Analyst Calls It: Nintendo Wins the Console War

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Analyst Calls It: Nintendo Wins the Console War

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There's still a lot of life left in the current generation of consoles but industry analyst Jesse Divnich says nothing short of Ragnarok is going to keep Nintendo from coming out on top this time around.

For awhile, the Wii looked unstoppable. Nintendo's console mercilessly pounded the crap out of its Sony and Microsoft counterparts and there were even whispered suggestions from some corners that Sony would be better off washing its hands of the PlayStation 3 and gearing up for the next generation instead. But sales of the Wii have slowed dramatically this year, while the Xbox 360 remains healthy and the PlayStation 3 is finally starting to find its legs. With the current console generation expected to last through 2013, is it possible that the this round of the console wars could have a surprise, come-from-behind winner?

Well, no. At least not according to EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich, who says that even in a worst-case scenario for Nintendo and best-case scenario for everyone else, the Wii has simply built up too much of a lead to overcome. "For the Wii, let us assume a 25% decline in sales next year; followed by two years of 30% declines, and a 50% decline in 2013," he said in a report on IndustryGamers. "For the Xbox 360, we'll assume a 10% increase through 2012, and a 30% decline in 2013. For the PlayStation 3, a 25% increase next year, followed by two years of 10% increases and a 30% decline in 2013."

"This is, of course, a worst-case scenario and highly unlikely to occur since the combined sum of hardware sold is nearly 60% more than that of the sixth generation consoles, but Wii sales will only be at par with PS2 sales (in this worst-case scenario)," he continued. "However, even if this scenario were to occur, the Wii would still come out the winner, with some room to breathe."

Divnich acknowledged that there are "complications" involved in his prediction, including the unlikely assumption that Nintendo is going to make no moves on the hardware front between now and 2013, and that Sony's plan to support the PS3 through 2016 could give it a substantial boost in sales numbers, "very similar to the late success the PS2 had by being able to offer consumers an incredibly cheap video game system/DVD player."

Nonetheless, the real battle now is for second place and despite the "generous lead" held by the Xbox 360, Divnich believes it could turn into a genuine horse race. "The $299 price cut on the PS3 has clearly shifted momentum into Sony's favor," he said. "Is it enough to change Sony's current ranking or could Sony's ten-year support of the PS3 push its installed base ahead of the Xbox 360 in the long-term? Unfortunately, we will need another year of hard data before a comfortable projection can be made, but I am sure until then the heated debates will continue."

Permalink

While doing my best not to be disrespectful.
Who really gives a shit about the console wars?
The console wars were created by the fanboys for the pain and torture of those who play games so they can have fun. The console wars just add a trench, or a Berlin Wall of sorts between the common people of gaming.

Anywho, back on topic:

despite the "generous lead" held by the Xbox 360, Divnich believes it could turn into a genuine horse race. "The $299 price cut on the PS3 has clearly shifted momentum into Sony's favor," he said. "Is it enough to change Sony's current ranking or could Sony's ten-year support of the PS3 push its installed base ahead of the Xbox 360 in the long-term?

You know since a good portion of people already own 360's, I can see them going out to Best Buy and picking up a PS3 because its so low priced right now.

It'll be interesting to see who comes out in second, but hey I'll see you on the MW2 battlefield. Just pray you're not on the other side of my scope.
>:D

Its not news Wii is the most profitable console, however ask how many people own a Wii through their own will and consistently believe it to be their favourite.You WILL hear otherwise.

Apparently Captain Obvious has got a job as an industry analyst.

xXGINGERGNOMEXx:
Its not news Wii is the most profitable console, however ask how many people own a Wii through their own will and consistently believe it to be their favourite.You WILL hear otherwise.

I agree with this. If the only marker for winning a console war is who sells the most, then yes, the Wii wins. Quality should also be relevant though, and if that were the case, I see the Wii starting to fall behind the other systems. I'd personally say at this point its still a 3 way race for first in this generation.

What?! The sky is falling!!! The sea is turning red!!! Run for your lives!!! An analyst admits that the Wii will win but is not doomed! Unbelievable!

Geo Da Sponge:
Apparently Captain Obvious has got a job as an industry analyst.

Well it's better to be Captain Obvious Analyst than Michael "KingofIdiots" Pachter.

Rathy:

xXGINGERGNOMEXx:
Its not news Wii is the most profitable console, however ask how many people own a Wii through their own will and consistently believe it to be their favourite.You WILL hear otherwise.

I agree with this. If the only marker for winning a console war is who sells the most, then yes, the Wii wins. Quality should also be relevant though, and if that were the case, I see the Wii starting to fall behind the other systems. I'd personally say at this point its still a 3 way race for first in this generation.

Though quality can be interpreted differently.
If its the Wii's game quality then yes things like graphics will cause it to loose a little and it does have a lot of "money games" but the Wii still has a large amount of Quality games, Game-play wise, and Enjoyability wise.
The 360 does as well but it dosent have the amount of family games that a lot of people are starting to look for.
And if you mean Quality as in life span, mine has fallen off its perch, been dropped., and pulled down numerous times and still works like the day we got it. :)

Good for Nintendo. Now hopefully they take all that influence/revenue from the Wii and use it to actually try to COMPETE with the other hardware manufacturers during the next console generation.

I'll respectfully disagree with that analysis--2008 and 2009 were the years for the Wii, but with both the nice shiny new price drop in the PS3 and the improved, smaller, stronger PS3 Slim, and with no real relevant change in the 360, I see the PS3 taking market in 2010. High definition has definitely caused a market resurgence, and of the three, PS3 has the best to offer--and that's not even mentioning the cheap Blu-Ray Player that comes within. It was the same way with the PS2, that part of its use was that it was versatile. The Wii is there for entertainment, and very few people think of their Xbox when they want to watch a movie--but there is quite a large group of people who don't have a dvd player, but have a perfectly functional PS2/PS3. The Xbox will continue to stay strong, but without an impressive innovation, they will continue to ride the middle. And while I seriously doubt Nintendo will be content to just sit back and watch Sony ride the wave, it won't be in 2010 that they can do anything about it. Playstation has pushed themselves forward, redesigning the console, making it smaller and more powerful, while the little white cube's innovation is that it might now come in the special black, and Microsoft's astounding innovation was to mimic the price drop without increasing the potential that the Slim now provides. And while it's too late in 2009 for anyone but the Wii, I very easily see the PS3 taking market next year.

Nintendo does something that they are known for. MILKING, FKIN MILKING.

Gigaguy64:

Rathy:

xXGINGERGNOMEXx:
Its not news Wii is the most profitable console, however ask how many people own a Wii through their own will and consistently believe it to be their favourite.You WILL hear otherwise.

I agree with this. If the only marker for winning a console war is who sells the most, then yes, the Wii wins. Quality should also be relevant though, and if that were the case, I see the Wii starting to fall behind the other systems. I'd personally say at this point its still a 3 way race for first in this generation.

Though quality can be interpreted differently.
If its the Wii's game quality then yes things like graphics will cause it to loose a little and it does have a lot of "money games" but the Wii still has a large amount of Quality games, Game-play wise, and Enjoyability wise.
The 360 does as well but it dosent have the amount of family games that a lot of people are starting to look for.
And if you mean Quality as in life span, mine has fallen off its perch, been dropped., and pulled down numerous times and still works like the day we got it. :)

Of course it has quality games, or it wouldn't be in the race. My issue is that its quality games are easily rivaled by the other systems in the end, but at the same time the other consoles quality games tend to outsell the Wii's quality games. Hence why its still a 3 way race to me, not the Wii a clear winner.

And by quality I mean good games in general, being the ones that sell well and 'tend' to review favorably.

Thanks goes out to my mum and little brother for beating my console of choice with a decent selection of games and good controls while there's doesn't

Just goes to show quality means squat

Geo Da Sponge:
Apparently Captain Obvious has got a job as an industry analyst.

My thoughts exactly.

Anyway, to agree with alot of people here, we shouldn't give a crap about the console wars. This guy is just trying to get attention by stating the obvious. But then again, all analysts are douches, so I'm not surprised.

BehattedWanderer:
I'll respectfully disagree with that analysis--2008 and 2009 were the years for the Wii, but with both the nice shiny new price drop in the PS3 and the improved, smaller, stronger PS3 Slim, and with no real relevant change in the 360, I see the PS3 taking market in 2010. High definition has definitely caused a market resurgence, and of the three, PS3 has the best to offer--and that's not even mentioning the cheap Blu-Ray Player that comes within. It was the same way with the PS2, that part of its use was that it was versatile. The Wii is there for entertainment, and very few people think of their Xbox when they want to watch a movie--but there is quite a large group of people who don't have a dvd player, but have a perfectly functional PS2/PS3. The Xbox will continue to stay strong, but without an impressive innovation, they will continue to ride the middle. And while I seriously doubt Nintendo will be content to just sit back and watch Sony ride the wave, it won't be in 2010 that they can do anything about it. Playstation has pushed themselves forward, redesigning the console, making it smaller and more powerful, while the little white cube's innovation is that it might now come in the special black, and Microsoft's astounding innovation was to mimic the price drop without increasing the potential that the Slim now provides. And while it's too late in 2009 for anyone but the Wii, I very easily see the PS3 taking market next year.

I also see this happening in the future. Seems like pretty solid logic.

But I'm praying people will forget this whole motion control nonsense. It's not gaming. It's a distraction. Nothing more.

...console sales don't count, as far as i'm concerned, given thing like the bit where I haven't bought a wii game in a very long time, and that our 2nd gen 360 is broken after warranty, meaning my family is apparently picking up another one.
Wii is a novel concept, but its also just that- a novelty.

ive a xbox 360 plus a good amount of games and now its time to buy a ps3 but i will never buy the wii for the simple fact that its a last gen system with a novelty device tacked on

I still don't have one, so they've lost as far as I'm concerned.

Nintendo's main purpose is to make money, not make good games. They've made the most money and therefore have won. This is how much I care about conoles.

On another note, I just opened a pack of M&Ms and more than half of them are yellow.

I figured the wii was gonna be the winner, cheaper seems better these days especially with nintendo's target market... everybody and their grandma.

I did not know Sony would be supporting the ps3 until 2016, that is a godsend for me. By then i should have money to spend freely... if my really old ps3 is still working then.

xXGINGERGNOMEXx:
Its not news Wii is the most profitable console, however ask how many people own a Wii through their own will and consistently believe it to be their favourite.You WILL hear otherwise.

It's my main console. And my favourite console.

And really I don't think people should care. However since I'm here, PS3 IMO will come second since it will get cheaper, as it's offering more for less. I think the Wii is too much of a popular brand now for Natal to make a huge difference.

And lol at Wii bashing. It's like you have to be paid to be civil nowadays.

dmase:
I figured the wii was gonna be the winner, cheaper seems better these days especially with nintendo's target market... everybody and their grandma.

I did not know Sony would be supporting the ps3 until 2016, that is a godsend for me. By then i should have money to spend freely... if my really old ps3 is still working then.

One decade is how their consoles are always supported. It was like that for the PS1, PS2 and now the PS3.

Ah, analysts, those guys with "anal" in their name. They will never get old.

Really? I haven't touched my brothers wii in months, and neither has he since he got his xbox... infact i don't think any of my wii playing friends have played the wii seriously since they got xboxes... i heartily disagree with this statement.

Rathy:

Gigaguy64:

Rathy:

xXGINGERGNOMEXx:
Its not news Wii is the most profitable console, however ask how many people own a Wii through their own will and consistently believe it to be their favourite.You WILL hear otherwise.

I agree with this. If the only marker for winning a console war is who sells the most, then yes, the Wii wins. Quality should also be relevant though, and if that were the case, I see the Wii starting to fall behind the other systems. I'd personally say at this point its still a 3 way race for first in this generation.

Though quality can be interpreted differently.
If its the Wii's game quality then yes things like graphics will cause it to loose a little and it does have a lot of "money games" but the Wii still has a large amount of Quality games, Game-play wise, and Enjoyability wise.
The 360 does as well but it dosent have the amount of family games that a lot of people are starting to look for.
And if you mean Quality as in life span, mine has fallen off its perch, been dropped., and pulled down numerous times and still works like the day we got it. :)

Of course it has quality games, or it wouldn't be in the race. My issue is that its quality games are easily rivaled by the other systems in the end, but at the same time the other consoles quality games tend to outsell the Wii's quality games. Hence why its still a 3 way race to me, not the Wii a clear winner.

And by quality I mean good games in general, being the ones that sell well and 'tend' to review favorably.

Thats true.
And i see what you are saying, i was just a little confused.
And i actually do agree with you to a point.

Frank_Sinatra_:
The console wars were created by the fanboys for the pain and torture of those who play games so they can have fun.

Have to point out your mistake here. The console wars were started by Sega ("Genesis does what Nintendon't!") in the early 90s for marketing purposes. This divided gamers into Nintendo and Sega camps, and fans have run with the idea of a divided marketplace ever since, rather than just accepting that we're all gamers. Much as I love Sega, this mess is all their bloody fault.

I don't think it's such a lay down misere yet. Wii sales are steadily on the decline, the PS3 is finally kicking into top gear and the 360 still has Natal looming as a dark horse. Anything can happen; this generation still has a long way to go.

Geo Da Sponge:
Apparently Captain Obvious has got a job as an industry analyst.

Too true...

Frank_Sinatra_:
While doing my best not to be disrespectful.
Who really gives a shit about the console wars?
The console wars were created by the fanboys for the pain and torture of those who play games so they can have fun. The console wars just add a trench, or a Berlin Wall of sorts between the common people of gaming.

People who work for Nintendo, Microsoft, and Sony, I guess ;) mind you, now every Nintendo employee can afford their own cruise liner, I doubt they are too concerned at present.

Frank_Sinatra_:
While doing my best not to be disrespectful.
Who really gives a shit about the console wars?
The console wars were created by the fanboys for the pain and torture of those who play games so they can have fun. The console wars just add a trench, or a Berlin Wall of sorts between the common people of gaming.

For the consumers like you and I, yes they are pointless where we should all be happy and enjoy our passion.

However the consoles wars are real for investors.

I wonder how much they pay this guy

Funny for a war they all seem to get along nicely on the same shelf in my room

xXGINGERGNOMEXx:
Its not news Wii is the most profitable console, however ask how many people own a Wii through their own will and consistently believe it to be their favourite.You WILL hear otherwise.

Yeah, very true. I own a wii, had one for 2 years, only have 2 games for it. Almost everyone I know who bought a wii never plays it and have since bought/plan on buying a different console. Nintendo probably will lose most of its actual gamer demographic next generation. I know I sure as hell won't be buying the next nintendo console.

To be honest, I don't care which console 'wins' just as long as I enjoy the games that are released for them. I play the Wii mainly for my most favourite games, the most milked franchises ever (but I don't care, I enjoy them). I play the 360 mainly for FPSs and Guitar Hero/Rock Band, and I play the PS3 for...um...something. I think the last game I played on it was either Final Fantasy 7, Metal Gear Solid 1 or Crash Bandicoot 3.

I have to admit though, I am a bit biased towards Nintendo, as they are my favourite gaming company (some people might scoff at that last statement that they are a gaming company, but I still regard them as one) and call me a sucker for punishment, but I will be sticking by them whatever happens.

there is no f***ing way the wii won the console wars really i thought that it epic failed

Well, it's a war not worth winning.
As has been said, most of the people who own the Wii will consistently say it is not their favorite console. I know that I, for one, will never buy anything Nintendo again.

Honestly, i dont see where the wii can go from here, next gen i mean. How do you follow up to this completely new style with the wii remotes and crap. uhg, that rapid of change scares me, but its not in my territory anyways. * pets xbox 360*

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