement, public health services, scientific research, transportation and highways, welfare

John McCain on Taxes

-A married couple filing jointly should pay the same taxes as if they were an unmarried couple filing separately.

-Does not support permanent repeal of the federal estate tax, or eliminating taxes on dividends paid to individual investors.

John McCain on Environment and Energy

-Believes that we should strengthen the regulation and enforcement of the Clean Water Act and Clean Air Act.

-States should compensate citizens when environmental regulations limit uses of privately-owned land.

-Believes that we should strengthen emission controls and fuel efficiency standards on all gasoline and diesel-powered engines, including cars, trucks, and sport utility vehicles. Encourages further development and use of alternative fuels to reduce pollution.

-Supports the use of ethanol as an alternative fuel.

-Supports the U.S. re-entering the Kyoto treaty process to limit global warming.

-Supports Healthy Forests legislation encouraging thinning in areas where communities exist near forests.

John McCain on Guns

-Believes we should maintain and strengthen the current level of enforcement of existing federal restrictions on the purchase and possession of guns.
Supports the right of citizens to carry concealed guns.

These are only differences mind you, overall you are right in that there are more similarities than differences but there are some very key differences. McCain was a very very poor choice in 2008.

***

If the 2006-2008 crowd were trying to save the GOP...nice job. I am not a huge fan of Boehner but he is an infinitely better option than his predecessor (in someways I pity him given what he has to put up with from some of the Freshman in the House).

TheGuy(wantstobe):
The current Iowa caucus results are interesting. Santorum, Romney and Paul all within 100 votes at last update

Yeah and CNN is projecting that Barrack Obama will win the Democratic Caucus in Iowa. Wow way to go out on a limb there guys.

OOoh entrance poll data...wait whatever happened to exit polls...oh right its a Caucus.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/ia

So yeah big surprise that younger voters said they were more likely to support Paul.

Also lower income people were more likely to vote for Paul.

Paul wins more Independents than anyone else by far but he has about half of the support from Republicans that Romney and Santorum have.

LOL those who said they made their choice before December largely support Paul while the more recent decision makers support Santorum.

Some interesting things there but honestly its just good fun, exit...sorry entrance polls can be notoriously misleading.

Oh please dear God don't let Paul win, I know he doesnt have a shot of winning the nomination but there will be no living with Ron Paul zealots if them an wins Iowa.

Seekster:
OOoh entrance poll data...wait whatever happened to exit polls...oh right its a Caucus.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/ia

So yeah big surprise that younger voters said they were more likely to support Paul.

Also lower income people were more likely to vote for Paul.

Paul wins more Independents than anyone else by far but he has about half of the support from Republicans that Romney and Santorum have.

LOL those who said they made their choice before December largely support Paul while the more recent decision makers support Santorum.

Some interesting things there but honestly its just good fun, exit...sorry entrance polls can be notoriously misleading.

Oh please dear God don't let Paul win, I know he doesnt have a shot of winning the nomination but there will be no living with Ron Paul zealots if them an wins Iowa.

Paul is falling into third place behind Romney in first and santorum in second. It's likely to remain that way. Surprise of the night is huntsman getting into triple digits

TheGuy(wantstobe):

Seekster:
OOoh entrance poll data...wait whatever happened to exit polls...oh right its a Caucus.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/ia

So yeah big surprise that younger voters said they were more likely to support Paul.

Also lower income people were more likely to vote for Paul.

Paul wins more Independents than anyone else by far but he has about half of the support from Republicans that Romney and Santorum have.

LOL those who said they made their choice before December largely support Paul while the more recent decision makers support Santorum.

Some interesting things there but honestly its just good fun, exit...sorry entrance polls can be notoriously misleading.

Oh please dear God don't let Paul win, I know he doesnt have a shot of winning the nomination but there will be no living with Ron Paul zealots if them an wins Iowa.

Paul is falling into third place behind Romney in first and santorum in second. It's likely to remain that way. Surprise of the night is huntsman getting into triple digits

Oh please he would at least get that, Huntsman I mean. He is still about 3,000 votes behind Bachmann. Huntsman is banking on New Hampshire anyway.

I think Santorum will likely win as most of the votes they are waiting on are in rural counties.

For reasons I'm not going to state, I'm still hoping Paul can pull through.

Wow, with 88% reporting, Santorum is leading Romney by...19 votes. Yes 19, that is not a typo.

I called this on Facebook as Romney in a squeaker, I might be right.

The open question is where it goes from here, whether someone as extreme as Santorum would be able to mop up everyone who dislikes Romney (and who doesn't like Paul or, say, Huntsman). Santorum's, err, surge (if you've ever Googled "Santorum", you'll understand why I'm chortling at that, and if you haven't, please do-- best Google-bombing ever) came as something of a last-minute surprise to most observers and most of the worry for the Romney people was still decisively stopping Gingrich. If Santorum actually wins this, or hell, even if he doesn't, expect the barrage of anti-Santorum ads from the Romney superPACs. Santorum has no money and Romney is rolling in it.

I still think this nomination is Romney's to lose. If Santorum looks good to the teavangelist wing, it's only because he's the only one of these clowns that hasn't been thoroughly pulverized in the media vetting process. He's toast unless he can woo enough establishment types to give his campaign legs.

(It says something about the GOP-- a lot of somethings, and none of them good-- that Huntsman isn't walking off with this thing. Obama was actively worried about him at first, and for damn good reason. Romney *might* beat Obama, I think Huntsman absolutely *would* beat Obama. He's moderate, he's sharp, he's mature, and he's Not Obama. He's way more presidential looking than any of the rest of these people. But he's not in any way an ideologue, which immediately eliminates him. Obama's gain and the country's loss that a major party behaves this way.)

Holy Crap, there is close and then there is this.

With 99% of Iowa reporting, Santorum leads Romney, by 5 votes. Yes 5 as in five. Not 50, 5.

Santorum surges from behind!

*giggle snort*

Ol'frothy some how managed to win a badly organized un-secure poll with only $120,000 in campaigning and an instant surge. Mind blowing.

It really says a lot about the Republican voters in Iowa doesn't it. They voted for a man that puts homosexuality alongside pedophilia and bestiality. This is the man who just the other day said that he did not want to make the lives of black people better by giving them welfare. No joke, he did not say poor people or unemployed people, he said black people.

When you look at this entire thing you cannot help but feel that something is seriously wrong with America. They do not actually win anything from Iowa at this stage. The delegates for Iowa are not chosen until April/June and if a winner has been decided by then they will tow the line. Huckabee won Iowa in 2008, all the delegates went to McCain. It makes zero sense to put so much emphasis on a vote that A)does not matter, B) represents the far right wing and C) accounts for less than 1% of the population.

The only reason Iowa matters is because it can be a boost to the campaigns of those that do well...because Americans are gullible. In this day and age you have to be pretty out of touch to think that Iowa actually means something....I mean seriously....it's fucking Iowa.

Santorum wasn't considered a serious contender and therefore he wasn't nearly as much under scrutiny as the other candidates.
For the GOP's sake, let's assume that Santorum will utterly fail and be replaced with Romney after all. For Obama's sake, let's assume that Santorum has peaked at the right moment, will win the candidacy and then be destroyed during the campaign for the general election for his bigotry and radicalism.
Really, the GOP field is in such a state that whoever peaks at the right moment gets the nomination before they fall down again the moment they open their mouth too much. The exceptions to that appear to be Romney who many people don't like but a strong base tends to support and who also would have the best chances against Obama, and Ron Paul of course whose base is smaller but extremely devoted and steady.
Anyway, yes, "surging Santorum" isn't exactly a pleasant mental picture.

Updated with Iowa results. Not quite ready to put the Rick Perry campaign into the deceased section yet.

Seriously, an 8-vote margin of victory for Iowa.

As a certain sci-fi crossover movie poster stated: Whoever wins, we lose.

or rather 'America loses', since I'm not even from America.

[double post]

my thoughts on iowa. a massive boost to santorum, i dont see how he could possible win it, but he is almost guaranteed as better showing than what was expected of him a week ago. newt is gone, hes not going to do well in the next 2 and that will end it for him. bachmann and huntsman were never in it anyway so they are just taking up room. perry will have to have an extremely strong showing in the south to even have a chance, he is about 95% done right now. that leaves romney and paul. paul could win every caucus from here on out by 20000 votes and the republicans still wont let him run so romney is really the biggest winner, with perry and newt being his only real threats and both of them are almost down and out.

Romney wins by 8 votes, you know their are people who were going to vote Santorum that are hating themselves right now.

I did love the DNC chairwoman trying to pass this off as a disaster for Romney. You spin me right round baby right round.

Sorry for the double post but Bachmann seems to be dropping out and Perry will likely follow soon.

Sadly, it will be Romney. You know why? It won't be anything to do with caucuses or how the public votes. None of that matters. The only thing that matters is who the media supports. Our media are all agenda pushing whores for the political and corporate machines. All of them. Fox, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, NBC, CBS will all get behind Romney until the presidential election comes around. Then everyone but Fox will line up behind Obama, and Fox will get behind Romney.

None of this matters. We're fucked no matter how you sell it. Democrat or Republican. None of that shit matters anymore. They're driving us all over a cliff, and all we can do is hang on for the ride.

I hope you all enjoyed your freedom while you had it, because they're taking it all away. Patriot Act was just the beginning. Now we have SOPA, and President Obama just signed into law a provision that allows the government to detain US citizens INDEFINITELY, and WITHOUT A WARRANT. It's only going to get worse, and it doesn't matter who is in charge.

I hope I'm not around to see the final collapse, but I'll be ready when it happens. I hope it was worth it.

Seekster:
Sorry for the double post but Bachmann seems to be dropping out and Perry will likely follow soon.

Perry has since stated that he will continue in South Carolina, which is not too surprising given that he still has $15 million in his campaign warchest. OP has been updated with news of Bachmann's drop out.

On a semi-related note, I got really angry at her for the first time (as I'm normally somewhere between disappointed and glee whenever she talks knowing full well the amount of bullshit she says) when she said she wasn't a politician. IF YOU HOLD OR ARE RUNNING FOR ELECTED OFFICE, YOU ARE A POLITICIAN BY DEFINITION!

The Gentleman:

Seekster:
Sorry for the double post but Bachmann seems to be dropping out and Perry will likely follow soon.

Perry has since stated that he will continue in South Carolina, which is not too surprising given that he still has $15 million in his campaign warchest. OP has been updated with news of Bachmann's drop out.

On a semi-related note, I got really angry at her for the first time (as I'm normally somewhere between disappointed and glee whenever she talks knowing full well the amount of bullshit she says) when she said she wasn't a politician. IF YOU HOLD OR ARE RUNNING FOR ELECTED OFFICE, YOU ARE A POLITICIAN BY DEFINITION!

Yeah I saw that but Ill still say he will get out soon because if he can't do well in South Carolina then he is kind of sunk.

Polling data shows that politicians are unpopular therefore a politician will try and say they are not a politician. Welcome to politics.

Seekster:

The Gentleman:

Seekster:
Sorry for the double post but Bachmann seems to be dropping out and Perry will likely follow soon.

Perry has since stated that he will continue in South Carolina, which is not too surprising given that he still has $15 million in his campaign warchest. OP has been updated with news of Bachmann's drop out.

On a semi-related note, I got really angry at her for the first time (as I'm normally somewhere between disappointed and glee whenever she talks knowing full well the amount of bullshit she says) when she said she wasn't a politician. IF YOU HOLD OR ARE RUNNING FOR ELECTED OFFICE, YOU ARE A POLITICIAN BY DEFINITION!

Yeah I saw that but Ill still say he will get out soon because if he can't do well in South Carolina then he is kind of sunk.

Polling data shows that politicians are unpopular therefore a politician will try and say they are not a politician. Welcome to politics.

Except for her (who is essentially known for saying crazy shit on television that panders to the paranoid and conspiracy theorists, who speaks in soundbites, and, by some fact checkers estimate, doesn't even speak the truth half the time she's on a debate stage), it's such a boldfaced lie that it is almost worthy of the Barbra Walters spit take.

The Gentleman:

Seekster:

The Gentleman:

Perry has since stated that he will continue in South Carolina, which is not too surprising given that he still has $15 million in his campaign warchest. OP has been updated with news of Bachmann's drop out.

On a semi-related note, I got really angry at her for the first time (as I'm normally somewhere between disappointed and glee whenever she talks knowing full well the amount of bullshit she says) when she said she wasn't a politician. IF YOU HOLD OR ARE RUNNING FOR ELECTED OFFICE, YOU ARE A POLITICIAN BY DEFINITION!

Yeah I saw that but Ill still say he will get out soon because if he can't do well in South Carolina then he is kind of sunk.

Polling data shows that politicians are unpopular therefore a politician will try and say they are not a politician. Welcome to politics.

Except for her (who is essentially known for saying crazy shit on television that panders to the paranoid and conspiracy theorists, who speaks in soundbites, and, by some fact checkers estimate, doesn't even speak the truth half the time she's on a debate stage), it's such a boldfaced lie that it is almost worthy of the Barbra Walters spit take.

I repeat, welcome to politics, its a dirty dirty game. Yeah I don't like Bachamnn either but just because she is a bad liar doesnt make her any more of a liar than most people in politics. She is a damned liar though.

Seekster:

The Gentleman:

Seekster:

Yeah I saw that but Ill still say he will get out soon because if he can't do well in South Carolina then he is kind of sunk.

Polling data shows that politicians are unpopular therefore a politician will try and say they are not a politician. Welcome to politics.

Except for her (who is essentially known for saying crazy shit on television that panders to the paranoid and conspiracy theorists, who speaks in soundbites, and, by some fact checkers estimate, doesn't even speak the truth half the time she's on a debate stage), it's such a boldfaced lie that it is almost worthy of the Barbra Walters spit take.

I repeat, welcome to politics, its a dirty dirty game. Yeah I don't like Bachamnn either but just because she is a bad liar doesnt make her any more of a liar than most people in politics. She is a damned liar though.

see the problem with bachmann though is you get a sense that she is not a liar, she actually believes the shit she says. it was the same problem with cain.

Not G. Ivingname:
*Flame shield activated*

Ron Paul is the one I want to be president, being the only one both committed (and maybe insane enough) to curb our debt and get us out of the Middle East (and stop us from going to Iran, which we are making a nose dive towards).

Romney, however, looks like the one who is going to be the nominee. However, the shifts in Iowa show that it is really anybody's game.

If I HAD to choose between the Republicans I'd go with Ron Paul. Why? Because he's his own man. He doesn't just say what people want to hear. He's not afraid to go against his party and that's why Fox News HATES him. And anyone Fox News hates I would like to buy a drink. Even if I don't agree with their point of view.

Besides, if he got elected, Fox News would be required to do a 180 and completely love him and shower every word he says and every action he does with unending praise.

That would be hilarious!!

reonhato:

Seekster:

The Gentleman:
Except for her (who is essentially known for saying crazy shit on television that panders to the paranoid and conspiracy theorists, who speaks in soundbites, and, by some fact checkers estimate, doesn't even speak the truth half the time she's on a debate stage), it's such a boldfaced lie that it is almost worthy of the Barbra Walters spit take.

I repeat, welcome to politics, its a dirty dirty game. Yeah I don't like Bachamnn either but just because she is a bad liar doesnt make her any more of a liar than most people in politics. She is a damned liar though.

see the problem with bachmann though is you get a sense that she is not a liar, she actually believes the shit she says. it was the same problem with cain.

Oh no she is a liar, but she also believes some of the crazy stuff she says. Of that I am quite convinced.

Seekster:
Oh no she is a liar, but she also believes some of the crazy stuff she says. Of that I am quite convinced.

I am personally terrified she's ever been reelected, but hardly surprised. I hear her status as a media figure nets her a lot of out-of-state donations for her House reelection campaigns.

This is an amazing and useful thread.

It makes me proud to be part of this website.

I'm not being sarcastic either. It's very useful and very impressive. Kudos.

By the way for the record, there are going to be 2 debates prior to New Hampshire. I will not be doing a Play by Play because I don't expect the candidates to say anything they havent said before. Though I think the debates will give Santorum a chance to make an ass out of himself.

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