Is a war with Iran possible?

It's been a while since I've posted here so forgive me if this is a over-done topic but I'm just curious to know what people think of the current situation with Iran and the rest of the world.

With Iran refusing to cut their nuclear program and the oil embargo that has been placed on them, do you think the USA and Israel are gearing up to commence a war with Iran or is this just more stupid shit with countries get pissy with each other?

Death_Korps_Kommissar:
It's been a while since I've posted here so forgive me if this is a over-done topic but I'm just curious to know what people think of the current situation with Iran and the rest of the world.

With Iran refusing to cut their nuclear program and the oil embargo that has been placed on them, do you think the USA and Israel are gearing up to commence a war with Iran or is this just more stupid shit with countries get pissy with each other?

Oh anything is possible. Probable, not so much, though it is more probable than a year ago. If there is a war the most likely scenario is just an indirect attack from Israel which causes Iran to do something rash like closing the strait of Hormuz (which would be amazingly foolish) but that would lead the US and possibly the UK to just force the straits open and then I don't know what Iran does then. It doesnt have a whole lot of cards to play if Israel tries to launch air strikes to destroy some of its nuclear facilities.

It seems, IMHO, likely to be posturing for people at home. Politicians make angry noises at each other because their voters like it...as to going to an actual war, that's another thing altogether.

A war wouldn't really be likely to benefit anyone involved, though that sort of thinking depends on their values and worldview, and making assumptions about that has led people down the wrogn path more than once.

As Seekster said, anything is possible, but it's not likely. As arrogant as the leadership of Iran is, they know the US, the UK, and Israel can squash them like a bug, oil or no oil. Granted they could still screw up our economies pretty bad, but it would be a suicide attack, and I don't think they're so arrogant as to throw away their country and power to make that happen.

It is very unlikely that the US and Israel are going to strike first, seeing how there is no economic advantage for them to maintain these escalating sanctions it would be prudent to wait for its effects. Iran's economy is in very poor shape at this stage, what one could fear would be that Iran begins striking out at Iraq, Israel and the US directly, though this would lead to a bombing campaign and the destruction of Iranian military capabilities, swiftly ended by China and Russia whom would be concerned about their economic assets in the country.

It's not very likely for the US or Iran to directly start a war. Neither side really wants it. The US economy is just starting to recover, the US public, but especially democrats, don't really want another one, the Pentagon is nervous about the secondary problems that would be created by a war and the Iranians know that their military couldn't last very long in a fight and that their nation would suffer a lot of infrastructure damage. Since Iran doesn't have nukes yet, everyone would rather settle this with alternative means.

The problem is Israel - Israel is massively paranoid about Iran (for good reason. They're not exactly on the best of terms with each other are they?). Israel desperately wants to take military action against Iran - it's been pressing for a US invasion for over 6 years now, and the US have been tiredly saying "No" to them ever since. For that matter, Saudi Arabia also wants the US to invade Iran, as do a lot of other Gulf States who hate their Persian neighbour (Arabs and Persians don't really like each other a whole lot). As much as Israel and Saudi Arabia dislike each other, I can absolutely imagine the Saudis allowing Israel to use their air-bases for a covert strike on Iran. The Saudis have said that if Iran gets a bomb, they'll get a bomb, and they'd rather avoid pouring in the expenses necessary to make and maintain nuclear weapons.

Israel have said that they are seriously considering a military strike on Iran this year, much like their strike on Iraq's nuclear reactor. Personally, I think any Israel military strike would be foolish - they could certainly bomb Iran to a limited extent (Iran's airforce isn't very scary), but they couldn't actually destroy the hardened, fortified structures under the ground - it would just piss off Iran, kill Iranian civilians and drive Iran to finish their nuclear project even faster. And on the off-chance the air-strike did work, think of how much radiation would be spread around!

I don't want Iran to get a bomb - but I honestly think that there are other ways to solve this problem. Even if Iran does get a nuclear weapon, Israel also has nukes and just needs to aim a few at Iran - if ANY nuclear attack goes of in Israel, the Israelis will make it clear that they'll nuke Iran no matter what, instantly. If the USA and the USSR could depend on the doctrine of MAD, why not Israel and Iran?

Korolev:
Even if Iran does get a nuclear weapon, Israel also has nukes and just needs to aim a few at Iran - if ANY nuclear attack goes of in Israel, the Israelis will make it clear that they'll nuke Iran no matter what, instantly. If the USA and the USSR could depend on the doctrine of MAD, why not Israel and Iran?

The more nations with nuclear devices around, the more likely one gets used, either by a state or a terrorist group. The latter aren't always concerned by MAD.

Suppose Iran builds nuclear devices, but the regime falls into civil war 10-15 years later? Who controls the devices and who is safeguarding them, assuming they aren't used in the conflict?

Only chance of that happening is if Israel does something stupid. Even then, the US should let them fight it out.

Dragging American soldiers in and having Americans die over there would be pointless. Iran is not a threat to the USA - despite all their bickering, they really aren't.

I'm sick and tired of the USA going into bat for Israel all the fucking time. Enough is enough.

Seekster:

Death_Korps_Kommissar:
It's been a while since I've posted here so forgive me if this is a over-done topic but I'm just curious to know what people think of the current situation with Iran and the rest of the world.

With Iran refusing to cut their nuclear program and the oil embargo that has been placed on them, do you think the USA and Israel are gearing up to commence a war with Iran or is this just more stupid shit with countries get pissy with each other?

Oh anything is possible. Probable, not so much, though it is more probable than a year ago. If there is a war the most likely scenario is just an indirect attack from Israel which causes Iran to do something rash like closing the strait of Hormuz (which would be amazingly foolish) but that would lead the US and possibly the UK to just force the straits open and then I don't know what Iran does then. It doesnt have a whole lot of cards to play if Israel tries to launch air strikes to destroy some of its nuclear facilities.

Taking that the US responded to Isreal sort of with, hestitation. 'Orders' to delay. And with a hint of disgust. When they suggested that an attack in the near future was possible, would suggest that the US are not really -inthemood- for another war at this time.

a ground war with iran is very very difficult to pull off due to the terrain very favourably in the defenders advantage and the only real option would be a sea borne assault.

eventually the US would win a ground war but iran learned alot from the us invason of iraq and has spent the best part of the last decade training militia groups to blend in to the population and make occupation as costly and as bloody as possible.

is it possible? yes. but i hope it does because you will be looking at a war and occupation with 5 times the causualties on both sides and probably double the time spent

Maybe I'm being just a little too optimistic here, but the diplomatic posturing seems to be leading towards actual negotiations. The rhetoric allows each side to walk into the conference room with their heads held high and being able to pretend they won't lose anything by actually talking to each other.

Plus, by working the pressure up ahead of any negotiations, you set the tone for the negotiations to be as favorable for your side as possible.

Then again, I could easily be very wrong and the whole thing goes kablooie tomorrow.

From most to least likely, IMO: Israel does something stupid > President Gingrich does something stupid > President Romney does something stupid. Otherwise, it's not happening-- Obama is certainly not interested, that's for damn sure, and I'm hoping it's just saber-rattling from Israel.

Polarity27:
From most to least likely, IMO: Israel does something stupid > President Gingrich does something stupid > President Romney does something stupid. Otherwise, it's not happening-- Obama is certainly not interested, that's for damn sure, and I'm hoping it's just saber-rattling from Israel.

Obama said the other day that the US is in lock-step with Israel. Obama may be a poor leader who is prone to naivety, but he is STILL an American.

We have saber rattling from both Israel and Iran right now, the problem is anyone who plays chicken with Israel tends to lose.

nikki191:
a ground war with iran is very very difficult to pull off due to the terrain very favourably in the defenders advantage and the only real option would be a sea borne assault.

eventually the US would win a ground war but iran learned alot from the us invason of iraq and has spent the best part of the last decade training militia groups to blend in to the population and make occupation as costly and as bloody as possible.

is it possible? yes. but i hope it does because you will be looking at a war and occupation with 5 times the causualties on both sides and probably double the time spent

A ground war similar to Iraq would be unlikely in Iran. If there is a conflict it would most likely start with Israel striking Iranian nuclear research facilities and then sitting back and looking at Iran as if to say "yeah, what are you going to do about it?" at which point Iran has a handful of options, none of which are very good. Their best option at that point would be to simply unleash Hezbollah and Hamas and fight Israel through their proxies while whining to the UN about being the victim forcing the US to veto a resolution and then they use that for propaganda purposes and eventually the whole thing dies down with Iran maybe trying to salvage what they can from their nuclear program to see if they have enough to justify starting again.

Knowing the way my government operates, in a couple of years I think it's possible.

Seekster:

Death_Korps_Kommissar:
It's been a while since I've posted here so forgive me if this is a over-done topic but I'm just curious to know what people think of the current situation with Iran and the rest of the world.

With Iran refusing to cut their nuclear program and the oil embargo that has been placed on them, do you think the USA and Israel are gearing up to commence a war with Iran or is this just more stupid shit with countries get pissy with each other?

Oh anything is possible. Probable, not so much, though it is more probable than a year ago. If there is a war the most likely scenario is just an indirect attack from Israel which causes Iran to do something rash like closing the strait of Hormuz (which would be amazingly foolish) but that would lead the US and possibly the UK to just force the straits open and then I don't know what Iran does then. It doesnt have a whole lot of cards to play if Israel tries to launch air strikes to destroy some of its nuclear facilities.

.
Some of its nuclear facilities. There are already fortified bunkers that can't be bombed from the air, they're protecting some of those nuclear facilities.

Yes, it would last all of fifteen minutes and end with a nation covered in mushroom clouds.

OT: Meh, the probability of a mass troop deployment in Ian is rather slim, logistically it would be extremely hard to get any heavy artillery into the country and any para trooper vanguard they send would end up overrun by the enemy armor or sheer numbers.

TheIronRuler:

Seekster:

Death_Korps_Kommissar:
It's been a while since I've posted here so forgive me if this is a over-done topic but I'm just curious to know what people think of the current situation with Iran and the rest of the world.

With Iran refusing to cut their nuclear program and the oil embargo that has been placed on them, do you think the USA and Israel are gearing up to commence a war with Iran or is this just more stupid shit with countries get pissy with each other?

Oh anything is possible. Probable, not so much, though it is more probable than a year ago. If there is a war the most likely scenario is just an indirect attack from Israel which causes Iran to do something rash like closing the strait of Hormuz (which would be amazingly foolish) but that would lead the US and possibly the UK to just force the straits open and then I don't know what Iran does then. It doesnt have a whole lot of cards to play if Israel tries to launch air strikes to destroy some of its nuclear facilities.

.
Some of its nuclear facilities. There are already fortified bunkers that can't be bombed from the air, they're protecting some of those nuclear facilities.

Some are, though they don't necessarily have to destroy the materials inside the facility, they just have to destroy the entrance to the facility and make it inaccessible at least for a good while. Mind you its hard to imagine a situation where Iran couldnt get back in but it would certainly delay them.

One of the reasons Israel is so anxious lately is because it worries that if they don't act now they may not get another chance to act once Iran moves most of its work underground where they can't get to it...at least not yet.

Seekster:

TheIronRuler:

Seekster:

Oh anything is possible. Probable, not so much, though it is more probable than a year ago. If there is a war the most likely scenario is just an indirect attack from Israel which causes Iran to do something rash like closing the strait of Hormuz (which would be amazingly foolish) but that would lead the US and possibly the UK to just force the straits open and then I don't know what Iran does then. It doesnt have a whole lot of cards to play if Israel tries to launch air strikes to destroy some of its nuclear facilities.

.
Some of its nuclear facilities. There are already fortified bunkers that can't be bombed from the air, they're protecting some of those nuclear facilities.

Some are, though they don't necessarily have to destroy the materials inside the facility, they just have to destroy the entrance to the facility and make it inaccessible at least for a good while. Mind you its hard to imagine a situation where Iran couldnt get back in but it would certainly delay them.

One of the reasons Israel is so anxious lately is because it worries that if they don't act now they may not get another chance to act once Iran moves most of its work underground where they can't get to it...at least not yet.

.
You're correct, that's the opinion of the brass and most of the government, but the media leads this crusade to scare the living shit out of people for ratings, which makes a surprise attack... not so surprising.

TheIronRuler:

Seekster:

TheIronRuler:

.
Some of its nuclear facilities. There are already fortified bunkers that can't be bombed from the air, they're protecting some of those nuclear facilities.

Some are, though they don't necessarily have to destroy the materials inside the facility, they just have to destroy the entrance to the facility and make it inaccessible at least for a good while. Mind you its hard to imagine a situation where Iran couldnt get back in but it would certainly delay them.

One of the reasons Israel is so anxious lately is because it worries that if they don't act now they may not get another chance to act once Iran moves most of its work underground where they can't get to it...at least not yet.

.
You're correct, that's the opinion of the brass and most of the government, but the media leads this crusade to scare the living shit out of people for ratings, which makes a surprise attack... not so surprising.

Yeah though if you have a lot of incidents like this where the media is saying there is about to be an attack and nothing happens you can disguise when you are going to have an attack because eventually your enemy wont take it very seriously. Its like "oh here we go again."

But yeah you are right. I think I read one article where and Israeli intelligence official said that Israel needs to do what it does best when it comes to intel..."shut up".

 

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