Korea, China, Japan and the U.S a conflict breweing.

 Pages PREV 1 2
 

TheIronRuler:
You're wrong about the costs of unification. It cost 1.5 Trillion Euros to unify West and East Germany, but after two decades it had bounced back to becoming one of the leading economic powers in the world.

The numbers I cited come from the book Escape From Camp 14 by Blaine Harden. Here is the full quote to give it a bit more context: "South Koreans have paid close attention to the price tag of German unification. The proportional burden on South Korea, some studies have found, would be two and a half times greater than on West Germany after it absorbed the former East Germany. Studies have found that is could cost more than two trillion dollars over thirty years, raise taxes for six decades and require that ten percent of the South's gross domestic product be spent in the North for the foreseeable future." - p. 199. I'd do a fancy footnote, but I don't know how.
:(

If you take issue with the numbers, I ask that you please be more specific.

Additionally, North Korea =/= East Germany. If I had to wager a guess (and I admit I'm not an expert on Germany by any means), I'd say that East Germany was in much better shape during their reunification with the West than North Korea is currently.

Korea would gain a tremendous advantage if the north is annexed peacefully - HORDES or unskilled labor could flood the markets and in a few years the capital in the south could spread northwards and be invested in enhancing infrastructure, social programs to help the citizens of the north and exploit more of that land's resources.

What need has South Korea with hordes of unskilled labourors? There isn't exactly a labour shortage here at the moment, and the majority of work does isn't in manufacturing, but in the service industries. Many defectors can (and often do) find work in the service industries, but that is with the assistance from the government and in very small numbers. In fact, defectors often need help from the government not just because they need to be re-educated and taught basic work skills but also because, quite often, people in South Korea regard their escaped Northern counterparts as ignorant rednecks that are more trouble than they're worth. It isn't like they're all going to show up and have jobs waiting for them in Seoul or that people will even want to hire them to begin with.

The government, with time, could accommodate such a large group of people, but Park Geun-hye, slated to take the election in two days, is a fiscal conservative. Why would she bother since things are going well in South Korea currently? Token efforts have been made in the face of Kim Jong-Il passing on and there are a lot of programs set up to help many defectors currently, but their numbers are still small.

Sure, in the long term, it might be a good idea but the average person here doesn't want to incur the high costs in their life time; most just want to get on with life and are more concerned with getting a better job or promotion, no matter how much fun it is to fantasize about a unified Korea. The situation is relatively stable. Callous as it may be, why would anyone want to upset that, given how much blood will be shed and the financial aftermath? There is no advantage to doing so and won't be for at least fifty years after they become unified.

I'm sure that most of the North Koreans would love to see the forceful programs against them stopped, and in half a generation you could see them completely all turned away from the teachings of the rulers of N. Korea... well, except for the ruling class. They gonna get lynched, HARD.

What makes you think that North Koreans are going to welcome their liberators with open arms or that they even have an idea of what life outside their borders is like? Media control in the country is tight, and many grow up with only the usual propaganda as an educator at to what state the outside world is in. Hell, those that grow up in forced labour camps don't even know what life is like in the rest of North Korea, let alone in the rest of the world.

I'd wager most don't think anything of how the government operates and see nothing wrong with their situation, relative to "reports" of how rubbish the outside world is. Even half a decade may not be long enough for the people of the North to finally find themselves able to function in the South's society at a reasonable level. Indeed, were unification to happen, many may never find themselves able to function all that well.

There are people who do get radio broadcasts from China, using illegally pertained radios and the like, but the vast majority of those that do live along the boarder. Indeed, many defectors are those who were once a part of the ruling or military class, fell out of favour with the government and would rather face the unknown rather than a firing squad or internment. Counter-propaganda does help to the degree that it can reach these people on the boarder, but what about the rest of the country?

I'd love to see the North and the South unified as much as the next guy, but it isn't as simple as saying "bounce back like Germany did". There are many more obstacles to overcome with this situation, I think and no matter how you slice it, things will have to get really horrible before they get better. Until it can be done peacefully or there are more monetary reasons to do so, I don't see it happening.

Anyway, in about it week it won't matter anyway as we'll all be dust, according to the Mayans (or something, I don't know).

chewbacca1010:

TheIronRuler:
You're wrong about the costs of unification. It cost 1.5 Trillion Euros to unify West and East Germany, but after two decades it had bounced back to becoming one of the leading economic powers in the world.

The numbers I cited come from the book Escape From Camp 14 by Blaine Harden. Here is the full quote to give it a bit more context: "South Koreans have paid close attention to the price tag of German unification. The proportional burden on South Korea, some studies have found, would be two and a half times greater than on West Germany after it absorbed the former East Germany. Studies have found that is could cost more than two trillion dollars over thirty years, raise taxes for six decades and require that ten percent of the South's gross domestic product be spent in the North for the foreseeable future." - p. 199. I'd do a fancy footnote, but I don't know how.
:(

If you take issue with the numbers, I ask that you please be more specific.

Additionally, North Korea =/= East Germany. If I had to wager a guess (and I admit I'm not an expert on Germany by any means), I'd say that East Germany was in much better shape during their reunification with the West than North Korea is currently.

Korea would gain a tremendous advantage if the north is annexed peacefully - HORDES or unskilled labor could flood the markets and in a few years the capital in the south could spread northwards and be invested in enhancing infrastructure, social programs to help the citizens of the north and exploit more of that land's resources.

What need has South Korea with hordes of unskilled labourors? There isn't exactly a labour shortage here at the moment, and the majority of work does isn't in manufacturing, but in the service industries. Many defectors can (and often do) find work in the service industries, but that is with the assistance from the government and in very small numbers. In fact, defectors often need help from the government not just because they need to be re-educated and taught basic work skills but also because, quite often, people in South Korea regard their escaped Northern counterparts as ignorant rednecks that are more trouble than they're worth. It isn't like they're all going to show up and have jobs waiting for them in Seoul or that people will even want to hire them to begin with.

The government, with time, could accommodate such a large group of people, but Park Geun-hye, slated to take the election in two days, is a fiscal conservative. Why would she bother since things are going well in South Korea currently? Token efforts have been made in the face of Kim Jong-Il passing on and there are a lot of programs set up to help many defectors currently, but their numbers are still small.

Sure, in the long term, it might be a good idea but the average person here doesn't want to incur the high costs in their life time; most just want to get on with life and are more concerned with getting a better job or promotion, no matter how much fun it is to fantasize about a unified Korea. The situation is relatively stable. Callous as it may be, why would anyone want to upset that, given how much blood will be shed and the financial aftermath? There is no advantage to doing so and won't be for at least fifty years after they become unified.

I'm sure that most of the North Koreans would love to see the forceful programs against them stopped, and in half a generation you could see them completely all turned away from the teachings of the rulers of N. Korea... well, except for the ruling class. They gonna get lynched, HARD.

What makes you think that North Koreans are going to welcome their liberators with open arms or that they even have an idea of what life outside their borders is like? Media control in the country is tight, and many grow up with only the usual propaganda as an educator at to what state the outside world is in. Hell, those that grow up in forced labour camps don't even know what life is like in the rest of North Korea, let alone in the rest of the world.

I'd wager most don't think anything of how the government operates and see nothing wrong with their situation, relative to "reports" of how rubbish the outside world is. Even half a decade may not be long enough for the people of the North to finally find themselves able to function in the South's society at a reasonable level. Indeed, were unification to happen, many may never find themselves able to function all that well.

There are people who do get radio broadcasts from China, using illegally pertained radios and the like, but the vast majority of those that do live along the boarder. Indeed, many defectors are those who were once a part of the ruling or military class, fell out of favour with the government and would rather face the unknown rather than a firing squad or internment. Counter-propaganda does help to the degree that it can reach these people on the boarder, but what about the rest of the country?

I'd love to see the North and the South unified as much as the next guy, but it isn't as simple as saying "bounce back like Germany did". There are many more obstacles to overcome with this situation, I think and no matter how you slice it, things will have to get really horrible before they get better. Until it can be done peacefully or there are more monetary reasons to do so, I don't see it happening.

Anyway, in about it week it won't matter anyway as we'll all be dust, according to the Mayans (or something, I don't know).

.
You took the time to write a detailed reply, kudos to you dear sir! It was a pleasure to read through.

I have always worked under the condition that a unification will be made peacefully. If a war erupts, then the death-toll and destruction will outweigh any foreseeable advantage in the future. I agree that the costs for a unification would be massive, but South Korea doesn't have to drag the north towards a service-based economy. There isn't any infrastructure made to support a large service sector. You are correct that unlike the German reunification, the social and economical situation of the people living in the two Koreas is much more different. However you should also bear in mind that those who lived in East Germany lived under a Communist regime - although much less oppressive compared to N. Korea it was of the same breed.

The policies made towards some of the population remind me of the Soviet Holodomor in the Ukraine and secret police employed by the same Soviet regime at the time. This tactic is not something new, but what disturbs me is the fact that we have not witnessed a strong resistance. This can obviously be caused by the information block there is coming out of and into N. Korea. These tactics were also used in China and Ethiopia, tactics that dragged mass cases of starvation with them. Back in the Soviet arena, those Kulaks were also mass deported to labor camps in cold Siberia and lived there in very bad conditions. I believe that the memory of these actions inflicted upon the people cannot be forgotten or washed away. With violence being monopolized by the state in any avenue, the people have no way to rise up. Collective punishment works, and I don't think that N. Korea had really steered away from the early actions made by the Soviets and the Chinese (and also under Ethiopia's Dreg). I think that the difference here is that unlike the policies which lead to the Soviet's powers collapse and China's descent into a policy more akin to Fascism than Communism, N. Korea had tightened its borders and done the opposite of what the Soviets did in the 80s and 90s. Even if the people are wholly ignorant, the memory will live on. The only difference being is that they will suffer in silence.

Hi, I'm back.

Japan needs to be more tough.

Their pacifist article 9 of their constitution - understandable back in 1947 - needs to be cancelled asap.

That pacifist agenda is a greenlight for other more dodgy nations in Asia to start bullying; except Japan is the 3rd biggest economy, has an impressive military (sorry Self Defence Force) and even more impressive allies. No need for this gently gently approach.

I am Scottish but my wife is Japanese.

I am a Scottish and Japanese nationalist: a Japanese nationalist on these issues.

Love Japan, wish it would be more vocally confident and less reticent in its power.

Regards

Nightspore

 Pages PREV 1 2

Reply to Thread

This thread is locked