Analyst Puts Affordable Price on Project Natal

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Analyst Puts Affordable Price on Project Natal

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Adding Natal's revolutionary form of control to your Xbox 360 might not be that expensive at all.

Videogame industry analyst Michael Pachter has predicted that Microsoft's future release-date price for Project Natal will be a very affordable $50. He made the prediction while speaking on GameTrailers' latest episode of Pach-Attack, a series where he answers questions about the industry. This price would contrast with Nintendo's rumored view that something like Natal couldn't be distributed at a cost-effective rate.

After answering the question of what 2010's best-selling game will likely be, and not surprisingly naming Halo: Reach, Pachter covered his justification for Natal's presumably low price point. Even though he admits that "nobody knows" what Microsoft is going to do, and despite the high prices of Xbox 360 peripherals like the network adapter and hard drive, Natal will probably be sold at, or even below, cost.

Rumors put Natal's cost anywhere from two cents to ten-billion dollars, though Pachter finds it "hard to envision" a $150 price point for Natal because essentially it's just software and a three lens camera, despite all of the cool stuff it can do. "My guess is it's about $50 in cost," he says, and went on to say he'd be "very surprised if it's more than $79."

He further justifies his prediction by saying: "Microsoft is not trying to make money on the device, they're trying to get everybody to have the device so that they can sell us other things and to eventually sell a lot more Xbox 360s." The business model he names for Natal is just like that typically used for videogame hardware, where a loss is often taken to get it out there to make money off of software sales instead. Based on how evil Microsoft is (that is a joke), I was expecting Natal to cost around $100 just because Microsoft probably knows that everybody will buy it based on hype alone. If it really ends up at $50, that would be much more agreeable to my wallet.

Source: GameTrailers

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Not bad, im still waiting for a firm price to be announced.

Its an improvement on the 120 Ive heard floating around the internet.

Whatever it is, it's too much. Though that isn't a bad price at all, still wouldn't want to blow my money on a motion sensor for gimmick games.

I think he's definitely not off-base in his assumption. I concur with his final assessment, although a final price will definitely come later.

If its less then $79, I see no harm in picking it up then.

Well, if it really is going to just be $50, then it's worth checking it out. I'm not that excited about it, but it could be interesting.

Ah well, if it's that cheap, I'll have to make sure to buy one. I'm not all that interested in motion control, however, and since my Xbox runs off a 12-inch monitor on my desk, Natal may be a bit hard to use. But if it's cheaper than your average game, then sure, I'll buy it.

Yay?
I honestly will never touch the thing

For $50 I'd get one, I don't see why they don't bundle it with some mini games like wii play and the wiimote and do it for game price.

I was gonna pick it up regardless, but a lower price is always a good thing. No doubt they're gonna sell bundles with 360s including the Natal, or games with it.

" The business model he names for Natal is just like that typically used for videogame hardware, where a loss is often taken to get it out there to make money off of software sales instead."

Indeed. No console ever made money itself off the bat, and why do this differently with Natal?
It's in MS own best interest to make sure everyone gets it.
And I'm not gonna pay a ton for it, for one...

Not bad, but not good. The majority of people are not going to buy it and it will be another failed experiment with a gimmicky tool. Of course, I could be wrong and it might just take the gaming world by storm, but I'm just sticking with negativity here and I'm not going to buy it. I just don't see this going anywhere.

I'll wait and see how it actually might benefit gaming before I pick it up, but at $50... that's almost an impulse buy.

But remember, this is not Microsoft's word on it, so expect it to go up.

For me, I predicted it to be $70. $50 to software and $20 for the webcam.

Does it have achievements implemented? If so, I'll buy two.

At $50 I might be convinced to pick it up, but only if it bundles with some nice little minigames and I receive a high salary for once.
Not too keen on the thing yet, I'll admit, though an affordable price helps.

Still don't think I'm sold. I just don't like motion control and I refuse to buy any game that requires it.

It doesn't matter how much it will cost, if you are even slightly against motion control coming to the Xbox you shouldn't buy one. Just because it's cheap doesn't make it an agreeable price. You buy one you're allowing them to make the kind of game that uses such an unwanted device.

*Checks currency converter*
Huh, AU$55.5. Well, accounting for the fact that it's Australia, that brings the price to about AU$90, I'd expect. Still, that's not such a bad price (relatively speaking). If they make a game for the Natal that actually looks worthwhile getting, I might even consider getting it. Better yet, I'll just import it. It'd have to look pretty damn awesome though...

im still not going to buy it lol hell if they paid ME i still wouldnt purchase it.

Nerf Ninja:
It doesn't matter how much it will cost, if you are even slightly against motion control coming to the Xbox you shouldn't buy one. Just because it's cheap doesn't make it an agreeable price. You buy one you're allowing them to make the kind of game that uses such an unwanted device.

Which part of your post explains to me why you are forced to buy motion-sensor controlled games if Natal is successful?

Gladion:

Nerf Ninja:
It doesn't matter how much it will cost, if you are even slightly against motion control coming to the Xbox you shouldn't buy one. Just because it's cheap doesn't make it an agreeable price. You buy one you're allowing them to make the kind of game that uses such an unwanted device.

Which part of your post explains to me why you are forced to buy motion-sensor controlled games if Natal is successful?

Who said anything about being forced to buy one? I said if you buy one you're allowing them to make the kind of games that use the natal. Actually, why would you buy one and then not buy the games for it?

My point was that if you disagree with it don't support it just because it's cheap.

I thought it was going to cost at least 200. I actually am interested in this whole Natal nonsense and it would be nice if it cost less than a rockband set.

Nerf Ninja:

Gladion:

Nerf Ninja:
It doesn't matter how much it will cost, if you are even slightly against motion control coming to the Xbox you shouldn't buy one. Just because it's cheap doesn't make it an agreeable price. You buy one you're allowing them to make the kind of game that uses such an unwanted device.

Which part of your post explains to me why you are forced to buy motion-sensor controlled games if Natal is successful?

Who said anything about being forced to buy one? I said if you buy one you're allowing them to make the kind of games that use the natal. Actually, why would you buy one and then not buy the games for it?

My point was that if you disagree with it don't support it just because it's cheap.

Because as we all know, you can totally have an accurate and unbiased opinion of something without even trying it.
Not to mention if you don't like it then it shouldn't exist, regardless of what other people think.

Well at $50 that may be bout 30 here so yeah I'd pay for it lol.

Ghonzor:
Yay?
I honestly will never touch the thing

Did you buy Rock Band or Guitar Hero?

If you said yes and you own a 360, you'll probably buy the Natal.

On Topic: Seeing as the regular controller costs US$50, making Natal around the same price is a good bet. The highest piece of hardware for the 360 right now is the WiFi Antenna and that is a solid $100 despite the compaints it gets.

Nerf Ninja:

Gladion:

Nerf Ninja:
It doesn't matter how much it will cost, if you are even slightly against motion control coming to the Xbox you shouldn't buy one. Just because it's cheap doesn't make it an agreeable price. You buy one you're allowing them to make the kind of game that uses such an unwanted device.

Which part of your post explains to me why you are forced to buy motion-sensor controlled games if Natal is successful?

Who said anything about being forced to buy one? I said if you buy one you're allowing them to make the kind of games that use the natal. Actually, why would you buy one and then not buy the games for it?

My point was that if you disagree with it don't support it just because it's cheap.

My bad, excuse me. I completely misunderstood you. :S Sorr-ey

fletch_talon:

Nerf Ninja:

Gladion:

Nerf Ninja:
It doesn't matter how much it will cost, if you are even slightly against motion control coming to the Xbox you shouldn't buy one. Just because it's cheap doesn't make it an agreeable price. You buy one you're allowing them to make the kind of game that uses such an unwanted device.

Which part of your post explains to me why you are forced to buy motion-sensor controlled games if Natal is successful?

Who said anything about being forced to buy one? I said if you buy one you're allowing them to make the kind of games that use the natal. Actually, why would you buy one and then not buy the games for it?

My point was that if you disagree with it don't support it just because it's cheap.

Because as we all know, you can totally have an accurate and unbiased opinion of something without even trying it.
Not to mention if you don't like it then it shouldn't exist, regardless of what other people think.

Did you read my post or just react to it?

Did I say it shouldn't exist?

Did I say I'll never try it?

What I said was if you don't support it, don't buy it. Is that really that hard to understand that I've had to post the same thing three times now? Price shouldn't have a bearing on something people disagree with.

E.g.
"I hate the Natal and all it stands for! What? it's only $50? cool I might get one!"

You can't stand on one issue and allow yourself to be swayed simply because it's got a nice price tag attached to it.

Nerf Ninja:

fletch_talon:

Nerf Ninja:

Gladion:

Nerf Ninja:
It doesn't matter how much it will cost, if you are even slightly against motion control coming to the Xbox you shouldn't buy one. Just because it's cheap doesn't make it an agreeable price. You buy one you're allowing them to make the kind of game that uses such an unwanted device.

Which part of your post explains to me why you are forced to buy motion-sensor controlled games if Natal is successful?

Who said anything about being forced to buy one? I said if you buy one you're allowing them to make the kind of games that use the natal. Actually, why would you buy one and then not buy the games for it?

My point was that if you disagree with it don't support it just because it's cheap.

Because as we all know, you can totally have an accurate and unbiased opinion of something without even trying it.
Not to mention if you don't like it then it shouldn't exist, regardless of what other people think.

Did you read my post or just react to it?

Did I say it shouldn't exist?

Did I say I'll never try it?

What I said was if you don't support it, don't buy it. Is that really that hard to understand that I've had to post the same thing three times now? Price shouldn't have a bearing on something people disagree with.

E.g.
"I hate the Natal and all it stands for! What? it's only $50? cool I might get one!"

You can't stand on one issue and allow yourself to be swayed simply because it's got a nice price tag attached to it.

For starters, to say you hate Natal and all it stands for is ignorant, unless you've managed to get some kind of in depth look at it, perhaps even try it. You have no idea whether it would be worthwhile or not, you're just taking the all too common stance that its different and therefore its crap. Or perhaps you're comparing it to Wii controls and the Eyetoy, which is equally ignorant considering all signs point to it being considerably different.

Also, what is the point exactly of telling people who have already decided to hate it (like yourself) to not buy it. While we're at it, why don't we tell the pope not to have sex with a man? If someone is considering buying it due to the price, then it just means they're more open minded than you, and believe that for the price quoted, its worth actually trying Natal before making any judgements.

Your last comment is very true. Price should not change your beliefs about something, but beliefs should not be based on assumptions and bias. The way I see it, you're as bad, if not worse than the people you're complaining about.

fletch_talon:

Nerf Ninja:

fletch_talon:

Nerf Ninja:

Gladion:

Nerf Ninja:
It doesn't matter how much it will cost, if you are even slightly against motion control coming to the Xbox you shouldn't buy one. Just because it's cheap doesn't make it an agreeable price. You buy one you're allowing them to make the kind of game that uses such an unwanted device.

Which part of your post explains to me why you are forced to buy motion-sensor controlled games if Natal is successful?

Who said anything about being forced to buy one? I said if you buy one you're allowing them to make the kind of games that use the natal. Actually, why would you buy one and then not buy the games for it?

My point was that if you disagree with it don't support it just because it's cheap.

Because as we all know, you can totally have an accurate and unbiased opinion of something without even trying it.
Not to mention if you don't like it then it shouldn't exist, regardless of what other people think.

Did you read my post or just react to it?

Did I say it shouldn't exist?

Did I say I'll never try it?

What I said was if you don't support it, don't buy it. Is that really that hard to understand that I've had to post the same thing three times now? Price shouldn't have a bearing on something people disagree with.

E.g.
"I hate the Natal and all it stands for! What? it's only $50? cool I might get one!"

You can't stand on one issue and allow yourself to be swayed simply because it's got a nice price tag attached to it.

For starters, to say you hate Natal and all it stands for is ignorant, unless you've managed to get some kind of in depth look at it, perhaps even try it. You have no idea whether it would be worthwhile or not, you're just taking the all too common stance that its different and therefore its crap. Or perhaps you're comparing it to Wii controls and the Eyetoy, which is equally ignorant considering all signs point to it being considerably different.

Also, what is the point exactly of telling people who have already decided to hate it (like yourself) to not buy it. While we're at it, why don't we tell the pope not to have sex with a man? If someone is considering buying it due to the price, then it just means they're more open minded than you, and believe that for the price quoted, its worth actually trying Natal before making any judgements.

Your last comment is very true. Price should not change your beliefs about something, but beliefs should not be based on assumptions and bias. The way I see it, you're as bad, if not worse than the people you're complaining about.

Please actually read my post.

Oh and E.g. means for example.

I didn't say I hate the natal and all it stands for I used that as admittedly oversimplified example, plus if you had read the entire "quote" you'd notice it had a u-turn in the middle where because it is cheap the speaker has decided that although they have decided to not support it they'll buy it anyway because it is cheap which is the same as supporting it.

I don't really care one way or the other about the natal I don't know enough to make a decision about whether or not I will buy one, I probably won't because I don't care for that kind of thing but it might indeed be the best thing since sliced porn.

All I said was (For the fourth time) If you don't support it don't buy it.

It seems to me (As in this is my opinion only) that you have become sick of people bashing the natal without having any actual knowledge of the product and as such you saw my post as another attack on it and decided to rather than actually pay attention to what I wrote, attack back.

Nerf Ninja:
All I said was (For the fourth time) If you don't support it don't buy it.

Captain Obvious wins the Obvious award. In similar news, if you don't like swimming, don't go to the pool on cheap swim day.

Seriously, I think the problem you're having is that people were assuming you had some sort of actual point to make, and weren't just typing to see your words on the screen.

Nerf Ninja:
SNIP

Yes clearly I misunderstood your statement saying that it was an "unwanted device".

On the one hand, if you were aiming your post at people who already believe the device to be worthless, then your post is redundant because they've already made up their mind.
If you were aiming it at those who have decided that at the estimated price Natal may be worth buying, then your post comes across as some kind of propaganda recruiting people to the anti-Natal movement. This impression is enforced when you claim that they are "allowing them to make the kind of game that uses such an unwanted device."

In other words:
If you don't want to buy it don't buy it.
or
If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem.

I realise you may not have intended to come across this way, but you have. Just to clear things up, the only people that will change their mind due to the price, are those who weren't so closed minded to it in the first place. Besides which, price is a factor in regards to the things you purchase. A game may well be released which you have no interest in, but if it drops to a price at which you're willing to give it a chance, then why not?

Ghonzor:
Yay?
I honestly will never touch the thing

Of course you won't, that's the entire point of Natal! *cymbal crash*

I really don't know if I'll be getting it yet. I'm not a fan of motion control for the vast majority of games, but it does work well with a handful of them.. thing is, the ones it works best for aren't games I'm really into playing on a regular basis.

As to the price, however, that is definitely lower than I expected. They do need to keep it low because peripherals already have such a hard time catching on and a $50 price point (or maybe $80 with a game included?) is just the type of price they need.

I'd kind of believe this if it was something other than speculation. I mean I know it's an analyst's job to make these kinds of predictions as accurately as possible but Pachter has a bit of a spotty record

Plus it just sounds too good to be true.

I'm really wondering if MS will redesign or rebrand their console along with this because if they truly want to delve into a new market then a hardcore console + motion toy peripheral isn't going to cut it.

To get the attention of non-video game consumers they'll need to make the console be approachable, toy-ish looking, give it a more catchy name and then have commercials with celebrities in it. If they just release the peripheral and say: "hey this is totally good for everyone!" noone is going to flock over. They'll need to make this as easy to understand as possible, consumers aren't exactly the smartest animals (and you bet a lot of people will be pissed once they find out that the camera doesn't come with the console, or that they got the wrong package etc etc). Either they'll make less than average numbers or go all out and rebrand (which will be funny just for some of the reactions of 'hardcore' Xbox gamers).

Anyway 50 $ seems too good to be true, but I guess it's possible. It's not like Pachter will admit defeat once it drops at 100$, he'll most likely just cover it up by making more wild claims (like Wii HD, as if that's ever going to happen). I'll check Natal out once it hits, there has to be something behind the hype I suppose. I certainly won't buy it but it's good to stay informed.

$50 sounds fair. $79 is a stretch, and probably prices it out of my range. $100+ is absolutely not happening for me.

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