Analyst Finds New IPs up 106% From 2007

Analyst Finds New IPs up 106% From 2007

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It looks like gamers' complaints that we weren't getting anything new have paid off: There were 106% more new IPs released in 2009 than in 2007 - but how many of them were successful?

Around the launch of the new console generation, it seemed as though gamers were getting fed up of having nothing but sequel after sequel shoved down their throats: Madden, Halo, Mario, Final Fantasy, so on and so forth - and in response, publishers like EA promised to support new Intellectual Properties moving forward. As it turns out, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich says that the publishers kept their promise, surprisingly enough.

In 2006, only 16% of the total market share belonged to new IPs; in 2009 that number had gone up to 22%. While that doesn't sound all that impressive an increase just looking at the simple percentage, looking at the hard numbers gives us a decidedly different view: There were 61 new properties introduced in 2007, and 126 introduced in 2009 - a 106% increase in the release of new IPs.

However, Divnich says that many (if not most) new intellectual properties fail to meet expectations - of the 126 new IPs released on consoles in 2009, only 7 were certifiable "hits," and it will take a sequel to grow the brand into a blockbuster franchise, he claims. Nor are sales the only measure of quality - in 2009, there were 9 titles that scored over a 90% on review aggregate sites like Metacritic, and none of them were new IPs (there was only one in 2008, and that was LittleBigPlanet).

If a publisher launch four new IPs, only one will succeed, says Divnich, whereas the other three will fail and be wastes of money under the current model - and then the executives will move to quickly exploit as much money from the new franchise as possible. This leads to burnout and exhaustion from fans, explains the EEDAR analyst, whereas an ultimately more profitable method (and one that engenders brand loyalty) is a slow cultivation - Divnich points to Blizzard as an example of what careful, almost agricultural tending of a brand can do for a company.

"The opposite of this strategy is best reserved for nomadic Barbarians; when they come across a rich land, they drain its resources, pack up, and begin to forage for new resources. Rinse and Repeat. Sound familiar? I am no anthropologist, but I am pretty sure farming beat out the hunting-gathering strategy centuries ago."

(Via VG247)

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This is actually quite true with IPs. Which makes me think of how the new IPs of 2010 will be looked upon this year. We already started it off with Bayonetta and Darksiders, with Dark Void being released yesterday. And the first two have already got mixed reviews, Dark Void is still up in the air for me.

All I can think is that this year will be a rather intriguing time for new and sequel games.

John Funk:
"The opposite of this strategy is best reserved for nomadic Barbarians; when they come across a rich land, they drain its resources, pack up, and begin to forage for new resources. Rinse and Repeat. Sound familiar? I am no anthropologist, but I am pretty sure farming beat out the hunting-gathering strategy centuries ago."

Barbarian raids weren't exactly 'Hunter Gatherer'. In most Hunter Gatherer societies resource consumption and population were incredibly important and pretty strictly managed. The Barbarians I would say were nomads, but not exactly Hunter Gatherer societies.

of the 126 new IPs released on consoles in 2007

I think this is a typo. I think you meant 2009, judging from the figures in the previous paragraph.

It's nice to see that new IPs are really getting the money flowing. Unfortunately, as Divnich said, publishers are going to milk that for all it's worth to keep money flowing. In the case of Square(soft)-Enix, they've been doing it for about 20 years.

Now onto 2010, where the we will have just as many sequels as every other year. Yippee hooray!

This is mostly interesting becuase 106 is my lucky number. But it seems to me that a successful ip will make up for three failed ones.

John Funk:
However, Divnich says that many (if not most) new intellectual properties fail to meet expectations - of the 126 new IPs released on consoles in 2007, only 7 were certifiable "hits,"

You've made a mistake here. You either mean, "of the 126 new IPs released on consoles in 2009, only 7 were certifiable hits," or, "of the 61 new IPs released on consoles in 2007, only 7 were certifiable hits."

On topic, despite this I think creativity has gone down. There's a lot more pressure to release big sellers now so companies are desperately trying to rip off other companies hits.

LordOfInsanity:
We already started it off with Bayonetta and Darksiders, with Dark Void being released yesterday. And the first two have already got mixed reviews, Dark Void is still up in the air for me.

By mixed I hope you mean almost entirely positive because that's the reviews those first two got. In fact we already have a 90 percent or more new IP on metacritic, Bayonetta, which means we're already tied with 2008 in this respect.

how can you have 6% of a new ip that's just silly.

Really? Didnt feel that ways at alll...

Well, I suppose we have had a few successful ones. The ones that were really bid did hit it off large, like Borderlands, and Bayonetta

Well thats sweet, hopefully we see some more new and interesting games.

Jaredin:
Really? Didnt feel that ways at alll...

Well, I suppose we have had a few successful ones. The ones that were really bid did hit it off large, like Borderlands, and Bayonetta

Thats because the sequels were hyped more.

But how many of them were shovelware games or involved space marines? How many just copied gameplay from their more popular cousins?

 

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