Pachter: This Is The Final Generation

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Pachter: This Is The Final Generation

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Xbox 720, PlayStation 4, uh, Wiii? None of these are going to happen, and if they do happen it's not going to be any time soon, says industry analyst Michael Pachter. According to him, this is the last console generation.

You can go ahead and take that 800 dollars you were saving up for a Xbox 720 or PS4 and try to inject your local economy with some cash flow, because according to Wedbush Morgan industry fortune teller supreme Michael Pachter, this generation will be the last generation of consoles. Ever.

"I think we've seen the last generation of consoles," Pachter said at the GamesBeat conference today. What Pachter saw in his crystal ball was this: Nintendo might release an upgraded Wii with HD and more storage, but Sony and Microsoft probably won't release another console. That's because there's just no more money in it, and third parties won't want it either.

"[Third party publishers] are not going to support a PS4 or Xbox 720," he said. "The content is not going to change in any meaningful ways because the publishers can't afford it." Instead, Pachter envisions a standard delivery form - maybe something like the recently announced OnLive cloud-based system that delivers on-demand gaming by crunching data on remote servers and displaying video over the intertubes to your PC or TV.

The developers of OnLive are on the same wavelength as Pachter. "This is the last major console cycle," OnLive's Steve Perlman said. "If not this one, then definitely the next one."

Pachter's peers, however, aren't as quick to jump to conclusions. Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital argued that there'd be one more generation that would hit by 2012, and David Cole of DFC Intelligence thinks that by 2012, the PS3 will be king of the software sales hill and Nintendo and Microsoft will be forced to put on new consoles.

[Via 1UP]

Permalink

Keane Ng:
David Cole of DFC Intelligence thinks that by 2012, the PS3 will be king of the software sales hill and Nintendo and Microsoft will be forced to put on new consoles.

If there's anything left in 2012, sure.

Conspiracy nut theory aside, I'm thinking there will be at least one more console generation. No doubt Microsoft and Nintendo have already started engineering, in secret, the next step. And it wouldn't be like them to give up on what money they've already poured into it.

But, ultimately, it seems we are doomed to recede back to PC gaming from whence we came. Personally, I'm looking forward to Halo Wars meeting us there.

Also, it means I'm going to have to get a new computer. And a better internet connection. And a couple grand. And some spare time. And a bagel. And a monkey. And a solid gold elephant statue....

I'm sorry. I lost focus there for a minute. Where was I going with this?

I wouldn't be altogether surprised by consoles ending next generation, once the 360 has caught up with the PS3. I mean, where is there to go from there?

Yay, force everyone to come back to PC gaming so we get everything again!
O wait, we get almost everything anyway, and we get it for $10 less.

People have been predicting this since the 4th generation.

This is like that old tale of Bill Gates saying 'well, I don't there will be a time in the future when we'll ever need 16 whole megabytes of memory!'

I think it's either misquote or made up in fact, but the fact is people like shiny stuff, there's a fair market out there for just that, make new stuff and people will buy it.

There's always going to be improvements, I just believe they'll be smaller and with bigger gaps inbetween, and I hope I'm right, too, I still feel this generation came about 5 years too early, if you look at the quality of God of War II, Okami, Shadow of the Colossus, can you imagine what the Xbox and Ps2 could be pumping out by now, if programmers had been given an extra 5 years to master the hardware.

I still don't think we're close to the peak of the PS3 or 360's capabilities.

Console technology is peaking. Yes we could make them better, but the price would be outragious. who would pay $800 for a Playstation 4 or the next Xbox. i think Red Vs. Blue said it best "Xbox 360? When did i miss Xbox 2 through 359?"

SenseOfTumour:
This is like that old tale of Bill Gates saying 'well, I don't there will be a time in the future when we'll ever need 16 whole megabytes of memory!'

I think it's either misquote or made up in fact, but the fact is people like shiny stuff, there's a fair market out there for just that, make new stuff and people will buy it.

There's always going to be improvements, I just believe they'll be smaller and with bigger gaps inbetween, and I hope I'm right, too, I still feel this generation came about 5 years too early, if you look at the quality of God of War II, Okami, Shadow of the Colossus, can you imagine what the Xbox and Ps2 could be pumping out by now, if programmers had been given an extra 5 years to master the hardware.

I still don't think we're close to the peak of the PS3 or 360's capabilities.

Well, you're half right. The 360 has peaked, but the Ps3 has a tonne of potential left, at least thats what developers on both sides are saying.

I can see Nintendo sticking with the Wii for a while, and the PS3 is just starting to get a strong foothold and still has a lot of potential, but I won't be surprised to hear of a new xbox variation in the future hopefully this time they won't rush to production while the system still has internal flaws like overheating or the ability to scratch disks beyond repair if you accidentally breathe on it while it's running.

Everyone remember that "Nintendo ON" video? That was from the future!!!1!.

Joking aside, Pachter seems to make outlandish claims that usually seem to be true, at least in part, so I really wouldn't be surprised if a better version of the Wii was released, and then that was that for a good 10 years as they perfect projection 3D and VR gaming.

I can see the Ps3 getting a slight upgrade halfway through it's life span, considering it has 10 years it's very likely there will be no Ps4.

I'm afraid I just can't take this guy seriously. The only way there wouldn't be another console generation is for all three big companies to go belly up before then. And even then, some newcomer would step up to the plate and try to make money off the console market. And I really don't see this OnLive thing replacing consoles in the market, it seems a bit too chancy to me.

Indigo_Dingo:

SenseOfTumour:
This is like that old tale of Bill Gates saying 'well, I don't there will be a time in the future when we'll ever need 16 whole megabytes of memory!'

I think it's either misquote or made up in fact, but the fact is people like shiny stuff, there's a fair market out there for just that, make new stuff and people will buy it.

There's always going to be improvements, I just believe they'll be smaller and with bigger gaps inbetween, and I hope I'm right, too, I still feel this generation came about 5 years too early, if you look at the quality of God of War II, Okami, Shadow of the Colossus, can you imagine what the Xbox and Ps2 could be pumping out by now, if programmers had been given an extra 5 years to master the hardware.

I still don't think we're close to the peak of the PS3 or 360's capabilities.

Well, you're half right. The 360 has peaked, but the Ps3 has a tonne of potential left, at least thats what developers on both sides are saying.

>.<

Hardware can't have "potential"

The PS3 is limited by it's 7800 GFX card.

The 360 is limited by it's 6800 GFX card.

The Ps3 has peaked too, just at a higher place than the 360.

He's right.

Not necessarily about the OnLive thing, but as far as this current console generation goes.

Sales of the Wii and PS2 games show that the last generation of graphics are certainly good enough for a sustainable chunk of the market, and the market won't support the additional budgetary costs that going too far beyond the PS3 and 360 would entail. Of course, there's always more development that can be done on the process side of things, but compared to the presentation side, that's dirt cheap.

There will certainly be incremental improvements, bigger hard drives, SSD, manufacturing/integration, clock speeds, memory, but I share his doubt that we'll see any more core architecture changes.

To those who say that this will make PCs into consoles, or vice versa, well, yeah. That started with the availability of the high speed peripheral interconnects, Firewire, ESATA, and USB 2.0, continued with high capacity external storage, >4Gb flash drives, external hard drives, and continued with the convergence of tv and computer video resolutions, and pretty much comes to a head with the presence of industry standard interconnects (USB, Bluetooth, WiFi/LAN) on the various consoles. Broadband is killing the optical disc as a storage and distribution medium, first in the video market, but there's still some life left in the data side of the market. Flash isn't that cheap yet.

Think about what personal computing and gaming looks like in 2016, when your phone sports a terabyte of user available storage.

Sounds interesting.

I think there'll be one more generation, that will let companies set up pure virtual box's. Hardware will probably be nearly identical, and the differences will be competing services. I wonder what this means for publishers like EA who make their money putting games into Brick and Mortars.

Ahh what a load of bullshit, theres going to be at least another generation

Aries_Split:

Indigo_Dingo:

SenseOfTumour:
This is like that old tale of Bill Gates saying 'well, I don't there will be a time in the future when we'll ever need 16 whole megabytes of memory!'

I think it's either misquote or made up in fact, but the fact is people like shiny stuff, there's a fair market out there for just that, make new stuff and people will buy it.

There's always going to be improvements, I just believe they'll be smaller and with bigger gaps inbetween, and I hope I'm right, too, I still feel this generation came about 5 years too early, if you look at the quality of God of War II, Okami, Shadow of the Colossus, can you imagine what the Xbox and Ps2 could be pumping out by now, if programmers had been given an extra 5 years to master the hardware.

I still don't think we're close to the peak of the PS3 or 360's capabilities.

Well, you're half right. The 360 has peaked, but the Ps3 has a tonne of potential left, at least thats what developers on both sides are saying.

>.<

Hardware can't have "potential"

The PS3 is limited by it's 7800 GFX card.

The 360 is limited by it's 6800 GFX card.

The Ps3 has peaked too, just at a higher place than the 360.

QFT, and the majority of people (not you indigo) will then turn around and say "Blu-Ray", i think that ps3 simply has more time before people realise that the oasis will always be a mirage(sp?).

Keane Ng:
David Cole of DFC Intelligence thinks that by 2012, the PS3 will be king of the software sales hill and Nintendo and Microsoft will be forced to put on new consoles.

kinda funny since the PS3 is really quite over-rated and has been doing worse than the PS2 in terms of sales. this is clearly the last thing for Sony, but Microsoft's Xbox 360 is still doing far better than their original console the Xbox. this could lead to Microsoft deciding to make a another Xbox just because they got cocky.

Ugh, analysts...

Anyway, the claim of PS3 sales dominance is so ridiculous that guy should get fired. Multiplatform games tend to sell significantly worse on the PS3, how's that going to be sales dominance?

Skizle:
Console technology is peaking. Yes we could make them better, but the price would be outragious. who would pay $800 for a Playstation 4 or the next Xbox. i think Red Vs. Blue said it best "Xbox 360? When did i miss Xbox 2 through 359?"

That's if improvement only means better graphics. Look at what the Wii did, went off in a completely unexpected direction because graphics are becoming too expensive to push while not bringing any gain.

Please. Both the 360 and the PS3 may be able to reach 1080p under certain circumstances, such as total galactic planetary alignment, but a search I just conducted confirmed what I was already pretty sure of: most games for either system simply cannot hit that resolution. There will be another generation, probably with Nvidia 8800/9800 equivalent cards installed, which will hit 1080p consistently. Sure enough, sooner or later, a new standard in video will hit the market, maybe Ultra Hi Def and it's audio counterpart, 22.2. Games will take longer to make, developers will complain, systems will cost more, but they will come out nonetheless, and people will buy.

Meanwhile, Nintendo will be off doing something else, because that's what they do best.

Ollie596:
Ahh what a load of bullshit, theres going to be at least another generation

Simply put, what Ollie said.

----

Also, the whole talk of "graphics" and what not...

Processing power? Sure, more action on the screen with less lag, faster loading/rendering, that I can go for, but graphics?

Let's remember our roots, people. We were lucky if what we could tell what it was we were looking at, let alone being able to distinguish it from the background. True, graphics have their uses, but graphics shouldn't be the only damn selling point.

Disclaimer: While the poster does believe that graphics alone don't make a game, he does encourage the creative use of graphics, such as Okami, JetSetRadioFuture and other titles.

I don't see this happening. If the whole world had blazing fast internet access, maybe. But since it doesn't, and won't anytime soon, On-Live will not replace consoles or prevent another console generation. A unified console may indeed happen in the future. However, hardware advances at such a fast pace that even a unified console would have generations. People were saying that there wasn't much room left for improvement in the graphics department back in the N64 days. Simply put, we haven't reached the level in actual gameplay where you literally cannot visually tell that you're playing a game. Until we do, there is always room for improvement, and there will be new console generations.

Well this is really inevitable, the console/pc margin is become so obscured. Consoles are running on video cards and intel chips. What it comes down to is if its worth it to buy a computer u cant upgrade ie a console system. I know they attempted to curve that trend by trying to make it much more than just a console for games, by encompassing movies, music, etc but its nothing a PC hasnt been able to do.

Until developers come up on the other side of the uncanny valley, real-time, you'll still see graphics improvement happening.

That said:

KDR_11k:
That's if improvement only means better graphics. Look at what the Wii did, went off in a completely unexpected direction because graphics are becoming too expensive to push while not bringing any gain.

This.

Patcher is simply a non-visionary. Somebody should tell him to pick up a copy of Total Recall and watch the scene where Arnie's wife is playing tennis. Technophiles are already getting used to the idea of having to wire things up all around the room -- they picked it up from the audiophiles. Now imagine a console where your 7.1 sound system was also a sensor system?

Balderdash. New technology shall continue to come into existence and become cheaper so hardware companies shall continue to make new systems, if the universe doesn't end for awhile.

I think this guy is just getting cocky about OnLive. I don't think he's actually thought about the people who don't have an internet connection, is he just going to screw them over?

I'm also sure Moore's law is still going to be in effect for quite some time still

I gave this matter some consideration for a while, but you see, I'd already realised something. Cloud computing is over-rated. You see, this reminds me a lot of time-sharing, which became obsolete in the early 1990s. Why? Because people finally got powerful personal computers, which made the mini-computers of the previous decade look atrociously bad. Now that we have computers under our desks that could put 1990s supercomputers to shame, I don't think there's going to be any desire to go back to being tethered to the network.

Indigo_Dingo:
People have been predicting this since the 4th generation.

Hah! HAHAHAHHAHAahahhahaah!! Try the second, I remember when people were saying that the Nintendo entertainment system was going to be as far as it got.

Danzorz:

Indigo_Dingo:
People have been predicting this since the 4th generation.

Hah! HAHAHAHHAHAahahhahaah!! Try the second, I remember when people were saying that the Nintendo entertainment system was going to be as far as it got.

Well if ur birthday on here stands correct, u were born when snes was being release world wide...how does that work?

I can see his point consoles are getting more expensive/longer to build and create content for without being able to create new customers (Wii aside)
At over 100 million sold sony has had kept roughly 25% of its PS2 fanbase with the PS3

Aries_Split:

Hardware can't have "potential"

The PS3 is limited by it's 7800 GFX card.

The 360 is limited by it's 6800 GFX card.

The Ps3 has peaked too, just at a higher place than the 360.

The thing that keeps a console alive for so long is the game developers learning to use the code in new and interesting ways. When a new console comes out, they don't have to worry about optimizing code as much because the release games are obviously going to look better than the previous generation. When it comes to pushing every ounce of processing power out of a console, the developers will find ways of coding things to achieve the outcome (or at least close to it). This is a pretty obvious observation if you will look at the release games compared to the games released at the end of a console's life.

The Playstation 2 is a great example of this. They pushed that thing to the limits with God of War 2. I feel like the Xbox didn't get to do that; they pushed out the 360 early to beat Sony to the punch - and while it worked, I believe the original Xbox never lived up to its full potential.

To say there won't be another console? That's just crazy talk. Obviously, when technology becomes cheaper and smaller, one of the game companies will work on developing and releasing a console that takes gaming to an unbelievable new level (or at the least, one step up - lol). When that happens, rival companies will look at putting out a new console to compete. If Sony was the only one to release a next generation console, and Nintendo and MS stayed with the current generation (now, let's say this happens in ~ 6 years) - obviously, the Sony console is going to be amazing (hopefully, unless they really screw it up). Even if it is more expensive, the price will eventually drop after a few years and gamers will be buying this system - ESPECIALLY if it is the ONLY gaming system available! If MS and Big N have no plans to release a new console, there's no competition. I don't see that happening in the next 20 years unless a company goes stupid (SEGA) with their console release(s).

There would be so many good and bad things about a "1-Console-Gaming" world; Everyone would be able to enjoy the games that would ordinarily be on a different system - However, there would be no large changes in gaming due to no competition and no need to change things up.

Let's face it - Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft have all revolutionized gameplay in their own way. I use these 3 as an example, because while other companies have had great ideas (SEGA), they've also had some terrible horrible ones (SEGA!). Hard drives, CD, DVD, Blu-ray, motion control, online gaming, downloading games...

Ok, I'll stop the rant. That's my 35 cents on the subject.

:D

Zeeky_Santos:

Keane Ng:
David Cole of DFC Intelligence thinks that by 2012, the PS3 will be king of the software sales hill and Nintendo and Microsoft will be forced to put on new consoles.

kinda funny since the PS3 is really quite over-rated and has been doing worse than the PS2 in terms of sales. this is clearly the last thing for Sony, but Microsoft's Xbox 360 is still doing far better than their original console the Xbox. this could lead to Microsoft deciding to make a another Xbox just because they got cocky.

Ps3 isn't doing as well as teh ps2, but for the time it's been out, its outsold the 360 by almost 4 million units. Hardly the last thing from sony, I think.

Danzorz:

Indigo_Dingo:
People have been predicting this since the 4th generation.

Hah! HAHAHAHHAHAahahhahaah!! Try the second, I remember when people were saying that the Nintendo entertainment system was going to be as far as it got.

Dude, I'm 19, how the hell would I know what it was like back then? I'm just saying, as long as I have been a gamer, there have been many people who felt a new generation would never happen, and should not happen.

Edit: and you're 16, how the hell would you know?

Oh, and FYI? The NES was third generation, not 2nd. Many people disagree about whether the Atari 2600 was first or second generation.

I think Pachter is kind of right. What would you need more powerful consoles for? Hell, the PC sure didn't need a new generation of video hardware every 6 or 12 months, quite to the contrary. If developers get the chance to stick to the hardware they're getting, I think they can make marvelous things out of it - after all, that's one of the things consoles are about.
Also, I don't think graphics have seen much of a significant development in the last few years, which to my memory is a first in gaming history. New hardware just hardly can add anything substantial to what's already there, and people are starting to notice. That's why you can't sell a XBox Space Age or a Playstation 4, because no one would spend hundreds of dollars on a piece of hardware that only delivers marginal improvements.

And please notice that Pachter's not saying people will throw away their current-gen consoles and go for PC again, that's probably not going to happen. What he's saying is that the current-gen consoles are going to stick around with marginal hardware changes, and devs will continue to make games for these platforms. And if you ask me, that would be a good thing.

xmetatr0nx:

Danzorz:

Indigo_Dingo:
People have been predicting this since the 4th generation.

Hah! HAHAHAHHAHAahahhahaah!! Try the second, I remember when people were saying that the Nintendo entertainment system was going to be as far as it got.

Well if ur birthday on here stands correct, u were born when snes was being release world wide...how does that work?

True or False, "I have a 22 year old brother who is into games more than me"
Well?
True or False?

Indigo_Dingo:

Danzorz:

Indigo_Dingo:
People have been predicting this since the 4th generation.

Hah! HAHAHAHHAHAahahhahaah!! Try the second, I remember when people were saying that the Nintendo entertainment system was going to be as far as it got.

Dude, I'm 19, how the hell would I know what it was like back then? I'm just saying, as long as I have been a gamer, there have been many people who felt a new generation would never happen, and should not happen.

Edit: and you're 16, how the hell would you know?

Oh, and FYI? The NES was third generation, not 2nd. Many people disagree about whether the Atari 2600 was first or second generation.

NES was 3rd gen? Dam...

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