David Jaffe Predicts Next Console Generation Will Be the Last

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David Jaffe Predicts Next Console Generation Will Be the Last

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The God of War and Twisted Metal creator thinks that the $60 game model is broken, and won't last much longer.

It's not just Angry Birds developer, Rovio Mobile, that foresees dark times ahead for console gaming, Eat Sleep Play boss David Jaffe thinks that outlook is pretty bleak as well. Jaffe believes that we're coming to the end of console gaming, and that while there will be a PlayStation 4, there won't be a PlayStation 5.

Jaffe felt that pre-owned sales and piracy were two of the biggest threats to the industry, because they were both taking revenue away from the publishers and developers. He suggested a PS3 game that sold 300,000 copies might sell 850,000 were it not for pre-owned sales. He said that that was not a model that was sustainable forever, and that it was would only be a few more years before the industry started to shy away from trying to make blockbuster games, and instead turned smaller, cheaper alternatives that they didn't require such huge levels of investment.

Jaffe thought that the retail business model, where a game costs $60 or so, was broken for the majority of games, especially when it came to value for money. He said that the game that contained hundreds of hours of gameplay was just as much of a problem as the one that contained just a handful of hours. He felt that there would always be a market for the really big games, like Gears of War and Uncharted, but he was less clear on what people would be playing them on. He said that it might be a streaming service like OnLive or Gaikai that filled that role, or a digital platform like Steam, but he was convinced that after the next console generation, the industry would move on to something else.

The problem here is that Jaffe is saying a lot of different things, which don't go together quite as well he seems to think. He's very likely correct that $60 games won't be around forever, but it doesn't automatically follow that a new business model will kill off consoles. It's not dissimilar to the situation with PC gaming, which has apparently been on its deathbed for years, and yet somehow keeps surviving, adapting and evolving.

Source: IGN

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With both consoles and PC's gone... What then?

So, we've heard that PC gaming is dying.

Now console gaming is dying.

Are games just fated to die or what?

People really talk out of their arses whenever they infer that "X style" gaming is dying.

ll know there's only one more console generation left. You know, until the next one.
I think it will come to cloud based gaming and downloadable games, as they negate pre-owned sales. The problem with that is that internet is not available for everyone yet.

It's not as if Jaffe knew what he was talking about. Working in the industry doesn't mean knowing the industry. He's just a man-child doing games for himself: power fantasy with over-the-top violence.

So, within 2 days we get a dark prophecy for PC gaming and one for consoles
I wonder what MovieBob has to say about it.

I predict the death of TVs. Radio will reign supreme.

All this talk of consoles, pc's etc. dying is complete shit. They make so much money off games now and it's such a huge market that we won't need to worry about this for a long time. People enjoy console and PC gaming too much for it to ever die off, as if we're all going to want to play our games on a goddamn phone 24/7.

By this logic, if Jaffe wants to survive, he'll demand that Twisted Metal cost $30. I wonder if he will.

I think at the moment, Jaffe is just trying to generate press interest around himself. The other day it was art games, today it's consoles. The best way to get yourself noticed is to be aggressive and outspoken, and this way, people start paying more attention to Twisted Metal again.

DazBurger:
With both consoles and PC's gone... What then?

The Ultra Device! Capable of fulfilling all your gaming wants and desires!!!

If only they grew a brain and lowered the prices to begin with. Maybe they'll pull in that pre-owned crowd.

Developers can solve this problem by lowering the prices. It's as simple as that. Sorry, Jaffe. I don't agree with you on this one.

He's starting to sound like pachter, full of uneducated nonsense.

LavaLampBamboo:
By this logic, if Jaffe wants to survive, he'll demand that Twisted Metal cost $30. I wonder if he will.

I think at the moment, Jaffe is just trying to generate press interest around himself. The other day it was art games, today it's consoles. The best way to get yourself noticed is to be aggressive and outspoken, and this way, people start paying more attention to Twisted Metal again.

Lol, I agree with both statements here. Especially the 30 dollar twisted metal.

Shycte:
I predict the death of TVs. Radio will reign supreme.

Damn straight! All hail the AM band!

As for if PC gaming is dead, and console gaming is dying, I guess that makes iOS and facebook gaming the future! We're all doomed...

I think he might be right in that the next generation might be the last but for a different reason. In my opinion raw graphics power is approaching its peak and the next generation will probably be the last to need the major hardware upgrades that each new generation has brought.

This guy hasn't got a fully loaded clip.

The streaming services are utterly ridiculous. Even as a concept, and especially in terms of practicality.

There'll be consoles after the next generation. And PC gaming sales grew a whole 20% last year. This is just the regular bullshit of everyone wanting to be the next prophet, on a market, where knowing and predicting the-next-hot-thing and consumer behavior is immensely important.

I don't understand why every time there's a huge fuzz when a one-in-a-hundred guy like this one, speculates something spectacular. Bullshit.

DazBurger:
With both consoles and PC's gone... What then?

Two competing devices, the CoDBox180 and the WoWStation. Both will only run one game and everyone in the industry will be employed in updating those titles with content.

Believe I welcome the end of the $60 model, my wallet will be eternally grateful

On the subject of expensive retail games, he's very likely correct. Why would you buy new at 50, when you can get an indistinguishable version preowned for 30? Companies will charge whatever they can get people to pay, and we're coming to the limits of that these days - the vast majority of people are starting to say no, they won't pay fifty quid for a game when five years ago it was forty, and five more it was thirty.

Sure, there's the argument that when you have budgets of ten million and upwards, you need to recoup those costs - but in the same breath they go on to decry piracy and preowned sales. Basic business sense: higher prices don't always mean higher profits, if nobody wants to pay said prices and there are cheaper alternatives out there.

You know, I'm just going to say that I would be much more inclined to buy new games if they weren't so expensive.

And what exactly will come after consoles?

More Fun To Compute:

DazBurger:
With both consoles and PC's gone... What then?

Two competing devices, the CoDBox180 and the WoWStation. Both will only run one game and everyone in the industry will be employed in updating those titles with content.

*Scurries off to patent the ElderScrollsPad*

I love this prediction because it borders on insane.

We now have someone claiming that console gaming is dying within the next 10 years or so? So.... the largest entertainment industry in the world at this point is going to die? Nice prediction. Just like TV killed the radion.... oh wait..... there are lots of radio stations left, even on AM radio.

/rant end

OT: You won't see an end to the videogame industry anytime soon. You may see an end to Sony and Microsoft Systems, but a company will come along that won't make these same mistakes. And it's not the piracy and used game sales that's killing it. It is, as Jaffe points out, the $60 game model though. I have predicted that since the current generation came out. You have to make games worth that much in order for people to buy them, and not much is worth of it. And while I hate to point it out, you should probably register a game to a user ID. It happens all the time on the PC, it has been for years. That is the medium they can't really put down. In the last 10 years, I have heard the prediction of the death of PC Gaming three times. And each time the medium bounces back. Now EA is saying that PC Game development may be their primary format in the future. Good luck convincing Steam the PC market is dying as well.

The gaming companies are frivolous in the their spending habits, and like anything that is over invested into, there is such a thing as diminishing returns. Invest $5 Million seems to get companies as much a return as $30 million, but the software has to be worth while. Most of the current generation of console gaming is all flash but fails in some very basic ways to perform. My biggest pet peeve is short games personally, and good luck finding any game that lasts more than 5-8 hours. Then it jumps to the extreme at 60+ hours. These are broken models. How about an RPG that lasts 30 hours. In the Super Nintendo generation, the average RPG length for me about 24 hours. Some of my fondest RPG memories are from that generation. I am tired of hearing about titles referred to as "Triple A" titles. This is just synonymous with more expensive to make. Then you have to sell 2 million units to break even. That should say something to companies, but it doesn't because they are mostly inept business men who don't know anything about actual gaming.

I could sit here and name games that have huge profit margins, but it's not worth while because no one who makes any decisions regarding these things will ever see it. But I know the gaming community knows what I'm talking about.

As a final note, if David Jaffe thinks the industry that has made him famous is dead, he should leave then. I have dealt with that attitude in other areas as well. If he is convinced it's going to fail, he is going to help it fail and not try to save it. You see this all the time in gaming. Someone thinks your team is going to lose so they stop trying. I would rather never see another game from the guy rather than a lousy title because his team is losing.

I agree in a sense that the price point is way too high but due to sales of the Wii and game events such as new entries in the Call of Duty or Halo franchises companies are still going to view console gaming as viable options.

What Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft need to do is tackle price points. By seeting it too high they've cut out a key demographic that made the PS3 and Xbox successes; teenagers and low income 20 somethings. Kids will always get parents to buy games and those with high disposable incomes are able to buy spur of the moment game purchases but it restricts the other two groups. It's these 2 groups that are driven to piracy due to their circumstances and with their better techological knowledge or at least savy they can do it easier than the groups who are buying.

Also why not hire these hackers instead of prosecuting and have them work on a system that is both impossible to hack and not obnoxious in the way it works

I think its a little short sighted to say what he did. I was actually talking to my friend about this and we came to the conclusion that things that inhibit the way we enjoy games, such as lending them to each other or playing whenever we want offline, is causing us to shy away from games.

For one, I really hate DLC and the model that Microsoft uses on XBLA for it. I have more than one console and neither are regularly attached to the internet. This causes headaches as I can't play many games I own while not connected to the internet. If high-speed internet would be free, then that would be different but it's not.

Aside from that, once I'm done an arcade game I wish I could share it with a friend the way I used to a Nintendo cartridge. Now it just sits there and waits forever.

I also have a rather large backlog of games that I am working through. I still play SNES and PS games on a regular basis. Without the physical medium, how am I supposed to enjoy the games of yesteryear? Rereleases always tend to have "improvements" that I find bothersome and don't necessarily agree with.

And one final problem. I am curious to see what happens 10 years down the road when my 360 fails. If I get a replacement, will I still be able to transfer the licences to newer machine. Or do I end up losing all my investments and the ability to play those games forever because they don't find it profitable to support a previous generation.

What I am really asking is this: Is there going to be a shelf life on a game I paid a license fee for?

Idea!

Don't sell unproven IP's at full price. Jack up price of proven IP's (so 80 dollars for Call of Duty, 30-40 dollars for Vanquish for instance) and generally be more flexible.

Magicka is selling tremendously well because the price is perfect for example.

Piracy has very little effect on your sales and neither do used games. They're there and you can't remove either system, so shut the fuck up and try to find other alternatives other than pummelling your own customers into the ground and going "La la la I can't hear you" whenever someone suggests that your pricing system needs to change.

Also, instead of making third person RPG's, make them Baldur's Gate and Fallout style, with a top down view that cuts back on costs but also allows you to innovate.

Moreover, if you need better graphics, develop for PC, which is infinitely cheaper than trying to squeeze power out of a device whose graphics card is obsolete and whose half a gigabyte of RAM is laughable when most PC releases have a minimum of 2 GB.

You could use art styles instead of more realistic graphics too.

Hollywood spends millions on special effects because there is a vast market for them. There is no such market in gaming because gaming doesn't have the popularity of movies, at least not traditional gaming. The most successful game in the industry is one which has been using the same graphics engine for three years.

Finally, stop making all games about action. It's expensive and unecessary. Amnesia sold exceptionally well for an indie game and the game is about story, exploration, hiding, running and puzzle solving, as well as looking fantastic.

TLDR version: Wake up, stop trying to be Hollywood, be more flexible with price, develop for PC if you want better graphics or develop art styles, use old Baldur's Gate and Fallout views for RPG's or other views for other games to cut back on price and don't make all games about action.

DazBurger:
With both consoles and PC's gone... What then?

everybody will then play Pokemon Crystal with the gameboys linked

and so, the first Pokemon MMO will be born

and it will be beautiful

man, if only it was true XD

Nothing is dying.

Everything is changing.

All the doomsayers are about half right. I suspect within 10 years time our medium will hold a very different model, one more sustainable in the long run. We're basically still operating off the same formulas from the atari / nes era. With so much changing around us in technology it won't be long until a large paradigm shift happens. You see a bit of a glimpse of it with digital distribution being so huge and with the onset of cloud gaming.

I'm just glad I'll be around to see where it goes. I'll tell you one thing though, I'll have my mouse and keyboard on me regardless.

Why do people think that if it weren't for pre-owned and piracy these people would go out and buy full price retail?

I don't pirate games any more, I still rarely pay full price. I can wait. For prices to drop, for a sale or both. Steam christmas sale has filled my collection, I still have 5 games that I bought then and haven't played yet.

<edit>
I think half the problem is that the game market seems to be obsessed with only the latest and greatest games. If I wanted to buy a copy of say...original theme park (1994? ish?) now, I would struggle mightily to get a new copy. Yet at the same time if I want to buy a DVD of cassablanca (1942) or its a wonderful life (1946) no problem. Maybe the market is still too small to support that big a back catalogue, or perhaps to many people are just graphics whores to support it.

We'll all be playing games on the sidewalk soon, what with all of this doomsaying.

"THE END IS NIGH!", sounds familiar doesn't it? Pay no notice to these heathen!

I can see this current generation being the last. Not because it's dying, but because there's really nowhere to go.

What are they going to do? More graphics and processing power? They can't use what is currently available and are driving themselves into the ground trying.

Barring some dramatic change in the very nature of game play, there's really no reasonable reason to have one.

Hey consoles, pull up a pillow, this death bead is actually very comfortable and not at all what people with very big mouths make it out to be. We've been here for decades.

Simple solution, sell games at $40-30 instead of 60, you'll get higher profits than the game stores that sell them again at half the price before and probably more of the people who bought the game pre-owned would be more inclined to get it new than pre-owned.

So much gloom and Doom recently. I'm going to stop listening to people and go look at some LoL cats, they always cheer me up

teh_Canape:

DazBurger:
With both consoles and PC's gone... What then?

everybody will then play Pokemon Crystal with the gameboys linked

and so, the first Pokemon MMO will be born

and it will be beautiful

Will it be shinny?

LordSphinx:
He's just a man-child doing games for himself: power fantasy with over-the-top violence.

God of War is not just a regular power fantasy with over-the-top violence.

OT: If the Wii is any indication console gaming is still a profitable market.

HankMan:
So much gloom and Doom recently. I'm going to stop listening to people and go look at some LoL cats, they always cheer me up

teh_Canape:

DazBurger:
With both consoles and PC's gone... What then?

everybody will then play Pokemon Crystal with the gameboys linked

and so, the first Pokemon MMO will be born

and it will be beautiful

Will it be shinny?

maybe

who knows what the future has for us

if anything, we can still go back and play System Shock 2 online =P

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