Who do you think is going to win the next election?
Obama
81.3% (113)
81.3% (113)
Romney
18% (25)
18% (25)
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Poll: I think we're gonna have President Romney

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I was looking at an election map here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/election-map-2012/president/

It would seem to me this election really hangs on 5 states and those are Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and... Ohio. I really think Mitt Romney will easily win North Carolina and Florida. They didn't seem all too pleased with Obama the first time around, barely squeaking out a majority vote in Florida at 51%. That was at the height of everyone being caught up in "hope" and "change." I'd imagine Barack easily slipping a couple points in many states just that the novelty of him has worn off.

Virginians may have elected barack w/ 52.7% majority in the last election, but bush won by 53.7% in 04. Virigina really is a pretty wealthy, expensive, upscale state and I would not be surprised to see them swing back Romney's way this time around.

That really leaves Colorado and Ohio. These could swing either way.

Is anyone from these states on these forums? What's the sentiment there? What do the rest of you think?

Edit: These five would get Romney the 270+ electoral votes to win.

xDarc:
I was looking at an election map here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/election-map-2012/president/

It would seem to me this election really hangs on 5 states and those are Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and... Ohio. I really think Mitt Romney will easily win North Carolina and Florida. They didn't seem all too pleased with him the first time around, barely squeaking out a majority vote in Florida at 51%. That was at the height of everyone being caught up in "hope" and "change." I'd imagine Barack easily slipping a couple points in many states just that the novelty of him has worn off.

Virginians may have elected barack w/ 52.7% majority in the last election, but bush won by 53.7% in 04. Virigina really is a pretty wealthy, expensive, upscale state and I would not be surprised to see them swing back Romney's way this time around.

That really leaves Colorado and Ohio. These could swing either way.

Is anyone from these states on these forums? What's the sentiment there? What do the rest of you think?

Edit: These five would get Romney the 270+ electoral votes to win.

I'm from Virginia and I'm not seeing VA going for Romney. Particularly the "wealthy, upscale" part here in NoVA-- NoVA has been trending Democrat for a while now, the only time they lose is when people just stay home. And VA hasn't been affected quite as badly by the downturn as other states (says me as I'm hoping my husband keeps his job when the latest contract runs out).

Highly doubt Romney's gonna win. The Republican base is extremely apathetic about the man. The more conservatives feel that Romney's not crazy right-wing enough, and the few moderates left in the Republican party were put off by his pandering to the far right. Similarly, independents, who are really the big deciding factor in pretty much any presidential election, have been less than happy about Romney's pandering and general insincerity.

On the other hand, Obama has done much to ensure his base will be active (coming out in open support of gay marriage, for example). Obama's got this one in the bag.

Polarity27:

I'm from Virginia and I'm not seeing VA going for Romney. Particularly the "wealthy, upscale" part here in NoVA-- NoVA has been trending Democrat for a while now, )

The map mentions it's the first time a democrat has won in that state since 1964. That's the past 11 elections; republicans won. Barack may have been a fluke for Virginia, may be the start a new trend, hard to say.

Link

image

As the little thing in the corner states, this is the electoral map from Karl Rove. Yes, that Karl Rove.

217 Obama, 73 Lean Obama
90 Romney, 71 Lean Romney
87 Toss Up

When Karl Rove is projecting a Democrat win...well, I don't think I need to go on.

Amnestic:

When Karl Rove is projecting a Democrat win...well, I don't think I need to go on.

The map is based on available polls from a month ago. Polls do not follow logic. Some of the states he is turning into toss ups have recently enacted gay marriage bans by majority vote. How these states are going to end up a toss ups, or even getting close to going for Obama, is beyond me. He just came out in favor of something the state just voted against. Does not make sense.

Obama doesn't have the hype from 2008 behind him. He will have to face up to the undelivered promises. It will also be held against him that economic growth is still very shakey and hit or miss depending on where you live. Expect the states he only won in 08 by a few points to flip. He is being dragged down and has a lot of baggage.

xDarc:

Amnestic:

When Karl Rove is projecting a Democrat win...well, I don't think I need to go on.

The map is based on available polls from a month ago. Polls do not follow logic.

No, but people follow polls.

I think it would take something BIG to even give Romney a chance of winning. He's just too much like Obama, but a republican.

Hafrael:
No, but people follow polls.

Well here's some polls for ya:
http://www.examiner.com/article/a-breakdown-of-the-most-recent-obama-versus-romney-polls-1

Seems pretty inconclusive to me. There's margin of error for one thing, and these polls just measure popular vote- which didn't help Al Gore beat Bush in 2000.

Romney won't win. GOP doing what Democrats did in 2004. Just take someone you barely care about (Kerry then, Romney now) and throw them to the wolves. Continue ensuring that nothing happens in congress, make the president look like a failure for not being able to pass anything for the next 4 years, then bring out the real candidate (Rubio) and demolish the opponent.

Simple political strategy, and incredibly effective.

Not quite sure, but I'm thinking Romney will if President Obama keeps having bad weeks like this past one.

Could happen, yes. And Obama doesn't really do too much to energize his base, so in the end voter-turnout might be what does him in.
I currently still think Obama is more likely, but it could be quite close.

Skeleon:
Could happen, yes. And Obama doesn't really do too much to energize his base, so in the end voter-turnout might be what does him in.
I currently still think Obama is more likely, but it could be quite close.

And Mittens is such a super energizing guy, especially among conservatives, it'll be tough on Obama. I don't see Romney winning Ohio with what he said about the auto bailout when attack ads start rolling, and Republicans have never won without Ohio.

Dags90:
And Mittens is such a super energizing guy, especially among conservatives, it'll be tough on Obama. I don't see Romney winning Ohio with what he said about the auto bailout when attack ads start rolling, and Republicans have never won without Ohio.

Don't get me wrong, Romney isn't particularly energizing for sure, but I think the whole "team Republicans versus team Democrats"-spiel is much more in effect among the voters for Republicans, especially because so many Progressives and "fucking retarded" Liberals don't exactly feel represented by the Obama administration. It's, as always, "vote for the lesser evil", but that hardly motivates already disappointed voters. And attack-ads can only do so much to motivate people, they're, to my understanding, more about driving away voters from the opponent than they really are about increasing your own.

Food for thought.

Can anyone else here see a concerted effort in around 2014 to start amping up Jeb Bush? He's regarded by many moderates as the competent Bush brother, and the GOP would rally around him. Or will Bush Fatigue still be an issue at that point?

Tyler Perry:
Food for thought.

Can anyone else here see a concerted effort in around 2014 to start amping up Jeb Bush? He's regarded by many moderates as the competent Bush brother, and the GOP would rally around him. Or will Bush Fatigue still be an issue at that point?

If the Tea Party hasn't died entirely, it will be Marco Rubio or Chris Christie. Rubio gives them the best chance. He has charisma, and he's not afraid to go Rush Limbaugh on his opponents.

NameIsRobertPaulson:

Tyler Perry:
Food for thought.

Can anyone else here see a concerted effort in around 2014 to start amping up Jeb Bush? He's regarded by many moderates as the competent Bush brother, and the GOP would rally around him. Or will Bush Fatigue still be an issue at that point?

If the Tea Party hasn't died entirely, it will be Marco Rubio or Chris Christie. Rubio gives them the best chance. He has charisma, and he's not afraid to go Rush Limbaugh on his opponents.

I'm hoping you mean Christie is the one who goes Full Limbaugh, not Rubio. I've never seen Rubio do that. He's rather milquetoast.

I just can't tell if a Republican loss will push them further into Full Metal Wingnut territory in the next term, or if it will coerce them to back off a bit. Christie is NOT a tea party guy in the same way Rubio is. Christie, for all of his blowhard bluster, will buck the far right from time to time. I haven't seen Rubio say jack shit (even with the voter controversy in Florida) in MONTHS.

Meanwhile, Jeb is saying all the right things right now; admittedly, from a position where he's in no way accountable to anyone with a vote. He's come out in favor of the inevitable reality of gay marriage, for one.

Tyler Perry:

NameIsRobertPaulson:

Tyler Perry:
Food for thought.

Can anyone else here see a concerted effort in around 2014 to start amping up Jeb Bush? He's regarded by many moderates as the competent Bush brother, and the GOP would rally around him. Or will Bush Fatigue still be an issue at that point?

If the Tea Party hasn't died entirely, it will be Marco Rubio or Chris Christie. Rubio gives them the best chance. He has charisma, and he's not afraid to go Rush Limbaugh on his opponents.

I'm hoping you mean Christie is the one who goes Full Limbaugh, not Rubio. I've never seen Rubio do that. He's rather milquetoast.

I just can't tell if a Republican loss will push them further into Full Metal Wingnut territory in the next term, or if it will coerce them to back off a bit. Christie is NOT a tea party guy in the same way Rubio is. Christie, for all of his blowhard bluster, will buck the far right from time to time. I haven't seen Rubio say jack shit (even with the voter controversy in Florida) in MONTHS.

Meanwhile, Jeb is saying all the right things right now; admittedly, from a position where he's in no way accountable to anyone with a vote. He's come out in favor of the inevitable reality of gay marriage, for one.

That surprises the hell out of me. Seriously.

Rubio is keeping quiet because this time of year it's what you don't say that matters most. And while Christie can be a blowhard, Rubio could talk a man into a coma if he felt so inclined. What he did in Florida is a masterpiece of slamming your opponent while making it look like you're the good guy. It's masterful politicking.

If the right swings even further out there, Rubio could be a massive choice. If they come closer to center, Christie becomes a better candidate.

Obama gaffe: quote taken out of context changing or obfuscating its meaning ("private sector is doing fine (in creating jobs)" debacle)

Romney gaffe: telling people honestly what he thinks of intents to do ("Obama wants to hire more firefighters, teachers and policemen, no we should do the opposite" speech)

Can't wait to find out who Romney picks for the VP slot.

nyysjan:
Obama gaffe: quote taken out of context changing or obfuscating its meaning ("private sector is doing fine (in creating jobs)" debacle)

Romney gaffe: telling people honestly what he thinks of intents to do ("Obama wants to hire more firefighters, teachers and policemen, no we should do the opposite" speech)

Can't wait to find out who Romney picks for the VP slot.

Romney's not going to wild card like Palin. He'd be insane to go for a game-changer, so to speak. This is going to be a squeaker either way.

Romney will go moderately more centrist white guy.

Tyler Perry:

nyysjan:
Obama gaffe: quote taken out of context changing or obfuscating its meaning ("private sector is doing fine (in creating jobs)" debacle)

Romney gaffe: telling people honestly what he thinks of intents to do ("Obama wants to hire more firefighters, teachers and policemen, no we should do the opposite" speech)

Can't wait to find out who Romney picks for the VP slot.

Romney's not going to wild card like Palin. He'd be insane to go for a game-changer, so to speak. This is going to be a squeaker either way.

Romney will go moderately more centrist white guy.

Oh i don't know, it might be more rightwing white guy.
It will be a boring, white, christian, guy either way.

nyysjan:

Tyler Perry:

nyysjan:
Obama gaffe: quote taken out of context changing or obfuscating its meaning ("private sector is doing fine (in creating jobs)" debacle)

Romney gaffe: telling people honestly what he thinks of intents to do ("Obama wants to hire more firefighters, teachers and policemen, no we should do the opposite" speech)

Can't wait to find out who Romney picks for the VP slot.

Romney's not going to wild card like Palin. He'd be insane to go for a game-changer, so to speak. This is going to be a squeaker either way.

Romney will go moderately more centrist white guy.

Oh i don't know, it might be more rightwing white guy.
It will be a boring, white, christian, guy either way.

Well yeah. The Republicans have gone so hard after Obama for having a personality that whoever the VP nom is will be blander than white toast.

NameIsRobertPaulson:
and he's not afraid to go Rush Limbaugh on his opponents.

What does this mean?

I'm sure I know which one Rush Limbaugh is but I forget.

Danny Ocean:

NameIsRobertPaulson:
and he's not afraid to go Rush Limbaugh on his opponents.

What does this mean?

I'm sure I know which one Rush Limbaugh is but I forget.

He's one of those people you bring up when you want to condemn US culture. Professional bigot, invented the term "feminazi" etc.

Tyler Perry:

nyysjan:

Tyler Perry:

Romney's not going to wild card like Palin. He'd be insane to go for a game-changer, so to speak. This is going to be a squeaker either way.

Romney will go moderately more centrist white guy.

Oh i don't know, it might be more rightwing white guy.
It will be a boring, white, christian, guy either way.

Well yeah. The Republicans have gone so hard after Obama for having a personality that whoever the VP nom is will be blander than white toast.

If i remember right, they actually went and stated that they wanted a boring white guy.

Danny Ocean:

NameIsRobertPaulson:
and he's not afraid to go Rush Limbaugh on his opponents.

What does this mean?

I'm sure I know which one Rush Limbaugh is but I forget.

Rush Limbaugh: radio bundit, failed tv pundit, leader (with Norquist) of the republican party (unofficially, but effectively).

thaluikhain:

Danny Ocean:

NameIsRobertPaulson:
and he's not afraid to go Rush Limbaugh on his opponents.

What does this mean?

I'm sure I know which one Rush Limbaugh is but I forget.

He's one of those people you bring up when you want to condemn US culture. Professional bigot, invented the term "feminazi" etc.

nyysjan:
[quote="Tyler Perry" post="528.378498.14801985"]
Rush Limbaugh: radio bundit, failed tv pundit, leader (with Norquist) of the republican party (unofficially, but effectively).

Ahh right. I was confusing him with that guy who cries all the time on national TV.

NameIsRobertPaulson:
If the Tea Party hasn't died entirely, it will be Marco Rubio or Chris Christie. Rubio gives them the best chance. He has charisma, and he's not afraid to go Rush Limbaugh on his opponents.

Isn't that going to work against him? I mean, even in the US there's bound to be a limit how dirty and deceitfull you can go campaigning before people think it's going too far and vote someone else simply because they're more decent.

Blablahb:

NameIsRobertPaulson:
If the Tea Party hasn't died entirely, it will be Marco Rubio or Chris Christie. Rubio gives them the best chance. He has charisma, and he's not afraid to go Rush Limbaugh on his opponents.

Isn't that going to work against him? I mean, even in the US there's bound to be a limit how dirty and deceitfull you can go campaigning before people think it's going too far and vote someone else simply because they're more decent.

It's the US. There is no limit on how deceitful you can be. From the fixed New York and Chicago elections in the early 1900s to the questionable results even today, the lesson remains that if you aren't cheating, you aren't trying.

No party blame here, both parties are equally evil in this account.

I would say Romney's going to win it. The Republicans are all up in arms about how much they dislike Obama, and there are a lot of disenfranchised Democrats out there: some hispanics, for instance, may feel that Obama has thrown them under the bus on the immigration issue, while gay people might feel the same way about how Obama only brings them up when there's an election to win.

However it's a long time till November, and there's plenty of time for things to change. Politics are unstable by nature.

scotth266:
I would say Romney's going to win it. The Republicans are all up in arms about how much they dislike Obama, and there are a lot of disenfranchised Democrats out there: some hispanics, for instance, may feel that Obama has thrown them under the bus on the immigration issue, while gay people might feel the same way about how Obama only brings them up when there's an election to win.

That's true, and they've got legitimate reasons to not want to vote for Obama...but he can point at the alternative.

If Obama wins, in no small part it'll be due to people fearing him less than the other option.

Honestly, I would have to say Obama is going to win in either a complete slide or in a very close election. Romney panders too much and can't be related to by the people.

And my prediction is that if Romney chooses anyone but Rubio as his VP pick, he will get destroyed, especially if he picks Ryan *shudder*.

NameIsRobertPaulson:
Romney won't win. GOP doing what Democrats did in 2004. Just take someone you barely care about (Kerry then, Romney now) and throw them to the wolves. Continue ensuring that nothing happens in congress, make the president look like a failure for not being able to pass anything for the next 4 years, then bring out the real candidate (Rubio) and demolish the opponent.

Simple political strategy, and incredibly effective.

Wait, you mean they're willing to 'risk' Obama the Radical Communist Muslim using his second term to outlaw handguns, implement Sharia Law, jack the tax rate up to 110%, ban talk radio, confiscate everyone's SUVs, shut down all carbon-emitting power plants, and KILL GRANDMAW? (You know, all the stuff they SAID he'd do in his first term that didn't happen.)

Why do the Republicans Hate America so?

NameIsRobertPaulson:
No party blame here, both parties are equally evil in this account.

"BOOOOTH SIDE DOOOO IIIIT!"

What have the Democrats done that even comes CLOSE to the insane slanderthons the Republicans have aimed at the likes of Clinton, Clinton, Kerry, and Obama?

Dags90:

And Mittens is such a super energizing guy, especially among conservatives, it'll be tough on Obama. I don't see Romney winning Ohio with what he said about the auto bailout when attack ads start rolling, and Republicans have never won without Ohio.

Are you calling The Onion liars? :D
The Onion: Romneymania Sweeps America

Tyler Perry:

I just can't tell if a Republican loss will push them further into Full Metal Wingnut territory in the next term, or if it will coerce them to back off a bit.

I really, REALLY hope a few losses will cause them to slow down their hubris-fueled rampage. I don't know how much more of their bullshit the USA can survive.

It all depends on the state of the economy on November 1st. Anything else is essentially meaningless - all that matters is the swing vote, and those who are undecided seem to care only about the economy. If it's bad come election time, they'll go Romney. If it's getting better, Obama. The small section of both liberals and conservatives who might disdain Romney/Obama enough to either not vote or go crazy third party are not going to change their minds and the rest are solidly in one camp or the other in roughly equal measure.

-

peruvianskys:
The small section of both liberals and conservatives who might disdain Romney/Obama enough to either not vote or go crazy third party are not going to change their minds and the rest are solidly in one camp or the other in roughly equal measure.

Eh. Don't agree with that. Turnout in this country for elections is usually only about 50%; which side gets more of it's people out to vote is huge in close elections. This is especially key if neither side is especially enthused about their candidate.

This is probably going to be another very close election. Right now, in all the polls, Obama is a little bit ahead, but it's so early that probably doesn't mean much. Too much could happen between now and november.

peruvianskys:
It all depends on the state of the economy on November 1st. Anything else is essentially meaningless - all that matters is the swing vote, and those who are undecided seem to care only about the economy. If it's bad come election time, they'll go Romney. If it's getting better, Obama.

Meaning that the Republican party has a positive incentive to sabotage the economy in any way they can. As usual.

Also, it's not that simple. The Republicans have had the house since 2010, which means they own part of the economy.

It's also worth mentioning that in polls, more people blame Bush then Obama for the bad economy.

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