European Politics General (Canada welcome too, I suppose)

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bastardofmelbourne:
In Australia, there was a push about fifteen years ago to try and set up our first nuclear reactor, but it got shot down mainly due to public misconceptions about how nuclear reactors work. Australia has a colossal quantity of uranium - a third of the world's total uranium reserves - and nuclear power could make the Australian energy economy almost entirely self-sufficient, but the combined force of misguided environmentalists and the coal lobby has repeatedly shafted any advancement on the topic. So we end up running off of fucking coal. We're sitting on the natural resources necessary to become a major player in the future energy market, and we're keeping the lights on with the same shit the Victorians used.

When you think about it, nuclear power is perfect for Australia. Earthquakes are rare, we have massive tracts of uninhabited or uninhabitable land in which to isolate the reactors or the waste disposal sites from population centres, and we have all the uranium and thorium we could possibly need to fuel the things. Instead, we're propping up the coal industry. It's like forcing everyone to use Betamax tapes instead of Netflix.

It should be remembered that the single greatest export for Australia happens to be coal.

Nuclear is scary people, buy more coal!

Thaluikhain:
It should be remembered that the single greatest export for Australia happens to be coal.

Great! They can take it. They can have as much as they want; it'll keep the coal miners in business for a few more decades.

The way things are going, in fifty years China will be a generation ahead of us on renewables and we'll be stuck burning brown fucking coal. Like cavemen.

Gergar12:
Macron is pro-nuclear, France is very lucky to have him. We don't get many pro-nuclear candidates in the western-world due to the fear-mongering by the left. With many liberals(not all) in the US it's anti-GMO, anti-nuclear power, and anti-vaccines & pseudoscience medicine, and if your a conservative you accept science when it's conventional for you. If your a neo-liberal you cut nuclear-power research because big gov't is bad.

Yeah, nuclear is the one thing I keep butting heads with the French left over. I don't get the opposition to it; it's clean, efficient, gives jobs, and led the country to be auto-sufficient on the energy level.

That being said, I don't think France is lucky to have Macron. It takes more than simply being pro-nuclear to be a good candidate, hell, both Le Pen and Fillon are also pro-nuclear, and Macron seems like he'll be rather dreadful on a plethora of other issues. He's a bought candidate, the big money candidate, as we can see through his approval of CETA, which is absolutely dreadful for the French consumer and the French producer.

Also, neoliberals can be pro-nuclear, as Macron is (Emmanuel Macron is pretty much the quintessential neoliberal as far as I am concerned), they are simply for the eventual privatization of it.

Catnip1024:
Smith didn't do himself any favours in the leadership contest, when he came across as properly conniving and two-faced. It says a lot when I actually preferred that Corbyn kept the job than it went to him.

That's pretty much something you could say of the entire Blairite wing of the party.

Satinavian:
Overall this whole stuff is really complicated which makes it easy for everyone to pick detail fitting their own narrative or agenda. The Telegraph article is a good example of that, but articles celebrating the renewable energy success in Germany in other outlets are not that better.
Personally i nowadays skip newspaper articles on that topic and go directly to scientific papers on the energy transition or at least to reports of independend scientific institutes.

Even then, people tend to be biased in one way or another. Anybody proposing to write a paper has some sort of end goal in mind, and a whole set of underlying subconscious biases.

I thought I'd chuck the link in to give some sort of source to my claims of the Germans importing energy, to be fair (people around here can be mighty sceptical when they are feeling contrary), I'd not come across the renewable issues. And since papers on the state of German energy infrastructure are likely to be published in German, I thought I'd skip trying to read one.

The bigger issue with media pieces on nuclear is that the people presenting often have absolutely no understanding of the subject. Which goes for all technical stories, I suppose. And for MPs.

Sonmi:

Gergar12:
Macron is pro-nuclear, France is very lucky to have him. We don't get many pro-nuclear candidates in the western-world due to the fear-mongering by the left. With many liberals(not all) in the US it's anti-GMO, anti-nuclear power, and anti-vaccines & pseudoscience medicine, and if your a conservative you accept science when it's conventional for you. If your a neo-liberal you cut nuclear-power research because big gov't is bad.

Yeah, nuclear is the one thing I keep butting heads with the French left over. I don't get the opposition to it; it's clean, efficient, gives jobs, and led the country to be auto-sufficient on the energy level.

That being said, I don't think France is lucky to have Macron. It takes more than simply being pro-nuclear to be a good candidate, hell, both Le Pen and Fillon are also pro-nuclear, and Macron seems like he'll be rather dreadful on a plethora of other issues. He's a bought candidate, the big money candidate, as we can see through his approval of CETA, which is absolutely dreadful for the French consumer and the French producer.

Also, neoliberals can be pro-nuclear, as Macron is (Emmanuel Macron is pretty much the quintessential neoliberal as far as I am concerned), they are simply for the eventual privatization of it.

Catnip1024:
Smith didn't do himself any favours in the leadership contest, when he came across as properly conniving and two-faced. It says a lot when I actually preferred that Corbyn kept the job than it went to him.

That's pretty much something you could say of the entire Blairite wing of the party.

I was talking about US neoliberals. Bill Clinton who is the neoliberal in the US cut nuclear power research from the government despite the fact that we have nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, and submarines at that time. Obama who in my opinion was not a neoliberal due to his bank reform supported nuclear power, but had to do it quietly because the US public is uninformed about it. It drives me insane when people like Jill Stein think nuclear power plants are literal ticking time bombs. Even Bernie wanted to shut down a Vermont Nuclear Power plant before many experts suggested it.

If your a conservative who accepts the science of man-made climate change or a liberal that accepts nuclear power, GMOS, and vaccines than you prove your a educated, critical leader who is willing to not bend-over to populists, but it also takes an educated populace to elect those type of leaders.

A Euro politics general and only one post about Schulz?

Huh. Either you guys really don't care about Germany/are uninformed about Germany, or you're actually super informed and know that if the SPD should manage to make Schulz Kanzler he along with his entire party will turn on their electorate and roll back all their promises in breakneck fashion like they always do. So it doesn't really make a difference if the SPD wins because they will turn into an incompetent CDU the moment the last vote has been cast.

I'm feeling really down about this election man. When you're stuck between Merkel and the SPD... I wish I could vote in France or Spain right now :(

EDIT: I just realized they will roll back on their promises either way because they've already promised they won't form a coalition with the CDU no matter what. Which they most assuredly will if they lose (likely). Hopefully it will the party for good, fuck em.

Gergar12:
I was talking about US neoliberals. Bill Clinton who is the neoliberal in the US cut nuclear power research from the government despite the fact that we have nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, and submarines at that time. Obama who in my opinion was not a neoliberal due to his bank reform supported nuclear power, but had to do it quietly because the US public is uninformed about it. It drives me insane when people like Jill Stein think nuclear power plants are literal ticking time bombs. Even Bernie wanted to shut down a Vermont Nuclear Power plant before many experts suggested it.

Yeah, the antagonism directed at nuclear energy is completely bonkers.

And I really don't think Dodd-Frank is enough to disqualify Obama as a neoliberal, Dodd-Frank was barely a slapped on the wrist.

RiseOfTheWhiteWolf:
A Euro politics general and only one post about Schulz?

Huh. Either you guys really don't care about Germany/are uninformed about Germany, or you're actually super informed and know that if the SPD should manage to make Schulz Kanzler he along with his entire party will turn on their electorate and roll back all their promises in breakneck fashion like they always do. So it doesn't really make a difference if the SPD wins because they will turn into an incompetent CDU the moment the last vote has been cast.

I'm feeling really down about this election man. When you're stuck between Merkel and the SPD... I wish I could vote in France or Spain right now :(

EDIT: I just realized they will roll back on their promises either way because they've already promised they won't form a coalition with the CDU no matter what. Which they most assuredly will if they lose (likely). Hopefully it will the party for good, fuck em.

I apologize, I really don't know much about Germany, and it really surprised me too that Germany was ignored for so long. I'd honestly love to learn about what's happening there, but most of the news outlets covering German politics are, well, in German, and that falls outside of my linguistic capacity.

Feel free to talk about Germany though, it's absolutely relevant to the thread, and I imagine people will appreciate your insight.

RiseOfTheWhiteWolf:
A Euro politics general and only one post about Schulz?

Huh. Either you guys really don't care about Germany/are uninformed about Germany, or you're actually super informed and know that if the SPD should manage to make Schulz Kanzler he along with his entire party will turn on their electorate and roll back all their promises in breakneck fashion like they always do. So it doesn't really make a difference if the SPD wins because they will turn into an incompetent CDU the moment the last vote has been cast.

I'm feeling really down about this election man. When you're stuck between Merkel and the SPD... I wish I could vote in France or Spain right now :(

EDIT: I just realized they will roll back on their promises either way because they've already promised they won't form a coalition with the CDU no matter what. Which they most assuredly will if they lose (likely). Hopefully it will the party for good, fuck em.

Well the thing about Germany is that its quite ''boring'' when you compare it to other nations. Its not ruled by a destructive demagogue like Trump, its not taking a massive gamble like Britain nor is it on the verge of falling to radicals like France is. The populists do have a small surge in Germany but they aren't close to seizing power just yet. For now the biggest names are Merkel and Shulz who are both quite sane and can be argued to have the barest minimum of competence required to run a country. There is no immediate crisis in Germany and even if the EU were to fall than Germany might be the one nation that can keep itself standing in a world that's rapidly outgrowing Europe.

Germany obviously has its problems but in comparison with everyone else things seem pretty stable over there. Discussions about European politics right now can either go into direction of panic over populists trowing the continent into decline or gloating about that gosh darn establishment getting thought a lesson. Neither of those really apply to Germany so there's less reason to mention it.

Catnip1024:

Satinavian:
Overall this whole stuff is really complicated which makes it easy for everyone to pick detail fitting their own narrative or agenda. The Telegraph article is a good example of that, but articles celebrating the renewable energy success in Germany in other outlets are not that better.
Personally i nowadays skip newspaper articles on that topic and go directly to scientific papers on the energy transition or at least to reports of independend scientific institutes.

Even then, people tend to be biased in one way or another. Anybody proposing to write a paper has some sort of end goal in mind, and a whole set of underlying subconscious biases.

Sure, but compared to the Telegraph which obviously can't write an article about the German energy situation without making it into an opinion piece about British energy politics while taking numbers from some of the most partisan actors in the German energy market, those papers are an epitome of neutrality. More important, they provide far more numbers and far less interpretations and they name the constraints and parameters needed to interpret thisee numbers.

I thought I'd chuck the link in to give some sort of source to my claims of the Germans importing energy, to be fair (people around here can be mighty sceptical when they are feeling contrary), I'd not come across the renewable issues. And since papers on the state of German energy infrastructure are likely to be published in German, I thought I'd skip trying to read one.

I am not saying what you did was wrong in any way. It is difficult from the outsider perspective to make sense what happens there.

And yes, Germany is indeed importing energy. Has been for years. It also is exporting energy. And it is actually exporting more than it is importing. But it is paying more for the imports than it is getting for the exports due to price fluctuations.* So what actually is happening is that Germany uses the European energy market to absorb some fluctuations and mismatch between production and consumption and that it is paying its neighbours for that favor.

*I haven't looked at the 2015 numbers yet and i think the complete analysis for 2016 is not even available yet, but there shouldn't have been a recent change.

The bigger issue with media pieces on nuclear is that the people presenting often have absolutely no understanding of the subject. Which goes for all technical stories, I suppose. And for MPs.

Oh, yes. The reporting on nuclear is really extraordinarily bad.

Also i am not sure if you noticed, but your linked article is four years old. The renewable energy capacity in Germanay has risen in the meantime, some of the problems mentioned solved and the looming disaster did not materialize.

Schulz being an option did indeed change the German election significantly. Before, evveryone knew that Merkel would be reelected because there was no serious contender. People didn't like Gabriel, the Greens don't have someone appealing right now and all other parties are too small/extreme to lead a coalition.

Now with Schulz, he will push the SPD back to the left. Which means his party can and will try to gather those voters they lost in the last decade after Schr?der moved them to the right to compete for the center. He also was not part of the last gouvernment even if his party was because he comes back from the European stage. So he is able to attack the last gouvernment and Merkel without looking like a hypocrit. Gabriel would not have been able to do the same because Merkels politics were CDU-SPD coalition politics.
Brexit made the EU far more liked than before, so Schultz coming from there helps his population.

The SPD having a valid contender who might actually change something is bad for all the traditional protest parties. The extreme left, "Die Linke" will lose out because the SPD might be able to get at least some of the things done Linke-voters want. The AfD is also loosing out. Not only is the refugee crisis more or less coming to an end as the numbers are not really increasing anymore, before using the refugee theme, that party had Euro-scepticism as theme and that is no longer a vote winner. And many AfD-Voters went there because of disgruntelment and wanting any change from Merkel - which Schulz now could prwide with saner politics.

In Foreign politics nothing will change, Merkel and Schultz have pretty much the same ideas there and most Germans are OK with that. So it is not really a big topic this time. Other parties have other ideas (AfD wants to dissolve Eurozone and Linke wants to cut Greek debt and lift sanctions against Russia), but i seriously doubt that will help them much.

Sonmi:
I apologize, I really don't know much about Germany, and it really surprised me too that Germany was ignored for so long. I'd honestly love to learn about what's happening there, but most of the news outlets covering German politics are, well, in German, and that falls outside of my linguistic capacity.

Feel free to talk about Germany though, it's absolutely relevant to the thread, and I imagine people will appreciate your insight.

Schulz is being hyped up as the best thing since sliced bread with the SPD youth pumping out slightly cringy memes about him and the mainstream media giving him tons of coverage. It has sent a ripple of excitement over the political landscape (its a German ripple of excitement mind, so don't expect anything too hot) but in my opinion at least its not so much about Schulz himself. Rather, it somewhat cures the massive headache which has plagued Germany for the last 8 years at least, namely "If not Merkel, then who?". I'm not kidding when I say that Schulz is actually the first guy in 8 years who begins to approach something at least vaguely resembling competence - outside of Merkel of course. Thats why people here started calling the Bundestagswahlen "Merkel reelection day". German euphoria will be short lived however, because:

1) Schulz spent the last decade or so dicking around in Br?ssels working for and with the EU. Thats actually a massive advantage because the German people are very pro-EU and it stops people from accusing Schulz of carrying responsibility for any fuckups which might have happened on a national level in the past years. However, its not enough to make everyone forget about his entire fucking party has pulled in that time. The SPD made itself extremely unpopular in 2002 mainly by implementing the "Hartz" system, which almost everyone agrees is not only a massive failure but also breaks the German constitution and even violates basic rights in places. After that they spent the last 3 election cycles playing lapdog to the CDU. Not even 4 years ago they sent in a guy called Steinbr?ck as candidate. He spent half a year banging the wardrums, flaming the CDU, promising the party would shift further left again. Then they lost the election (no surprises). Not even a month later Steinbr?ck had disappeared, the party rolled back on several promises and just to put the cherry on top they formed a coalition with the CDU, ensuring for the next 4 years there would be no real opposition within the German parliament. I could name endless examples of this behaviour but this post would go on for hours - suffice to say since the turn of the millenium the SPD has proven beyond any doubt that they are liars and bad ones at that. People are fed up and Schulz won't make them forget it. It doesn't matter if he's a good or bad guy, whether he's competent or incompetent, he will lose because people (rightly) don't trust his party.

2) What seems like a shake up actually will end up solidifying Merkel dominance. We Germans aren't actually all that happy with our politicians. It used to be that everyone hated those fucks in Berlin except for Merkel, who for some reason was liked (I don't begin to understand how the fuck that happened, but it did). Since the refugee crisis thats over and everyone hates Merkel too. Thats why die Linke and the AfD could start winning voters. Problem? Now that Schulz is out and about, he's winning back lots of voters who had switched to those parties, so the Linke and AfD will drop to 5-10% irrelevance while the SPD grows. However, they won't win enough because see point 1; too many people don't trust them. What you end up with is 4 weak parties, a semi-powerful SPD and a powerful CDU. Add them up and what do you get when all the votes are cast? Thats right, an SPD CDU alliance led by Merkel with a weak "opposition" which is hardly worth the name.

In short: fuck the SPD, those assholes can go die in a fire, Merkel is all but guaranteed. Personally I've already decided one of two parties will get my vote. Option 1: the AfD. I don't actually like them at all. Their electoral program is like 95% retarded shit. But the media is outrageously dishonest about them and so many people making them out to be Adolf Supernazi Hitler Sieg Heil 88 party when they are most clearly not really pisses me off, so I might vote for them out of spite. Option 2: Die Partei who are a satirical party. Their candidate is Somuncu, a somewhat controversial satirist who I really like. I briefly considered die Linke but then I read their electoral program and realised they want to nationalize all banks. Plus they are way too fond of the DDR.

Hades:
snip

True. Politics in the US and Britain are like watching a high paced action thriller called "Nuclear Threat: Scourge of the West" about charismatic people running around doing exciting things while making stuff explode and having copious amounts of banter. German politics is more like watching a drama about a pensioner dying very, very, very slowly from heartburn and chronic ingrown toenail syndrome.

RiseOfTheWhiteWolf:
*snip*

So Merkel again, more likely than not? Don't you guys have term limits on the office of Chancellor?

Sonmi:

RiseOfTheWhiteWolf:
*snip*

So Merkel again, more likely than not? Don't you guys have term limits on the office of Chancellor?

Nope.

:(

Maybe Le Pen will annex the Ruhrgebiet and free us from this boring bulldog-cow hybrid? She'd have to go through Belgium but those guys are used to it by now.

EDIT: You're French, right? What do you think about the EU parliament lifting Le Pens immunity over tweets? I can only see it backfiring in a really bad way.

RiseOfTheWhiteWolf:

Sonmi:

RiseOfTheWhiteWolf:
*snip*

So Merkel again, more likely than not? Don't you guys have term limits on the office of Chancellor?

Nope.

:(

Well shit, you guys should seriously look into that.

Also, I read a bit about die Linke because I had nothing to do at work and it seemed something that was worth learning about, and from the most basic information I found it said that they were looking to nationalize financial services rather than privatize them.

RiseOfTheWhiteWolf:
EDIT: You're French, right? What do you think about the EU parliament lifting Le Pens immunity over tweets? I can only see it backfiring in a really bad way.

I am French-ish, I was born in Canada, but my parents are European, mostly French-German.

I don't think much is going to come out of it, to be honest, though I find the reason for lifting her immunity rather absurd. It might create a bit of animosity between the Republicains and the EU, which might affect who they are going to vote on the second round if Le Pen and Macron both pass, but at this point, it's all speculation.

Sonmi:

RiseOfTheWhiteWolf:

Sonmi:

So Merkel again, more likely than not? Don't you guys have term limits on the office of Chancellor?

Nope.

:(

Well shit, you guys should seriously look into that.

Also, I read a bit about die Linke because I had nothing to do at work and it seemed something that was worth learning about, and from the most basic information I found it said that they were looking to nationalize financial services rather than privatize them.

Its comical. I think she's been in power for longer than Hitler now. Does this mean we get to say Merkel is literally worse than Hitler?

Sorry about that thing with the Linke, I must have had a brainfart. Completely correct of course, they want to nationalize all of them, which I personally think is a really stupid idea.

Sonmi:

RiseOfTheWhiteWolf:
EDIT: You're French, right? What do you think about the EU parliament lifting Le Pens immunity over tweets? I can only see it backfiring in a really bad way.

I am French-ish, I was born in Canada, but my parents are European, mostly French-German.

I don't think much is going to come out of it, to be honest, though I find the reason for lifting her immunity rather absurd. It might create a bit of animosity between the Republicains and the EU, which might affect who they are going to vote on the second round if Le Pen and Macron both pass, but at this point, it's all speculation.

I feel like lots of people are going to look at this and say: "So after all the shit which has happened in Brussels over the years, their lifting Le Pens immunity for the crime of showing what ISIS is up to on Twitter? What the fuck EU? I'm voting a eurosceptic party!"

Also Fillons home got raided.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39146848
Ouch. This guys done for good. I'll be seriously surprised if he doesn't drop out in the next few days.

Lifting Le Pen immunity was probably not the best move they could have made, it does send the wrong message, would they have do it to a Europhile members? Although I do wonder if it'll play into the allegation she used her budget to hire people to work for her campaign, maybe they'll be able to do more now seeing as her partisan literally do not care about corruption apparently (which, imo, just reinforce the idea that there voting for her out of racism rather than bringing new blood to the government).

Fillon is definitely not doing well, I though he'd have shaken off the wife hiring scandal by now, but he's really bad at handling it, he keep saying she actually did work but not producing anything that even look like proof. But it seems like he intend to not drop out... can the republican kick him out?

This all help Macron, but his support is very weak, I feel like he's one bad move away from crumbling into dust, plus I feel like on election day a lot of his supporter just won't show up to vote. He should start talking with Hamon, to strike a deal, he might be able to get him to drop out before the first round, if he did that Macron would pretty much win for sure. But as it is, I think we're heading for a Filon x Le Pen with Le Pen winning 2nd round...

So based on some of the comments here I looked up the Le Pen immunity story. As I understand it now, the EU parliament has voted to allow prosecuters to prosecute Le Pen for a specific crime, tweeting pictures of IS beheadings.

I find such immunity strange to begin with and I find it even stranger that parliament are the ones to vote on when MP's can be prosecuted. Wouldn't it be much better to have a judge decide who can be prosecuted, if you want to give MP's extra protection like that?

Pseudonym:
I find such immunity strange to begin with and I find it even stranger that parliament are the ones to vote on when MP's can be prosecuted. Wouldn't it be much better to have a judge decide who can be prosecuted, if you want to give MP's extra protection like that?

It is basically so that MPs can't be charged with stupid accusations whenever laws are voted on you don't want those particular individuals to cast a vote.

Today that seems unneccessary and an immunity too high a price but some earlier parliaments had problems with other gouvernment branches keeping MPs from appearing via phony accusations.

Pseudonym:
So based on some of the comments here I looked up the Le Pen immunity story. As I understand it now, the EU parliament has voted to allow prosecuters to prosecute Le Pen for a specific crime, tweeting pictures of IS beheadings.

Please we all know that they only want to do it because the EU are fascist dictators that want to cement their power by imprisoning political opponents. #Hillaryforprison #IstandwithLePen

RiseOfTheWhiteWolf:
It used to be that everyone hated those fucks in Berlin except for Merkel, who for some reason was liked (I don't begin to understand how the fuck that happened, but it did). Since the refugee crisis thats over and everyone hates Merkel too.

I wouldn't exactly say that everyone liked Mother Angie and more that she merely wasn't hated.
I know several people who voted for her last time and none could tell me why or what she stood for.
It was mostly: She's in charge and hasn't fucked up royally until now.
In the spirit of Never touch a running system.

RiseOfTheWhiteWolf:
Option 2: Die Partei who are a satirical party. Their candidate is Somuncu, a somewhat controversial satirist who I really like.

#Macht?bernahme2017

Satinavian:

Pseudonym:
I find such immunity strange to begin with and I find it even stranger that parliament are the ones to vote on when MP's can be prosecuted. Wouldn't it be much better to have a judge decide who can be prosecuted, if you want to give MP's extra protection like that?

It is basically so that MPs can't be charged with stupid accusations whenever laws are voted on you don't want those particular individuals to cast a vote.

Today that seems unneccessary and an immunity too high a price but some earlier parliaments had problems with other gouvernment branches keeping MPs from appearing via phony accusations.

Fair enough. I'd still prefer it if the prosecuters had to ask a judge for permission rather than the parliament. It seems wrong to have parliament decide whether MP's can be prosecuted. Even if they made a reasonable decision this time people are still suspicious about it. On the other hand certain people would have complained about 'unelected judges' being 'enemies of the people' by deciding against what they want. Besides how it looks it also seems like a bad way to seperate the powers of government.

Initially this story confused the hell out of me. In my country MP's do have pretty much absolute protection in terms of free speech when they speak in parliament (I don't think that can be lifted either, if an MP shows a picture of a beheading in our parliament while saying you should totally join IS, he wouldn't get reelected but I don't think he can be prosecuted for that) so I first thought this was about that. Though that protection doesn't extend to things said elsewhere. Hence why recently a prominent politician was slapped on the wrist by a judge by calling for 'less marroccons' at a campaign rally.

Fillon's campaign is a sinking boat, and the rats seem to be jumping off ship in a progressively more frantic manner.

Le Point seems to be fixed on the idea of Juppe replacing him, unsure of whether or not that's going to happen, but it seems quite possible. I doubt Fillon will keep standing up for himself if his whole party abandons him.

Juppe would likely do considerably better in the first round, possibly even taking Macron's spot as Le Pen's opponent.

Sonmi:
Fillon's campaign is a sinking boat, and the rats seem to be jumping off ship in a progressively more frantic manner.

Le Point seems to be fixed on the idea of Juppe replacing him, unsure of whether or not that's going to happen, but it seems quite possible. I doubt Fillon will keep standing up for himself if his whole party abandons him.

Juppe would likely do considerably better in the first round, possibly even taking Macron's spot as Le Pen's opponent.

Well Sarco was croche and now Filon too... What are the odds that Juppe will be okay? By just throwing another person at it without properly vetting him it's just seems like there setting themselves up for a massive problem, cause if it turned out that 3 out 3 of there potential candidate were corrupt, its not just the current election they'll have problem with.

Plus if they try to replace him, he might not leave quietly and that could further damage them.

Meiam:

Sonmi:
Fillon's campaign is a sinking boat, and the rats seem to be jumping off ship in a progressively more frantic manner.

Le Point seems to be fixed on the idea of Juppe replacing him, unsure of whether or not that's going to happen, but it seems quite possible. I doubt Fillon will keep standing up for himself if his whole party abandons him.

Juppe would likely do considerably better in the first round, possibly even taking Macron's spot as Le Pen's opponent.

Well Sarco was croche and now Filon too... What are the odds that Juppe will be okay? By just throwing another person at it without properly vetting him it's just seems like there setting themselves up for a massive problem, cause if it turned out that 3 out 3 of there potential candidate were corrupt, its not just the current election they'll have problem with.

Plus if they try to replace him, he might not leave quietly and that could further damage them.

We already know Juppe is croche, mate.

He's been convicted of misusing public funds at the benefit of the Republicains some fifteen years ago, he decided to exile himself to Montreal for the duration of his ban on political activity. Fillon doesn't seem like he'll rebound from all of this though, so it would be in the advantage of the UMP to risk setting him aside and going for Juppe instead.

... I guess I understand better why Sarco wanted to change his party name then. How hard is it to field a non corrupt candidate?! And they wonder why people are disillusioned with mainstream party...

I guess better a 15 year old problem than a new one, but I don't see how Juppe could recover the ground lost by Fillon, they'd still be essentially hoping for something really big to tank either Macron or Le Pen campaign.

I just love that he specifically went to Montreal when found corrupt, did he setup a construction company or something over here? XD

I'm getting annoyed that EU migrants in the UK (and UK migrants in the EU) are being referred to as "bargaining chips".

The UK House of Lords voted against the Commons proposal for Brexit, citing that there wasn't enough to protect those EU citizens living in the UK. Commentators have criticised this decision, saying that Britain shouldn't give away its "bargaining chip",. They argue that setting in stone your intent to look after resident EU people risks the EU not reciprocating after the UK has made the commitment. In other words, they think it is better to dangle the toes of EU citizens in the fire, and threaten the EU with throwing them out if the EU doesn't promise to be nice to the millions of British workers living on the mainland. It bothers me because, Jesus Christ, they are people at the end of the day who don't want to see their future batted back and forth by a capricious government. Much like the Syrian Refugee crisis, where groups of refugees are referred to as "hordes" or "swarms", its another nasty bit of de-personalising language that turns real people into lesser things to be shuffled around or ignored.

So don't do that.

Meiam:
... I guess I understand better why Sarco wanted to change his party name then. How hard is it to field a non corrupt candidate?! And they wonder why people are disillusioned with mainstream party...

Hamon's not corrupt and is principled...

I really don't think he'll win, but out of the shitheap of politicians that ran these elections, he's easily the best candidate.

Meiam:
I guess better a 15 year old problem than a new one, but I don't see how Juppe could recover the ground lost by Fillon, they'd still be essentially hoping for something really big to tank either Macron or Le Pen campaign.

Most of Macron's support comes from the Hollande's branch of the PS and from Juppeistes who feel jilted by losing the nomination despite being by far the favourite to win the race, and the elections. Polls using Juppe instead of Fillon showed him getting 27-28% of the vote on the first round, enough to send Macron back under the 20% mark. Macron might be the favourite at the moment, but he's also got the least engaged, and most fickle, supporters.

Juppe's boat has sailed though.

Meiam:
I just love that he specifically went to Montreal when found corrupt, did he setup a construction company or something over here? XD

He gave classes at Uni, a cousin of mine had the opportunity to go through one of his classes, apparently he was a good teacher.

----

Also, Sturgeon seems to be adamant on having indyref2, despite netting only 50% of popular support in the latest polling.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39213767

I doubt it'd pass, but I'm still eager to see what happens with Scotland now that Brexit seems to be getting more concrete every day, even considering the House of Lords' temporary setback.

https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/839754671619178497

So Ireland's looking like the EU-UK border now.

In how many ways can you say "unenforceable", "impractical" and "Republican Resurgence"?

bastardofmelbourne:

The way things are going, in fifty years China will be a generation ahead of us on renewables and we'll be stuck burning brown fucking coal. Like cavemen.

Didn't cavemen use wood?

Also, don't be too impressed with China. Don't you know that they're behind the global warming hoax? Damn commies and their renewables want to hold us back! Trump said so!

Ninjamedic:
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/839754671619178497

So Ireland's looking like the EU-UK border now.

In how many ways can you say "unenforceable", "impractical" and "Republican Resurgence"?

Well that's good for the UK isn't it?

I mean it's not good for them that they are leaving BUT it seems like Sebigbos has finally stopped listening to the voices in her head telling her everything is gonna be allright.

Dornedas:

I mean it's not good for them that they are leaving BUT it seems like Sebigbos has finally stopped listening to the voices in her head telling her everything is gonna be allright.

I'm sure throwing the north into chaos in the midst of a corruption scandal and pandering the the most extreme group in the equation won't potentially risk England's position as a financial center.

Nope.

Can't see it.

Meiam:

Fillon is definitely not doing well, I though he'd have shaken off the wife hiring scandal by now...

I thought he would have too, except until I read - I think correctly - that she didn't do the work to deserve it.

A politician using government money to pay the spouse for secretarial work where the spouse really does sort mail, type up letters and arrange travel itineraries generates mild grumbling. A politician shoving government money to the spouse for doing nothing is enragingly fraudulent.

You guys think the recent Turk-Dutch debacle will end up influencing these upcoming elections?

Personally, I fear the PVV will be able to profit from that. Not enough to have them at the numbers they polled at a year ago, but still more than expected.

Sonmi:
You guys think the recent Turk-Dutch debacle will end up influencing these upcoming elections?

Personally, I fear the PVV will be able to profit from that. Not enough to have them at the numbers they polled at a year ago, but still more than expected.

I don't see anyone else benefitting from that, it just legitimize there complaints and make something seems more serious than it needs to be.

Erdogan has just gone full insane, the entire things was a cluserfuck and the Dutch were fully in there right, and then Erdogan just kept pouring gasoline over it all (seriously, threatening sanction?!), so I can't really blame the Dutch for doing that, but it does play in the extreme right hands.

I guess you can make a case that Europe will always stand up for it's value and you don't need extreme right party and all that, but people who worry about that sort of stuff will always think you were too soft and should have done more, so I don't think you'll win any of them over.

The turkish new constitution referendum will be ugly. 3 possibility: Erdogan win, where he become middle east Putin and strengthen religious institution while weakening everything else and letting corruption run rampant. Erdogan lose where, he'll probably just go mad dictator route and just have the military take over everything (how convenient that it was just purge of anyone not fully supportive of him). Or Erdogan "win", with 98% people voting for the new constitution and announce a new statue made of gold in his honor.

Ninjamedic:
So Ireland's looking like the EU-UK border now.

In how many ways can you say "unenforceable", "impractical" and "Republican Resurgence"?

Minor point, but that border has been "unenforceable" for a while. The UK still processes people entering the country from outside the EU. It's the reason people flying between Northern Ireland and the mainland get passport checks (iirc).

And funnily enough, there hasn't been any Republican resurgence because of it. Almost like common sense and shit works.

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