Alea iacta est - prepare for Europe's downfall

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The Report That Will Blow Up The Eurozone

Germany and the Netherlands are likely to quit the eurozone rather than swallow an indefinite number of 'unrequited transfers' to the union's crisis-stricken nations, according to Charles Dumas, chief economist at Lombard Street Research.

Speaking at an event in central London, he said that before joining the single currency, German incomes had stayed level but their purchasing power had increased as the Deutschmark appreciated. With the weaker euro, the economist said, they have seen 'tremendous' wage restraint, leading to huge growth in German firms' market share but 'no serious growth of the economy' and a squeeze on disposable incomes. Meanwhile, consumption rose elsewhere in the eurozone, he said.

'So what you're actually dealing with here... is a German population which has had a rotten deal - and that's why they're all so angry' noted Dumas, who is also chairman of the macroeconomic forecasting consultancy. Branding the monetary union a 'suicide pact', he continued: 'So what this exercise in uniting Europe has achieved is to divide Europe.'

~

In Holland, where I'll be for a few more days, there's a "rogue" right-wing party named PVV (Party for Freedom). It has no cabinet ministers, but the minority moderate right-wing government needs its support to stay in the saddle. The PVV, like other European right-wingers, is, among many other things, against much of what the European Union stands for. It's certainly against the Euro, and the bailouts with Dutch taxpayer money of countries like Greece and Portugal.

A few months ago, the PVV announced they had commissioned a report from British financial consultancy firm Lombard Street Research on the economic consequences of staying in the Eurozone versus returning to the guilder.

That report is about to be published "within days". It will prove to be highly explosive material. And the PVV will do all it possibly can to make sure it receives a lot of media attention. It may tear down the incumbent government, which is a heavy advocate of all things Europe, and which will have to quit once the PVV support dies, but for that party that's not the no. 1 concern.

And if and when Holland has a large scale discussion on the report and the issues it raises, Germany won't be able to ignore it and stay behind. And then, neither will France.

~

But the people of Germany and Holland are already very nervous about the fact that they face austerity and budget cuts while billions of euros are transferred to southern Europe. Up until now, the fear of economic disaster predicted in unison by government leaders have kept them quiet. Now that a reputable economic research firm flatly contradicts these predictions, and states that, instead, it's staying within the Eurozone that will be the far more costly option, the people will grow increasingly restless.

~

Governments in Berlin and The Hague will have a lot of explaining to do. They have to do so against a backdrop of (near-)failing Greek debt swap talks, which will at the very least force them to admit that they have a lost tens of billions in taxpayer money to Club Med countries already.

With a second Portugal bailout waiting in the wings. And lots of negative news on Italy and Spain. And more domestic budget cuts.

They'll realize that their governments have painted far too rosy pictures about the issues so far. And they'll expect them to deliver more of the same. This is what we call a receding trust horizon.

It's not the report alone, it's the entire combination of factors. The report will "merely" serve as the catalyst that blows up the powder keg. It may take a few months, but it will happen. The publicity hungry rogue PVV party that commissioned it, followed by anti-Eurozone voices elsewhere, will make sure of that.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-report-that-will-blow-up-the-eurozone-2012-1

So... the Maya's were right! :D Maybe the Arab 'Spring' will be followed by a European 'Spring'. Although I don't think European leaders are going to be so quick in calling this a 'spring'.

And because letters are boring, good and short YouTube videos are way better in hyping people up and making them afraid...


Financial collapse;


Followed by Societal collapse;


Followed by War, war never changes;

Followed by... wait 99% of us are already dead at that moment. Well, everyone is the 1%, #Occupiers can be happy.

So, are we already afraid?

EDIT:

"The eurozone is a slow-motion train wreck," Mr Roubini said. "Countries - and not just Greece - are insolvent. I think Greece will leave the eurozone in the next 12 months, and Portugal after."
The New York University professor of economics was speaking at one of the final sessions of the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos.
"There is a 50pc chance that the eurozone will break up in the next three to five years. This doesn't look like a G20 world it looks like a G-Zero world because there is no agreement on global imbalances, how to change the international monetary system, international trade, banking regulation, on all the fundamental issues."
The economist also warned that if the US and Iran went to war, oil prices would spike 50pc and there'll be a global recession.
"In the UK there is recession, even the US is not doing great, in India there's a slowdown and they're worried about that. In China, exports, infrastructure investment, real estate is slowing down, so there'll be a significant slowdown in China this year," he concluded.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9046365/Eurozone-will-collapse-this-year-says-Nouriel-Roubini.html

They do that, and they ruin the entire worlds economy. They won't do that until the whole Economic Crises is fixed. Heck, them leaving would ruin their economies rather then fix it up, so if they did that, they just committed Economic Suicide.

Uh... Danyal, I'm just going to paraphrase my history/social studies teacher here:

"People who think that Germany will leave the European union are foolish and fail to see the big picture. Germany's main economic gains come from trade, and most of that trade is within the European union. leaving the union would lead to a sickening drop in revenue due to levies on international trade. It would take far, far more disadvantages than we have now for it to even remotely seem like a good idea to anyone who understands the situation."

He does this kind of shit for a living, so I'm kinda sure he's got a point. Germany does make most of its money by exporting within the EU, and it will essentially ALWAYS be a profitable arrangement for them. There is no reason why they should even consider leaving, and German politicians aren't fucking morons, so I don't see this happening. The idea that Germany would leave the European Union is hilariously poorly-thought-out.

What Mattress and Stagnant above me said. The entire economic co-operation and euro-pact has created a co-dependency within the EMU (even more so in the Euro-countries) which means that if countries start pulling out of it, they are not only bringing economic disaster down upon themselves but to everyone in the EMU and in extension probably the entire world.

It isn't just as simple as switching over to a new/old currency either. Pulling out of the euro co-operation is basically like completely re-booting your economy at this point, something that no country, especially not one that is doing as well as the Netherlands, is willing to do before they are on the brink of utter collapse.

Is it a troublesome position? Yes. Is it the end of the EMU and the EU? Probably not. The end of the world? Most certainly not.

Mr.Mattress:
They do that, and they ruin the entire worlds economy. They won't do that until the whole Economic Crises is fixed. Heck, them leaving would ruin their economies rather then fix it up, so if they did that, they just committed Economic Suicide.

Stagnant:
Uh... Danyal, I'm just going to paraphrase my history/social studies teacher here:

"People who think that Germany will leave the European union are foolish and fail to see the big picture. Germany's main economic gains come from trade, and most of that trade is within the European union. leaving the union would lead to a sickening drop in revenue due to levies on international trade. It would take far, far more disadvantages than we have now for it to even remotely seem like a good idea to anyone who understands the situation."

He does this kind of shit for a living, so I'm kinda sure he's got a point. Germany does make most of its money by exporting within the EU, and it will essentially ALWAYS be a profitable arrangement for them. There is no reason why they should even consider leaving, and German politicians aren't fucking morons, so I don't see this happening. The idea that Germany would leave the European Union is hilariously poorly-thought-out.

The article points out that those scare tactics don't work anymore. The price that we, Dutch people and Germans, have to pay to keep the European Union standing will seem to be higher than the price we have to pay when it falls.

But the people of Germany and Holland are already very nervous about the fact that they face austerity and budget cuts while billions of euros are transferred to southern Europe. Up until now, the fear of economic disaster predicted in unison by government leaders have kept them quiet. Now that a reputable economic research firm flatly contradicts these predictions, and states that, instead, it's staying within the Eurozone that will be the far more costly option, the people will grow increasingly restless.

EDIT:

Gethsemani:
What Mattress and Stagnant above me said.

What I responded to them in this post.

I read as far as it took to get the name of the firm, and then I went a'digging. Hrrrrm, quelle surprise; links to the UK Independence Party(UKIP), known for putting out "research" which walks a pencil-thin line between questionable validity and outright libertarian propagandising; founded by a man who is a committed Euro-Skeptic, a former Tory Treasury advisor, a former UKIP candidate, and is now the Chairman of an even-further-right Libertarian think-tank; currently being run by a man who was a Managing Director of Mergers and Acquisitions at JP Morgan, who also has links to the Conservative Party, and who has expressed repeated Euro-Skeptic sentiments both in his books and his editorials for The Economist/Financial Times.

So yeah, outside of the loony-fringe righties to whom the ECHR is a tyrannical pedo-enablement group and who idolise Lord "Bunkum" Monkham, I suspect this report is going to be sensationalised for a day or two as all modern press are wont to do, then quickly either forgotten about or discredited. I highly doubt a report from a partisan anti-Europe think-tank is going to be taken terribly seriously by any of the actual players in these talks.

Danyal:

The article points out that those scare tactics don't work anymore. The price that we, Dutch people and Germans, have to pay to keep the European Union standing will seem to be higher than the price we have to pay when it falls.

But the people of Germany and Holland are already very nervous about the fact that they face austerity and budget cuts while billions of euros are transferred to southern Europe. Up until now, the fear of economic disaster predicted in unison by government leaders have kept them quiet. Now that a reputable economic research firm flatly contradicts these predictions, and states that, instead, it's staying within the Eurozone that will be the far more costly option, the people will grow increasingly restless.

Okay, so basically, Germany and the Dutch Countries will come out fine... As the rest of the world and the rest of Europe Crumble into Economic Decay... You can't deny that the Eurozone is important. Even if it's more costly to stay within the Eurozone then to pull out, that doesn't mean it won't f up the economy if they do leave.

All I get from this article is that "They'll save money from leaving the European Currency!", not "Leaving the Eurozone is Fine! That won't ruin anyone else's economy at all!". Hence, I shall believe it will ruining the worlds economy, even if it keeps theirs afloat.

Magichead:
I read as far as it took to get the name of the firm, and then I went a'digging. Hrrrrm, quelle surprise; links to the UK Independence Party(UKIP), known for putting out "research" which walks a pencil-thin line between questionable validity and outright libertarian propagandising; founded by a man who is a committed Euro-Skeptic, a former Tory Treasury advisor, a former UKIP candidate, and is now the Chairman of an even-further-right Libertarian think-tank; currently being run by a man who was a Managing Director of Mergers and Acquisitions at JP Morgan, who also has links to the Conservative Party, and who has expressed repeated Euro-Skeptic sentiments both in his books and his editorials for The Economist/Financial Times.

So yeah, outside of the loony-fringe righties to whom the ECHR is a tyrannical pedo-enablement group and who idolise Lord "Bunkum" Monkham, I suspect this report is going to be sensationalised for a day or two as all modern press are wont to do, then quickly either forgotten about or discredited. I highly doubt a report from a partisan anti-Europe think-tank is going to be taken terribly seriously by any of the actual players in these talks.

'Name of the firm'? Those who do the report or those who write the article?
Because about the writers of the article;

Her academic qualifications include a BSc in biology from Carleton University in Canada (where she focused primarily on neuroscience and psychology), a post-graduate diploma in air and water pollution control, the common professional examination in law and an LLM in international law in development from the University of Warwick in the UK. She was granted the University Medal for the top science graduate in 1988 and the law school prize for the top law school graduate in 1997.

http://www.businessinsider.com/author/the-automatic-earth

About Business Insider;

Its original works are sometimes cited by other, larger, publications such as The New York Times[1] and domestic news outlets like National Public Radio.[2]

Henry Blodget is the CEO and Editor-In-Chief, a Yale graduate who previously worked on Wall Street before being barred from the securities industry after a conviction for securities fraud.[7] Senior writer Dan Frommer is a Northwestern graduate who joined from Forbes.

The Clusterstock section appeared in the Time article "Best 25 Financial Blogs"[8], and the Silicon Alley Insider section in the PC Magazine article "Our Favorite Blogs 2009".[9]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_Insider

But indeed, as far as I know, the creators of the report that is going to be published in a few days are Eurosceptic. This doesn't make them 'wrong' or any less reliable that what politicians claim nowadays.

And the article is not about the reliability of the report anyways; it's about the repercussions it will cause.

Mr.Mattress:

Okay, so basically, Germany and the Dutch Countries will come out fine... As the rest of the world and the rest of Europe Crumble into Economic Decay... You can't deny that the Eurozone is important. Even if it's more costly to stay within the Eurozone then to pull out, that doesn't mean it won't f up the economy if they do leave.

All I get from this article is that "They'll save money from leaving the European Currency!", not "Leaving the Eurozone is Fine! That won't ruin anyone else's economy at all!". Hence, I shall believe it will ruining the worlds economy, even if it keeps theirs afloat.

No, I don't think Germany and the Netherlands are going to come out fine. They're/we're going to have to choose between...
-a crisis caused by throwing all our money into Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain
-a crisis caused by 'abandoning' those countries and destroying the European Union

I think most of the people are going to choose for the egoistic option.

Governments in Berlin and The Hague will have a lot of explaining to do. They have to do so against a backdrop of (near-)failing Greek debt swap talks, which will at the very least force them to admit that they have a lost tens of billions in taxpayer money to Club Med countries already.

With a second Portugal bailout waiting in the wings. And lots of negative news on Italy and Spain. And more domestic budget cuts.

They'll realize that their governments have painted far too rosy pictures about the issues so far. And they'll expect them to deliver more of the same. This is what we call a receding trust horizon.

Danyal:

Magichead:
I read as far as it took to get the name of the firm, and then I went a'digging. Hrrrrm, quelle surprise; links to the UK Independence Party(UKIP), known for putting out "research" which walks a pencil-thin line between questionable validity and outright libertarian propagandising; founded by a man who is a committed Euro-Skeptic, a former Tory Treasury advisor, a former UKIP candidate, and is now the Chairman of an even-further-right Libertarian think-tank; currently being run by a man who was a Managing Director of Mergers and Acquisitions at JP Morgan, who also has links to the Conservative Party, and who has expressed repeated Euro-Skeptic sentiments both in his books and his editorials for The Economist/Financial Times.

So yeah, outside of the loony-fringe righties to whom the ECHR is a tyrannical pedo-enablement group and who idolise Lord "Bunkum" Monkham, I suspect this report is going to be sensationalised for a day or two as all modern press are wont to do, then quickly either forgotten about or discredited. I highly doubt a report from a partisan anti-Europe think-tank is going to be taken terribly seriously by any of the actual players in these talks.

'Name of the firm'? Those who do the report or those who write the article?
Because about the writers of the article;

Her academic qualifications include a BSc in biology from Carleton University in Canada (where she focused primarily on neuroscience and psychology), a post-graduate diploma in air and water pollution control, the common professional examination in law and an LLM in international law in development from the University of Warwick in the UK. She was granted the University Medal for the top science graduate in 1988 and the law school prize for the top law school graduate in 1997.

http://www.businessinsider.com/author/the-automatic-earth

About Business Insider;

Its original works are sometimes cited by other, larger, publications such as The New York Times[1] and domestic news outlets like National Public Radio.[2]

Henry Blodget is the CEO and Editor-In-Chief, a Yale graduate who previously worked on Wall Street before being barred from the securities industry after a conviction for securities fraud.[7] Senior writer Dan Frommer is a Northwestern graduate who joined from Forbes.

The Clusterstock section appeared in the Time article "Best 25 Financial Blogs"[8], and the Silicon Alley Insider section in the PC Magazine article "Our Favorite Blogs 2009".[9]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_Insider

But indeed, as far as I know, the creators of the report that is going to be published in a few days are Eurosceptic. This doesn't make them 'wrong' or any less reliable that what politicians claim nowadays.

And the article is not about the reliability of the report anyways; it's about the repercussions it will cause.

You're well aware I'm referring to the authors of the report.

And actually, if a far-right Libertarian think-tank with a Euro-Skeptic agenda and a proven history, both by individual members and as an organisation, of putting out research which is unreliable, then I'd say that bloody well does make them less credible.

And if the report is propaganda, and those who run the show in Europe, or even the fact-checkers at the major news outlets, are on the ball(which certainly appears to be the case, despite the attempts of the right-wing tabloids to portray them all as bumbling fools), then I fail to see how it's going to have any repercussions beyond those which occur every time a partisan Euro-Skeptic political party use a partisan Euro-Skeptic economic think-tank to produce some spurious bullshit; it'll get a couple of "Oh my, what if?" stories on the major news, if that, and then be relegated to the foetid depths of online Libertaria, there forever to be wanked over as "proof" that everyone but them are wrong.

I don't even particularly like the EU right now, I think their response to this crisis is as fucking awful as the right-wing in my own country - I just don't see how this rubbish is going to be anywhere near as big a deal as you claim, and I just don't like lying shits who use academic qualifications as cover for political ideology(not you, the report authors).

Magichead:

You're well aware I'm referring to the authors of the report.

And actually, if a far-right Libertarian think-tank with a Euro-Skeptic agenda and a proven history, both by individual members and as an organisation, of putting out research which is unreliable, then I'd say that bloody well does make them less credible.

And if the report is propaganda, and those who run the show in Europe, or even the fact-checkers at the major news outlets, are on the ball(which certainly appears to be the case, despite the attempts of the right-wing tabloids to portray them all as bumbling fools), then I fail to see how it's going to have any repercussions beyond those which occur every time a partisan Euro-Skeptic political party use a partisan Euro-Skeptic economic think-tank to produce some spurious bullshit; it'll get a couple of "Oh my, what if?" stories on the major news, if that, and then be relegated to the foetid depths of online Libertaria, there forever to be wanked over as "proof" that everyone but them are wrong.

I don't even particularly like the EU right now, I think their response to this crisis is as fucking awful as the right-wing in my own country - I just don't see how this rubbish is going to be anywhere near as big a deal as you claim, and I just don't like lying shits who use academic qualifications as cover for political ideology(not you, the report authors).

Could you give me some sources to back-up your claim that they have a history of unreliable research?
Also... our own Financial Minister has been as unreliable as someone can be. Six months, and he'll be arguing against his own statements.
He can't criticize the economy/companies/Europe because it would cause trust to plummet.
But because the crisis keeps on worsening, his lies are finally confronted by the truth - over and over again.
-We will only need a small bailout!
Wait it will be bigger.
-We will only need one bailout!
Oh wait we'll need more.
-It'll solve the crisis!
Oh no it doesn't.
-We won't need more austerity measures!
F*ck we do.

So if it is a well-written, well-researched report, it could have huge effects on our government.
PVV may actually decide to 'end' this cabinet. Europe and a possible solution will be a major theme for the next elections, and this debate will cause a lot of unrest, in the Netherlands, but also in Germany and France, as the article states.

Danyal:
[stuff]

Excuse me for being blunt, but I don't give a flying fuck if the pope himself wrote this article. Is it by German authors who actually have something to say about politics? Does it contain a cost-benefit analysis of severely hampering Germany's main source of income (export)? Does it go into details about how big of a deal this is for germany?

Oh, wait - no it doesn't. It's a propaganda piece by a british author (first red flag) who belongs to a strongly anti-EU group (second red flag) talking about a report commissioned by a rogue, right-wing anti-EU political party (thid red flag). Danyal, you have no idea what you're talking about in terms of Germany, so kindly stop acting as though you do, and as though your source has any form of merit.

Stagnant:
Uh... Danyal, I'm just going to paraphrase my history/social studies teacher here:

"People who think that Germany will leave the European union are foolish and fail to see the big picture. Germany's main economic gains come from trade, and most of that trade is within the European union. leaving the union would lead to a sickening drop in revenue due to levies on international trade. It would take far, far more disadvantages than we have now for it to even remotely seem like a good idea to anyone who understands the situation."

He does this kind of shit for a living, so I'm kinda sure he's got a point. Germany does make most of its money by exporting within the EU, and it will essentially ALWAYS be a profitable arrangement for them. There is no reason why they should even consider leaving, and German politicians aren't fucking morons, so I don't see this happening. The idea that Germany would leave the European Union is hilariously poorly-thought-out.

I will quote from my economics professor (as close as I can) when he responded to a question about the Euro zone- "The Euro experiment has failed. Within most of you alls lifetime you will see the Euro block fall. The reason is that a one world currency always favors either the best or the worst. The only way a currency can work in multiple countries is if the countries are relatively similar in nature. Europe's own uniqueness has been the undoing of the Euro block."

My German studies teacher- "The Euro has failed and has proved very disadvantageous for Germany."

Overall there is no reason why Germany could not leave the zone and be successful. Trade barriers can be renegotiated (as with most of the political bull), their currency can be changed and adjusted so that it is more profitable for them, and finally Germany is the manufacturing giant of the European world. Most countries will come to them. In fact I have heard that Germany might consider forming another currency block, just under more advantageous circumstances. Of course the economy will hurt for a few years but Germany would certainly come out of it.

Will Germany leave the zone now? Maybe. If there is another huge bailout then the people might just say screw it. Otherwise it will probably not happen for a while.

Danyal:

And the article is not about the reliability of the report anyways; it's about the repercussions it will cause.

The reprecussions of the reliability of the report effect how valid the repercussions it reports are. In related news, as anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?

Ok, joking over, if it's a highly biased report then very few people here are going to trust it, unless somehow the mainstream media get even worse at checking the facts. And what everyone else said about most of Germany's economy being based on trade within the EU.

farson135:
I will quote from my economics professor (as close as I can) when he responded to a question about the Euro zone- "The Euro experiment has failed. Within most of you alls lifetime you will see the Euro block fall. The reason is that a one world currency always favors either the best or the worst. The only way a currency can work in multiple countries is if the countries are relatively similar in nature. Europe's own uniqueness has been the undoing of the Euro block."

My German studies teacher- "The Euro has failed and has proved very disadvantageous for Germany."

Overall there is no reason why Germany could not leave the zone and be successful. Trade barriers can be renegotiated (as with most of the political bull), their currency can be changed and adjusted so that it is more profitable for them, and finally Germany is the manufacturing giant of the European world. Most countries will come to them. In fact I have heard that Germany might consider forming another currency block, just under more advantageous circumstances. Of course the economy will hurt for a few years but Germany would certainly come out of it.

Will Germany leave the zone now? Maybe. If there is another huge bailout then the people might just say screw it. Otherwise it will probably not happen for a while.

...And where do you live?

Hahaha, oh dear. I went in here and was scared you had actual 'evidence' of them saying they would leave the Eurozone. xD. Oh I was shocked for a second, thanks for giving me a good laugh though.

No, Germany and Netherlands stands to loose more than they would gain from leaving the Eurozone. And nomatter how many brittish economists you bring into this, they wont have any say in the matter of whenever they quit or not.

I think the little credibility ya had with me was lost today, the religion threads are usually bad but this is just taking the cake, you literally dream of a day where the world economy will crash because people followed ideals you disagreed with, heh. That I cannot approve of.

While i have no doubt some delusional people thinking "omg they took our money!" in the Netherlands and Germany , most (and the politicians as well) know that being a member of the EU outweighs the current bill. If anything it's countries such as greece which should consider leaving , an autonomous monetary policy would most likely help them. Meanwhile Germany benefits a lot from a euro value taken down by "lesser" countries so for them leaving would be really bad. Let's not forget if they fuck the other european countries those countries will lose even more purchasing power... purchasing power needed to import german goods.

So overall i really doubt they are going to leave the eurozone. The only way i see that happening is if the situation of other EU countries keeps on worsening.

Stagnant:
Is it by German authors who actually have something to say about politics?

Esotera:

The reprecussions of the reliability of the report effect how valid the repercussions it reports are.

Nikolaz72:
Hahaha, oh dear. I went in here and was scared you had actual 'evidence' of them saying they would leave the Eurozone. xD. Oh I was shocked for a second, thanks for giving me a good laugh though.

generals3:
While i have no doubt some delusional people thinking "omg they took our money!" in the Netherlands and Germany

I don't know if you've the entire article on their website, but it's not only about a British report. The British report has been ordered by the PVV. Do you know the PVV?
image
It's the party of Geert Wilders. You've probably heard of him.

It's the big 'islamophobic' who made Fitna and such.
Euroskepticism doesn't immediately mean you are wrong and you're a retard. The report can be quite good. The European Union is not the optimal model for the Netherlands and Germany. That's what the article also explained. Germany has been screwed over.
Trade is good and Heinz trading with Zeus is also good. But if Zeus is f*cking poor, and you first need to give Zeus the money to be able to buy your products... yeah that doesn't help Heinz.

And what Farson said...

farson135:

Overall there is no reason why Germany could not leave the zone and be successful. Trade barriers can be renegotiated (as with most of the political bull), their currency can be changed and adjusted so that it is more profitable for them, and finally Germany is the manufacturing giant of the European world. Most countries will come to them. In fact I have heard that Germany might consider forming another currency block, just under more advantageous circumstances. Of course the economy will hurt for a few years but Germany would certainly come out of it.

You're making the same mistake as the people who say the world will end in 2012.
The 'end' of something doesn't have to mean that everything is torn down and everything sucks. It can also mean that you end a stupid construction[1] and replace it with a better construction [2] Or are you going to argue that the European Union is perfect and nothing better can be created?

So, the report can argue for an other system, and the PVV can be convinced. The PVV is already a big party and they can really get a lot of votes if they campaign against the EU and advocate an other, a better, system.
And for the last weeks in the Netherlands, we've seen the rise of the SP. The SP is also a big anti-EU party.
image
image

So, this British report can be a good reason for the PVV to end their cooperation with the cabinet and end this government. If they campaign against the EU, with in the news... They have to do so against a backdrop of (near-)failing Greek debt swap talks, which will at the very least force them to admit that they have a lost tens of billions in taxpayer money to Club Med countries already.

With a second Portugal bailout waiting in the wings. And lots of negative news on Italy and Spain. And more domestic budget cuts.

I won't be surprised to see at least 10 seats extra going to the PVV and the SP.
That'll mean that they are the biggest parties with 65 seats.
65 of all 150, you need 75 for a majority. You just need one extra party and you'll have Eurosceptic majority rule. And when that happens, repercussions in Germany, France and the European Union are going to be huge.

EDIT: Old Anti-Euro posters from the SP;
image
image
image

That's the biggest Dutch party now.

[1] The European Union
[2] The Fourth Reich

Danyal:

Stagnant:
Is it by German authors who actually have something to say about politics?

Esotera:

The reprecussions of the reliability of the report effect how valid the repercussions it reports are.

Nikolaz72:
Hahaha, oh dear. I went in here and was scared you had actual 'evidence' of them saying they would leave the Eurozone. xD. Oh I was shocked for a second, thanks for giving me a good laugh though.

generals3:
While i have no doubt some delusional people thinking "omg they took our money!" in the Netherlands and Germany

I don't know if you've the entire article on their website, but it's not only about a British report. The British report has been ordered by the PVV. Do you know the PVV?
image
It's the party of Geert Wilders. You've probably heard of him.

It's the big 'islamophobic' who made Fitna and such.
Euroskepticism doesn't immediately mean you are wrong and you're a retard. The report can be quite good. The European Union is not the optimal model for the Netherlands and Germany. That's what the article also explained. Germany has been screwed over.
Trade is good and Heinz trading with Zeus is also good. But if Zeus is f*cking poor, and you first need to give Zeus the money to be able to buy your products... yeah that doesn't help Heinz.

And what Farson said...

farson135:

Overall there is no reason why Germany could not leave the zone and be successful. Trade barriers can be renegotiated (as with most of the political bull), their currency can be changed and adjusted so that it is more profitable for them, and finally Germany is the manufacturing giant of the European world. Most countries will come to them. In fact I have heard that Germany might consider forming another currency block, just under more advantageous circumstances. Of course the economy will hurt for a few years but Germany would certainly come out of it.

You're making the same mistake as the people who say the world will end in 2012.
The 'end' of something doesn't have to mean that everything is torn down and everything sucks. It can also mean that you end a stupid construction and replace it with a better construction [1] Or are you going to argue that the European Union is perfect and nothing better can be created?

So, the report can argue for an other system, and the PVV can be convinced. The PVV is already a big party and they can really get a lot of votes if they campaign against the EU and advocate an other, a better, system.
And for the last weeks in the Netherlands, we've seen the rise of the SP. The SP is also a big anti-EU party.
image
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So, this British report can be a good reason for the PVV to end their cooperation with the cabinet and end this government. If they campaign against the EU, with in the news... They have to do so against a backdrop of (near-)failing Greek debt swap talks, which will at the very least force them to admit that they have a lost tens of billions in taxpayer money to Club Med countries already.

With a second Portugal bailout waiting in the wings. And lots of negative news on Italy and Spain. And more domestic budget cuts.

I won't be surprised to see at least 10 seats extra going to the PVV and the SP.
That'll mean that they are the biggest parties with 65 seats.
65 of all 150, you need 75 for a majority. You just need one extra party and you'll have Eurosceptic majority rule. And when that happens, repercussions in Germany, France and the European Union are going to be huge.

EDIT: Old Anti-Euro posters from the SP;
image
image
image

That's the biggest Dutch party now. European Union/Fourth Reich

Oh yes, comparing the European Union to the Nazi's. You are a hero. No really, honestly. You 'are'. You are standing against the evil hordes of oppresion in Europe. Against the evil forces of socialism and fascist dictatorships, fighting for the free market despite hordes of escapist-users telling you that you have nothing except blogs, and no-good economists to back you up. You keep fighting despite all of this, you should be proud. The party you support should be proud, you should be 'leader' of the god damn Netherlands. Because you see something everybody else doesnt, you have seen the 'truth' you have seen how everything will really 'end' You have seen the 'light' And this light will ofcourse, lead this world towards a better, liberal future. One where Communists and Neo-Conservatives (because those are the two alternative choices in Europe) cannot reach you anymore. And even though you get reported, know that even if by chance people are 'still' against you even after all the truth you posted. You were 'right' all along. And since you were right, and since you were right, even if your propaganda gets shot down, and for some reason you cant keep posting, know although you were silenced, La'resistance, lives on. *Big Sarcasm*

Nikolaz72:
Oh yes, comparing the European Union to the Nazi's. You are a hero. No really, honestly. You 'are'. You are standing against the evil hordes of oppresion in Europe. Against the evil forces of socialism and fascist dictatorships, fighting for the free market despite hordes of escapist-users telling you that you have nothing except blogs, and no-good economists to back you up. You keep fighting despite all of this, you should be proud. The party you support should be proud, you should be 'leader' of the god damn Netherlands. Because you see something everybody else doesnt, you have seen the 'truth' you have seen how everything will really 'end' You have seen the 'light' And this light will ofcourse, lead this world towards a better, liberal future. One where Communists and Neo-Conservatives (because those are the two alternative choices in Europe) cannot reach you anymore. And even though you get reported, know that even if by chance people are 'still' against you even after all the truth you posted. You were 'right' all along. And since you were right, nothing else matters.

LOLWHAT. Seriously. My only reference to the nazi's...

It can also mean that you end a stupid construction[1] and replace it with a better construction [2] Or are you going to argue that the European Union is perfect and nothing better can be created?

I called the European Union a stupid construction that should be replaced by a better construction.
A better construction, suitable for Germany; I jokingly called it 'The Fourth Reich'. That was my only nazi-reference, and I called the German successor the 'Fourth Reich', not the European Union.
Also, as far as I know, only the Third Reich was national-socialist, the First and Second were way less worse.

[1] The European Union
[2] The Fourth Reich

Danyal:

Nikolaz72:
Oh yes, comparing the European Union to the Nazi's. You are a hero. No really, honestly. You 'are'. You are standing against the evil hordes of oppresion in Europe. Against the evil forces of socialism and fascist dictatorships, fighting for the free market despite hordes of escapist-users telling you that you have nothing except blogs, and no-good economists to back you up. You keep fighting despite all of this, you should be proud. The party you support should be proud, you should be 'leader' of the god damn Netherlands. Because you see something everybody else doesnt, you have seen the 'truth' you have seen how everything will really 'end' You have seen the 'light' And this light will ofcourse, lead this world towards a better, liberal future. One where Communists and Neo-Conservatives (because those are the two alternative choices in Europe) cannot reach you anymore. And even though you get reported, know that even if by chance people are 'still' against you even after all the truth you posted. You were 'right' all along. And since you were right, nothing else matters.

LOLWHAT. Seriously. My only reference to the nazi's...

It can also mean that you end a stupid construction[1] and replace it with a better construction [2] Or are you going to argue that the European Union is perfect and nothing better can be created?

I called the European Union a stupid construction that should be replaced by a better construction.
A better construction, suitable for Germany; I jokingly called it 'The Fourth Reich'. That was my only nazi-reference, and I called the German successor the 'Fourth Reich', not the European Union.
Also, as far as I know, only the Third Reich was national-socialist, the First and Second were way less worse.

The European Union will obviously grow into something different, it will not remain as it is now, but it will not be de-constructed before getting re-constructed. That is not needed, changes will come but it does not need to come from destruction which you seems quite bend on. I may give americans a lot of fire, but you know what? They are still by far the strongest economy in the world, they will not fall tomorrow. Nor in two months. The European Union likewise, the economy is far from weak. There are a couple of weak links but suggesting that we just cut them off is madness, you dont leave those doing poorly in the dust simply for doing poorly. Just as we take care of the handicapped in our country we should take care and guide the less fortunate countries back onto the right path so that everyones economy can safely be strengthened. 'That' is the opinion of the German Prime Minister. I dont really care about this economist saying they will leave the union soon -I doubt it-

[1] The European Union
[2] The Fourth Reich

Nikolaz72:

The European Union will obviously grow into something different, it will not remain as it is now, but it will not be de-constructed before getting re-constructed. That is not needed, changes will come but it does not need to come from destruction which you seems quite bend on. I may give americans a lot of fire, but you know what? They are still by far the strongest economy in the world, they will not fall tomorrow. Nor in two months. The European Union likewise, the economy is far from weak. There are a couple of weak links but suggesting that we just cut them off is madness, you dont leave those doing poorly in the dust simply for doing poorly. Just as we take care of the handicapped in our country we should take care and guide the less fortunate countries back onto the right path so that everyones economy can safely be strengthened. 'That' is the opinion of the German Prime Minister. I dont really care about this economist saying they will leave the union soon -I doubt it-

Okay, and why the rant you just posted? Why the accusations of calling the European Union nazi's?

You know, this rant?

Oh yes, comparing the European Union to the Nazi's. You are a hero. No really, honestly. You 'are'. You are standing against the evil hordes of oppresion in Europe. Against the evil forces of socialism and fascist dictatorships, fighting for the free market despite hordes of escapist-users telling you that you have nothing except blogs, and no-good economists to back you up. You keep fighting despite all of this, you should be proud. The party you support should be proud, you should be 'leader' of the god damn Netherlands. Because you see something everybody else doesnt, you have seen the 'truth' you have seen how everything will really 'end' You have seen the 'light' And this light will ofcourse, lead this world towards a better, liberal future. One where Communists and Neo-Conservatives (because those are the two alternative choices in Europe) cannot reach you anymore. And even though you get reported, know that even if by chance people are 'still' against you even after all the truth you posted. You were 'right' all along. And since you were right, and since you were right, even if your propaganda gets shot down, and for some reason you cant keep posting, know although you were silenced, La'resistance, lives on. *Big Sarcasm*

For the love of all that is good everyone, please use spoilers for multiple images! We don't all have lightning fast internet :(

Danyal:

It's the big 'islamophobic' who made Fitna and such.
Euroskepticism doesn't immediately mean you are wrong and you're a retard. The report can be quite good. The European Union is not the optimal model for the Netherlands and Germany. That's what the article also explained. Germany has been screwed over.

But it's biased, so we can treat it with a hefty dose of skepticism. "Euroskeptics say EU is about to end" is about the same as "Drug company that designed a drug say it's awesome and nothing is wrong with it". There's a vested interest - even if it turns out to be right, we should take what they say with a pinch of salt.

Danyal:

So, the report can argue for an other system, and the PVV can be convinced. The PVV is already a big party and they can really get a lot of votes if they campaign against the EU and advocate an other, a better, system.
And for the last weeks in the Netherlands, we've seen the rise of the SP. The SP is also a big anti-EU party.

Is this just because of negative media coverage on the EU? How much has their popularity risen?

Esotera:

But it's biased, so we can treat it with a hefty dose of skepticism. "Euroskeptics say EU is about to end" is about the same as "Drug company that designed a drug say it's awesome and nothing is wrong with it". There's a vested interest - even if it turns out to be right, we should take what they say with a pinch of salt.

I haven't got much time ATM so you'll get a bigger response soon, but the argument is not 'Euroskeptics say EU is about to end'. It's 'Business Insider says the EU is about to the end', due to an Euroskeptic report that will cause the PVV to end Dutch support of the EU.

You don't really understand how world economics works do you. A country leaving the EU does not have an effect only on that country, it has an effect on the entire EU, especially if it is a country that has such economic influence such as Germany.

If any country leaves the EU it destabilizes the currency and cause panic in the financial market. Panic leads to recession. Recession leads to cuts to imports, the first cuts to go are those outside the EU.

The country that just left the EU is no longer part of the EU so they do not have to deal with the problem of a destabilized Euro but they will have to deal with the problem of the shaky market. They will not be able to control their currency as much as they would like to.

With leaving of the EU comes problems with exporting and importing. When they had the Euro they could export to any EU country on equal terms. This is not the case with different currencies. If your currency is weaker then the Euro, then you will find exporting easier, but importing from the EU would be more expensive. If your currency is stronger then importing would be cheaper, but you would have trouble exporting. This is similar to debts and this is a key area for Germany.

In the case of Germany they are a creditor nation with a lot of assets in the Euro. All the countries with debts to them owe them Euros. Germany is a massive exporter, exporting about €200 Billion more than it imported last year.

Leaving the Euro would be a disaster for Germany. It would cause the value of the Euro to plummet, which internally is not bad for Germany because they would have a strong Deutschmark, but externally it would be disaster of untold magnitude. You see all that debt that countries owe to Germany, that is in Euros. If Country A had €100 Billion to pay back now it would be worth US$130 Billion, if the Euro collapses then it could be worth something like US$50 Billion.
Then you move on to exports. If the Euro collapses and the Deutschmark is worth considerably more than the EU countries are going to stop importing from Germany because it would become far too expensive. Their entire export market within the EU would collapse. They would be able to import cheaply from the EU, but they would not be exporting.

A report has been done on the cost of leaving the EU for Germany by the way. UBS released it a few months back. The costs are staggering. It would cost €6000-€8000 for each person in Germany in the first year alone and then €3500-€4500 each following year. They could bail out the EU a dozen times for the same cost.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bring-out-your-dead-ubs-quantifies-costs-euro-break-warns-collapse-banking-system-and-civil-war

Edit - Does not seem to like my Euro sign, those €'s are Euros, what a waste of time, 4 key presses for one symbol and it still can't display it right.

Danyal:

Nikolaz72:

The European Union will obviously grow into something different, it will not remain as it is now, but it will not be de-constructed before getting re-constructed. That is not needed, changes will come but it does not need to come from destruction which you seems quite bend on. I may give americans a lot of fire, but you know what? They are still by far the strongest economy in the world, they will not fall tomorrow. Nor in two months. The European Union likewise, the economy is far from weak. There are a couple of weak links but suggesting that we just cut them off is madness, you dont leave those doing poorly in the dust simply for doing poorly. Just as we take care of the handicapped in our country we should take care and guide the less fortunate countries back onto the right path so that everyones economy can safely be strengthened. 'That' is the opinion of the German Prime Minister. I dont really care about this economist saying they will leave the union soon -I doubt it-

Okay, and why the rant you just posted? Why the accusations of calling the European Union nazi's?

You know, this rant?

Oh yes, comparing the European Union to the Nazi's. You are a hero. No really, honestly. You 'are'. You are standing against the evil hordes of oppresion in Europe. Against the evil forces of socialism and fascist dictatorships, fighting for the free market despite hordes of escapist-users telling you that you have nothing except blogs, and no-good economists to back you up. You keep fighting despite all of this, you should be proud. The party you support should be proud, you should be 'leader' of the god damn Netherlands. Because you see something everybody else doesnt, you have seen the 'truth' you have seen how everything will really 'end' You have seen the 'light' And this light will ofcourse, lead this world towards a better, liberal future. One where Communists and Neo-Conservatives (because those are the two alternative choices in Europe) cannot reach you anymore. And even though you get reported, know that even if by chance people are 'still' against you even after all the truth you posted. You were 'right' all along. And since you were right, and since you were right, even if your propaganda gets shot down, and for some reason you cant keep posting, know although you were silenced, La'resistance, lives on. *Big Sarcasm*

I still stand by it, comparing the European Union to the Roman Empire and the Axis, is beyond stupid. It is neither medieval nor nazi. And again, it seems you are hell bend on it being the end of alliances, maybe its the same thing as with the doomsday sayers, you really want things to go bad because that way you can feel like you were right. And its annoying. Wishing for something to go wrong to feel right is bad. You seem to have convinced yourself that the union is failing and falling, and even if you 'were' right. Which you arent. Why would it be a good thing? You really present it like something that you are proud of.

People are forgetting the work done by ING on estimating just how much reverting from the euro to national coins will cost. It's estimated at ten billion euros, excluding indirect costs.

Yes, the SP can mobilise hordes of malcontent paupers with cheap slogans, like they always have. But still, the facts are stacked against them. They even dropped the anti-euro campaign for that reason.

Maybe they'll become the biggest party next election, but after four years of a far left government especially in crisis time, people are going to be completely cured from that. We'll spend half a century paying off the debths the SP caused, but at least people will remember why not to vote populist after that.

Blablahb:
People are forgetting the work done by ING on estimating just how much reverting from the euro to national coins will cost. It's estimated at ten billion euros, excluding indirect costs.

Yes, the SP can mobilise hordes of malcontent paupers with cheap slogans, like they always have. But still, the facts are stacked against them. They even dropped the anti-euro campaign for that reason.

Maybe they'll become the biggest party next election, but after four years of a far left government especially in crisis time, people are going to be completely cured from that. We'll spend half a century paying off the debths the SP caused, but at least people will remember why not to vote populist after that.

In Denmark we once had a comedian who became a politician to see if he could make it into goverment as an independant (A single person who gains so many votes that he can make the goverment without needing to be in a party) The man who promised chocolate in the military's field rations, Wind in the backs of every cyclist. And lower taxes for everyone. . . . He made it in, and soon after quit. Funny thing is, populists can get in easily and people will believe the most stupid shit. On another note he managed to keep more promises than most other politicians, he single handedly succesfully argued for good reasons to put chocolate in the military's field rations. Which is why Danish Field rations now feature nutella and chocolate milk.

Point is, it works. People will vote for you even if you promise stuff you cant keep.

Danyal:
Germany has been screwed over...

...And this is the point where you need to stop talking. Seriously. Just stop posting on the subject. You're ridiculously misinformed and don't understand the german side of the equation one bit, and until you actually learn what you're talking about, you need to stop pretending to know what we Germans think. The idea that Germany got a raw deal here is pretty ridiculously off course. Could the situation be better? Yeah. But here's what won't make it better: Germany leaving the EU. And nobody with a brain in Germany is even considering leaving.

Stagnant:

Danyal:
Germany has been screwed over...

...And this is the point where you need to stop talking. Seriously. Just stop posting on the subject. You're ridiculously misinformed and don't understand the german side of the equation one bit, and until you actually learn what you're talking about, you need to stop pretending to know what we Germans think. The idea that Germany got a raw deal here is pretty ridiculously off course. Could the situation be better? Yeah. But here's what won't make it better: Germany leaving the EU. And nobody with a brain in Germany is even considering leaving.

And what are your sources?

The article;

Speaking at an event in central London, he said that before joining the single currency, German incomes had stayed level but their purchasing power had increased as the Deutschmark appreciated. With the weaker euro, the economist said, they have seen 'tremendous' wage restraint, leading to huge growth in German firms' market share but 'no serious growth of the economy' and a squeeze on disposable incomes. Meanwhile, consumption rose elsewhere in the eurozone, he said.

'So what you're actually dealing with here... is a German population which has had a rotten deal - and that's why they're all so angry' noted Dumas, who is also chairman of the macroeconomic forecasting consultancy. Branding the monetary union a 'suicide pact', he continued: 'So what this exercise in uniting Europe has achieved is to divide Europe.'

Dumas [noted that] the 'Club Med' nations needed about 5% of gross domestic product in annual debt refinancing 'more or less indefinitely'.

This would amount to €150 billion a year, of which Germany would have to stump up just over €60 billion

Are you seriously arguing that the current configuration of the European Union is the best thing the Germans can get?

Danyal:

Stagnant:

Danyal:
Germany has been screwed over...

...And this is the point where you need to stop talking. Seriously. Just stop posting on the subject. You're ridiculously misinformed and don't understand the german side of the equation one bit, and until you actually learn what you're talking about, you need to stop pretending to know what we Germans think. The idea that Germany got a raw deal here is pretty ridiculously off course. Could the situation be better? Yeah. But here's what won't make it better: Germany leaving the EU. And nobody with a brain in Germany is even considering leaving.

And what are your sources?

The article;

Speaking at an event in central London, he said that before joining the single currency, German incomes had stayed level but their purchasing power had increased as the Deutschmark appreciated. With the weaker euro, the economist said, they have seen 'tremendous' wage restraint, leading to huge growth in German firms' market share but 'no serious growth of the economy' and a squeeze on disposable incomes. Meanwhile, consumption rose elsewhere in the eurozone, he said.

'So what you're actually dealing with here... is a German population which has had a rotten deal - and that's why they're all so angry' noted Dumas, who is also chairman of the macroeconomic forecasting consultancy. Branding the monetary union a 'suicide pact', he continued: 'So what this exercise in uniting Europe has achieved is to divide Europe.'

Dumas [noted that] the 'Club Med' nations needed about 5% of gross domestic product in annual debt refinancing 'more or less indefinitely'.

This would amount to €150 billion a year, of which Germany would have to stump up just over €60 billion

Are you seriously arguing that the current configuration of the European Union is the best thing the Germans can get?

No one is arguing that it is the best the Germans can get, everyone but yourself is saying that the current situation is considerably better than leaving the EU, which has been costed at about 20-25% of their GDP over the first year alone. Like I have stated, you have no idea how disastrous a move like Germany leaving the EU would be on the international financial markets, which in turn would result in the crash of the Euro, which is what a majority of German assets are held in.

Switching currency is not like switching a light switch, you cannot just say "we are going to use this money now" and everything will turn out fine. Germany has its assets in Euros, they cannot change them over the a new currency before leaving the EU. As soon as they leave the EU the Euro will begin to fall. As they move assets out of the Euro it will fall even further. The more they move out of the Euro the more it will fall. In the end most of their assets will be worthless.

Danyal:

Are you seriously arguing that the current configuration of the European Union is the best thing the Germans can get?

Possibly not.

But analyses of the problem are very interesting. In fact, the vast expansion of German firms has been facilitated by the Euro, because it's prevented competitors - such as southern European countries - from devaluing their currencies gently to maintain competitiveness. It's funny how the current accounts of the likes of Italy and Spain start going into the red and Germany's into the black at the start of the Euro. Consequently, never mind Germany, there would be considerable advantages for southern Europe to ultimately depart the Euro: they can devalue their currencies out of the mess rather than austerity/depress themselves.

However, it's not as simple as that. To pull apart the Euro now would risk totalling the economies of Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece. Firstly, that means big losses for northern European banks with attendant problems. Secondly, they are also big export markets, which means a substantial loss of trade income. In the medium term as they recover, it'll also be very cheap and easy to employ people there, which may drive companies to move operations there.

If the Euro is to be dismantled, realistically it can't be done either now or soon without swinging a wrecking ball through the continent which I doubt anyone wants.

Agema:

If the Euro is to be dismantled, realistically it can't be done either now or soon without swinging a wrecking ball through the continent which I doubt anyone wants.

Well, it's not like the choice is between...
-no problems
-a wrecking ball through the continent

A wrecking ball is already going through the continent, and I can imagine that a lot of people prefer a nationalistic wrecking ball of 'Screw Europe' than an altruistic wrecking ball of 'Help the Greek'...

What, another thread with a pretentious title crying "please notice me!" and all?

*sigh* Yes, I am sure that there are some people who want the EU to fail. And in the spirit of the credit rating folks, they of course attempt to create a self-fulfilling prophecy to try and nudge the events that way.

Danyal:
And what are your sources?

I LIVE HERE, REMEMBER?

I go to school, I watch the news, I listen to the politics. While the people at the "stammtisch" often speaks of Germany leaving the EU, the "stammtisch" refers to the standing table at the bar or cafe where the old, generally uninformed farmers and day laborers meet; i.e. the people who should be ignored because they don't know what they're talking about. And I'm not the only one. At this point you have the word of at least one actual german resident (I think some of the others here are also German) and his experience, along with multiple people here who have explained the situation in exactly the same way quite clearly, against an article whose objectivity and sense has been called severely into question. Do I need to call Skeleon in here?

Are you seriously arguing that the current configuration of the European Union is the best thing the Germans can get?

Nobody's arguing that. But you're arguing that Germany LEAVING the union would be better. And that is patently stupid.

Danyal:

Agema:

If the Euro is to be dismantled, realistically it can't be done either now or soon without swinging a wrecking ball through the continent which I doubt anyone wants.

Well, it's not like the choice is between...
-no problems
-a wrecking ball through the continent

A wrecking ball is already going through the continent, and I can imagine that a lot of people prefer a nationalistic wrecking ball of 'Screw Europe' than an altruistic wrecking ball of 'Help the Greek'...

Yes, because helping the greek is such a complete and utter bringer of dismay and destruction.

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