Michael Pachter Predicts Wii U Failure

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Michael Pachter Predicts Wii U Failure

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An industry analyst thinks the Wii U will appeal mainly to "hardcore Nintendo fanboys."

The reaction to the Wii U after its unveiling at E3 2012 has been somewhat mixed. Some publishers are throwing support behind it while other developers are dismissing it entirely. Now Michael Pachter, everyone's favorite industry analyst, has weighed in on the Wii U, and he doesn't have particularly kind things to say about it.

He called the new console a "solution in search of a problem," insisting that not many games will take advantage of the new tablet-esque functionality and that the only people who buy it will be core gamers and "hardcore Nintendo fanboys." Pachter went on to state that Nintendo could "put out a piece of cardboard and say that it'll play Mario" and still be successful with the aforementioned fanbase. He made sure to emphasize that, while he has no particular dislike of Nintendo itself, he believes its paradigm is based on novelty and therefore faulty. "I just think that they really believe that, 'If we're still novel, everything we do will work'. This isn't going to work."

Pachter had similar concerns with the Wii, which he described as 'gimmicky' when it was originally announced. The Wii, meanwhile, opened up to an explosion of sales, even temporarily beating out the PS2 before leveling off. He stood by his original assessment of the console's viability, saying that Nintendo "got lucky" with the Wii's breakout success and that it wouldn't happen again with the Wii U.

It's not all bad news for the Wii U, though. Pachter believes that the new Wii U Pro Controller, which resembles certain other companies' default gamepads, was a Nintendo compromise prompted by third party demands. He didn't cite a specific source, but claimed he knows that Activision refused to port their major franchises - specifically Call of Duty - without a more conventional gamepad option. If true, it means Nintendo is specifically catering to third party developers' desires, which could lead to a bigger variety of third-party games on the upcoming console.

Source: Edge

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I honestly agree with him. The main issue, in mind, is that the Wii U's hardware will fall behind again in the next gen and it will getting shitty 3rd party support again... only this time all of the casuals will be playing games on their iPhones.

The guy has no cred on this issue. He was overly critical of the Wii when it came out so it's no surprise he's critical of the Wii U. Now if he was an analyst who has a track record of getting market predictions correct then what he says would matter. I'd get a better view of what it would do if I asked a 100 people randomly how many units they think the Wii U will sell in its first week.

There actually appears to be a lot of potential with the design, especially with asymmetric game play. I don't see Nintendo taking advantage of it. I really don't think hard ware power is going to be a big issue. Things have started leveling of in terms of graphics intensity, so as long as it's capable of running current generation graphics it'll do fine.

Frankly I wouldn't mind more games with excellent low power graphics like Chrono Trigger than another ultra realistic, gritty, first or third person game. Keep things simple and make other things compelling. Like the freedom and story of Chrono Trigger. I even love the old fmv cut scenes of Dark Forces 2.

He has some good points, but I do believe that the WiiU Will be a success, though it could flat line like the Wii did. I just don't see it being a failure.

HAHA. got lucky.... thats like what a 12 year old would say when he lost a competition.

YEAH, WELL, YOU JUST GOT LUCKY THIS TIME! NEXT TIME ILL BEAT YOU! :(

Mr.Mattress:
He has some good points, but I do believe that the WiiU Will be a success, though it could flat line like the Wii did. I just don't see it being a failure.

the wii didnt flatline, it was a success, and it died out around the time the console cycle dies down. its the 360 and the ps3 who have artifically extended their lifetime.

While Pachter is pretty much full of shit, I do have some concerns of my own with the Wii U's hardware (and third-party support)... to the point where I've changed my stance on Nintendo developing their own hardware. At this point I'd be all for Nintendo and Microsoft (or Sony) as partners on that front.

Because I still think Nintendo's own games benefit from them having some control over the hardware design, but on many points I don't agree with their priorities.

well if he yells enough times a console will fail he might be right in the end, but that doesn't mean he knows what he is talking about.

Can't we just ignore this guy. So much nonsence is leaving his mouth it isn't funny anymore.

He's right. I think nintendo shot their bolt with the wii and I doubt they'll be able to do it again with the wii-u. I know too many people whose wii's are sat on the shelf gathering dust while while they play xbox or ps3 regularly.

so he called the Wii "gimmicky" then it sells comparatively to the PS3, and now he's saying that the WiiU will never stand a chance. this means that if he has any consistency the WiiU will sell better then the NextBox.

medv4380:
The guy has no cred on this issue. He was overly critical of the Wii when it came out so it's no surprise he's critical of the Wii U. Now if he was an analyst who has a track record of getting market predictions correct then what he says would matter. I'd get a better view of what it would do if I asked a 100 people randomly how many units they think the Wii U will sell in its first week.

You would probably get the same answer, very few have been excited about the WiiU since it was announced. Unexcited people aren't buyers.

medv4380:
The guy has no cred on this issue. He was overly critical of the Wii when it came out so it's no surprise he's critical of the Wii U. Now if he was an analyst who has a track record of getting market predictions correct then what he says would matter. I'd get a better view of what it would do if I asked a 100 people randomly how many units they think the Wii U will sell in its first week.

Well the Wii didn't exactly leave a great taste in the mouth if the Nintendo fanbase so he does have some cred. Seriously do you think that the casual crowd of consumers that bought the Wii in the first place bought more than 5 games max? Furthermore do you think that they'll buy another console in general if they don't game that much to begin with? Seriously we've seen how casuals react over time with the massive fall in profits for Zynga as well as Nintendo's own losses that have been posted. He may be right on this one.

Crono1973:

medv4380:
The guy has no cred on this issue. He was overly critical of the Wii when it came out so it's no surprise he's critical of the Wii U. Now if he was an analyst who has a track record of getting market predictions correct then what he says would matter. I'd get a better view of what it would do if I asked a 100 people randomly how many units they think the Wii U will sell in its first week.

You would probably get the same answer, very few have been excited about the WiiU since it was announced. Unexcited people aren't buyers.

Hardware sales are what the Wii has the advantage in, Software sales is another story completely.

Patcher thinks the Wii U will fail?

BRB BUYING NINTENDO STOCK

Seriously, this guy NEVER gets anything right. Stop listening to him.

true I don't think Wii U won't be all that great specially now that I have a high end PC :/
still Wii U is the only place I'll be able to play the next Zelda

so on the same day Zelda releases I'll buy the console as well, so if Nintendo smart they'll do the same as they did with Wii

Its a mess but they should do alright, but it might turn out to be another N64....

AzrealMaximillion:

Crono1973:

medv4380:
The guy has no cred on this issue. He was overly critical of the Wii when it came out so it's no surprise he's critical of the Wii U. Now if he was an analyst who has a track record of getting market predictions correct then what he says would matter. I'd get a better view of what it would do if I asked a 100 people randomly how many units they think the Wii U will sell in its first week.

You would probably get the same answer, very few have been excited about the WiiU since it was announced. Unexcited people aren't buyers.

Hardware sales are what the Wii has the advantage in, Software sales is another story completely.

We are talking about the WiiU and so far, not too many people are excited. Speaking of the Wii though, before it released I remember people being really excited for it, I was too.

Um, I hate to break it to you guy but Nintendo does not have anything left of its 'hardcore' base. They all went to other systems and said very bile things about the Wii. 'Hardcore' gamers don't like anything that isn't the same design they have seen for the past 10 years but updated. It comes with the fact that they have been trained for X number of years on the old design and don't want to be as inept as a new gamer in the new design.

Anyways, I reserve judgment until I sales actually start. I know lots of people didn't see the Wii as bring successful so I'm going to wait and see on this.

Crono1973:

AzrealMaximillion:

Crono1973:

You would probably get the same answer, very few have been excited about the WiiU since it was announced. Unexcited people aren't buyers.

Hardware sales are what the Wii has the advantage in, Software sales is another story completely.

We are talking about the WiiU and so far, not too many people are excited. Speaking of the Wii though, before it released I remember people being really excited for it, I was too.

Sorry, quoted the wrong person :P

gardian06:
so he called the Wii "gimmicky" then it sells comparatively to the PS3, and now he's saying that the WiiU will never stand a chance. this means that if he has any consistency the WiiU will sell better then the NextBox.

Hardware sales are what the Wii has the advantage in, Software sales is another story completely. Seriously how many 3rd party games flopped on the Wii?

I would say the big problem is that the "General Public" seems very confused by the WiiU, I'm pretty sure people will either think it's a "Wii Peripheral" like Wii Fit or a Nintendo Tablet and will either ignore it or be disappointed by it. As for the "core" audience... well... Nintendo is behind the times in terms of hardware and is unlikely to get the shiniest newest games... so perhaps Patcher is right.

Didn't this same guy predict the failure of the Wii? You know, that vastly popular console that sold more units than either of its competitors despite having next to ZERO games in terms of third party support?

And he's now predicting that the Wii U will fail even though it boasts significantly larger third party support than its predecessor?

While he expresses a fair point (namely that Nintendo's die-hard fans will buy just about anything of theirs), the same could be said of any console or studio or franchise. It's not really indicative of anything, nor is it a profound statement. "Brand loyalty usually yields sales regardless of quality" isn't exactly a goddamn news flash.

AzrealMaximillion:
Well the Wii didn't exactly leave a great taste in the mouth if the Nintendo fanbase so he does have some cred. Seriously do you think that the casual crowd of consumers that bought the Wii in the first place bought more than 5 games max?

You seem to be missing the point.

Any sale = net profit for Nintendo. Their first party games are made on the cheap, and the Wii was the only one of the three new consoles making a profit per unit sold. Even if we assume every single person who owns a Wii never bought more than five games (and I have more than that in my personal collection so I'm living proof that you're wrong), that's still 1 console + 5 games worth of profit. More if they bought extra peripherals like more controllers, steering wheels, Wii Plus, Wii Fit boards, and so on (which is where Nintendo REALLY raked in the cash). So while you consider a single console and five games to be "bad", in Nintendo's mind you've done plenty for them already, and any more games would be icing on the cake.

If the Wii U did precisely the same thing in terms of sales, it'd mean MASSIVE profits for Nintendo and would not, by any stretch of the word, constitute a "failure" as this man is saying it will be. While Sony or Microsoft focus on making their games look amazing in HD and beefing up their hardware in the hopes that game sales will recoup the costs, Nintendo produces cheaper consoles and games, and then sits back and rakes in the profits from them. So the mark that Nintendo needs to hit to be "successful" in their minds is much lower than the mark Sony or Microsoft need to hit. Hell, the Gamecube was financially "successful" for them despite being by far the weakest of its generation....if they can turn a profit on that piece of trash, they can do it with this console too.

It's not like Nintendo really has to do very much work with this console to make it a success anyways. But the fact that they're offering significant incentives to developers to produce games for their console, and the inclusion of the more standard handheld controller, are all clear efforts to bring third party developers back into the fold. I think this guy is significantly underestimating Nintendo, just like he did with the Wii, and time will prove him wrong.

PedroSteckecilo:
I would say the big problem is that the "General Public" seems very confused by the WiiU, I'm pretty sure people will either think it's a "Wii Peripheral" like Wii Fit or a Nintendo Tablet and will either ignore it or be disappointed by it. As for the "core" audience... well... Nintendo is behind the times in terms of hardware and is unlikely to get the shiniest newest games... so perhaps Patcher is right.

This is true, like for Christ's sake CNN didn't even know that the WiiU was just a controller. When one of the biggest news companies is at E3 and doesn't know what the hell you're selling, you have major issues. If CNN didn't know, casual customers will have no clue.

PedroSteckecilo:
I would say the big problem is that the "General Public" seems very confused by the WiiU, I'm pretty sure people will either think it's a "Wii Peripheral" like Wii Fit or a Nintendo Tablet and will either ignore it or be disappointed by it. As for the "core" audience... well... Nintendo is behind the times in terms of hardware and is unlikely to get the shiniest newest games... so perhaps Patcher is right.

Nintendo has done nothing to remedy this either. The WiiU itself looks too similar to the Wii and the name WiiU is too similar to Wii. They are going to run into the same problem they had with the 3DS, that people think it's just a redesigned Wii and not a completely new console.

See, the thing is, the Wii is pretty cheaply made and I understand that considering Nintendo was coming off of two generations where they weren't on top but there is no excuse this time around. They had the money to spend to make a true next gen console and they made a current gen console, just like they did with the Wii. They don't even include a HDD which has become pretty standard.

CriticKitten:
Didn't this same guy predict the failure of the Wii? You know, that vastly popular console that sold more units than either of its competitors despite having next to ZERO games in terms of third party support?

And he's now predicting that the Wii U will fail even though it boasts significantly larger third party support than its predecessor?

While he expresses a fair point (namely that Nintendo's die-hard fans will buy just about anything of theirs), the same could be said of any console or studio or franchise. It's not really indicative of anything, nor is it a profound statement. "Brand loyalty usually yields sales regardless of quality" isn't exactly a goddamn news flash.

AzrealMaximillion:
Well the Wii didn't exactly leave a great taste in the mouth if the Nintendo fanbase so he does have some cred. Seriously do you think that the casual crowd of consumers that bought the Wii in the first place bought more than 5 games max?

You seem to be missing the point.

Any sale = net profit for Nintendo. Their first party games are made on the cheap, and the Wii was the only one of the three new consoles making a profit per unit sold. Even if we assume every single person who owns a Wii never bought more than five games (and I have more than that in my personal collection so I'm living proof that you're wrong), that's still 1 console + 5 games worth of profit. More if they bought extra peripherals like more controllers, steering wheels, Wii Plus, Wii Fit boards, and so on (which is where Nintendo REALLY raked in the cash). So while you consider a single console and five games to be "bad", in Nintendo's mind you've done plenty for them already, and any more games would be icing on the cake.

If the Wii U did precisely the same thing in terms of sales, it'd mean MASSIVE profits for Nintendo and would not, by any stretch of the word, constitute a "failure" as this man is saying it will be. While Sony or Microsoft focus on making their games look amazing in HD and beefing up their hardware in the hopes that game sales will recoup the costs, Nintendo produces cheaper consoles and games, and then sits back and rakes in the profits from them. So the mark that Nintendo needs to hit to be "successful" in their minds is much lower than the mark Sony or Microsoft need to hit. Hell, the Gamecube was financially "successful" for them despite being by far the weakest of its generation....if they can turn a profit on that piece of trash, they can do it with this console too.

It's not like Nintendo really has to do very much work with this console to make it a success anyways. But the fact that they're offering significant incentives to developers to produce games for their console, and the inclusion of the more standard handheld controller, are all clear efforts to bring third party developers back into the fold. I think this guy is significantly underestimating Nintendo, just like he did with the Wii, and time will prove him wrong.

We are more concerned with how well the WiiU will satisfy the desires of the gaming community, not how much money Nintendo makes. I am sure Nintendo appreciates how much you care for their bottom line but we really don't.

As you said, the Gamecube was financially successful but what does that mean for gamers? It means nothing. The Wii was REALLY financially successful but what do we care, it's just collecting dust for most of us.

Nintendo's lack of regard for core gamers this gen is coming back to bite them while the casual gamers they chased probably moved on to playing games on their phones.

"Hardcore Nintendo Fanboys" and oblivious parents who want something to raise their kid for them while THEY are using the TV.

AzrealMaximillion:
Well the Wii didn't exactly leave a great taste in the mouth if the Nintendo fanbase so he does have some cred. Seriously do you think that the casual crowd of consumers that bought the Wii in the first place bought more than 5 games max? Furthermore do you think that they'll buy another console in general if they don't game that much to begin with? Seriously we've seen how casuals react over time with the massive fall in profits for Zynga as well as Nintendo's own losses that have been posted. He may be right on this one.

Then you shouldn't be saying that he's right ether because he'e saying that Nintendo Hard Core Gamers would be buying the system, but you're saying that they didn't like it.

Before you start pulling number out of thin air you might actually Try to lookup the attach rate for the Wii. It's currently around 8 games per system which is pretty good given the large number of Casual gamers. PS3 is about 8 as well and the 360 is about 9 but I think the 360 number is deflated due to inflated hardware sales from RROD, but there is no way to adjust for that. Digital says are also excluded but those could only increase the numbers not decrease.

Patcher: "I didn't talk to Activision, but I KNOW that..." .... you know that Patcher just talks out of his butt and gets paid to do it.

Seriously, Patcher is the guy that said Borderlands was "sent out to die", that the Nintendo DS and Wii were going to flop, that $250 for the 3DS was reasonable for most people, that Xbox Live's price was going to double and Kinect was only going to be $50, that Grand Theft Auto V was going to be out in 2010, that Team Bondi's employee complaints were overstated (they weren't), and that the 360, Wii, and PS3 would be the last generation of consoles to ever exist.

Seriously, Patcher has crusaded against Nintendo's weird-but-successful business practices all generation like a Nintendo Zapper killed his parents or something.

There's even the running joke that "whatever Patcher predicts, the opposite will come true."

The only prediction I recall him getting right was "I bet Call of Duty sells a lot this year". And he was paid to make that prediction.

o.o?

who is this idiot and why should i care what he says?

CriticKitten:
You seem to be missing the point.

Any sale = net profit for Nintendo. Their first party games are made on the cheap, and the Wii was the only one of the three new consoles making a profit per unit sold.

Now Nintendo is the only company in the big 3 that has posted losses, you glossed over that.

Even if we assume every single person who owns a Wii never bought more than five games (and I have more than that in my personal collection so I'm living proof that you're wrong)

No you're not living proof of much actually. Look back at what I said. I said that most casual gamers do not have more than 5 games max in their collection. The casual market is a big chunk of who bought the Wii.

More if they bought extra peripherals like more controllers, steering wheels, Wii Plus, Wii Fit boards, and so on (which is where Nintendo REALLY raked in the cash).

Nice try but most of the Wii's peripherals came bundled with games at next to no extra cost with the exception of the Wii Fit Board. And again, Nintendo didn't really rake in the cash considering they're posting losses this year.

So while you consider a single console and five games to be "bad", in Nintendo's mind you've done plenty for them already, and any more games would be icing on the cake.

Not really, if none of those 5 titles are 3rd party games, which most likely they aren't because we're talking about the casual market that Nintendo targeted, 3rd party developers tend to give up/ scale back on releasing for the console that doesn't make them money. Capcom, and Sega have gone on record as saying that they've given up on making core games for the Wii because there's not enough core gamers to make any profit. It's the same reason that the No More Heroes PS3/360 port sold 60% better on the PS3 and 50% better on the 360 in its opening week than it did on the Wii. The audience is not there.

If the Wii U did precisely the same thing in terms of sales, it'd mean MASSIVE profits for Nintendo and would not, by any stretch of the word, constitute a "failure" as this man is saying it will be.

But it won't. When the Wii was announced, there was excitement in the air. When the WiiU was announced people said 'meh' and Nintendo's stocks dropped.[quote While Sony or Microsoft focus on making their games look amazing in HD and beefing up their hardware in the hopes that game sales will recoup the costs, Nintendo produces cheaper consoles and games, and then sits back and rakes in the profits from them.[/quote] You've effectively said the same argument in 3 different ways at this point. Also your ignoring the 3rd party developers and publishers, you know, the biggest portion of game creators. They can't sell core games on the Wii even with scaled back graphic so why the hell should they bother with the WiiU, we'll see if Mass Effect 3's WiiU sales even make it to half of what it sold on any other platform. [quote So the mark that Nintendo needs to hit to be "successful" in their minds is much lower than the mark Sony or Microsoft need to hit.[/quote] Again, no. They're the only company with losses posted currently. The PS3 and 360 have made profits for Sony and MS. Nintendo needs to recoup it's half a billion dollar losses and selling less than the competition ain't gonna cut it.

Hell, the Gamecube was financially "successful" for them despite being by far the weakest of its generation....if they can turn a profit on that piece of trash, they can do it with this console too.

The Gamecube had a wide array of sleeper hit exclusives and franchises to fall back on. It actually utilized fresh ideas to make up for its lack of power, something the Wii flopped very, very, very hard at.

It's not like Nintendo really has to do very much work with this console to make it a success anyways. But the fact that they're offering significant incentives to developers to produce games for their console, and the inclusion of the more standard handheld controller, are all clear efforts to bring third party developers back into the fold.[quote] What they need to do to get the 3rd party into the fold is promote the 3rd party's damn games. Nintendo can throw all the "incentives" they want at devs but if the console is marketed towards the casual market the devs will not care.[quote]I think this guy is significantly underestimating Nintendo, just like he did with the Wii, and time will prove him wrong.

Well time already showed us that Nintendo's lack of innovation and 3rd party support equals half a billion dollars in losses. Time will also show that with the WiiU coming out and being the most expensive console on the market for at least a year while the PS3 and 360 undercut it will hurt it. Time will also tell that with the Wii U only being able to technologically compete with the current gen even as a next gen console will hurt it in the long run. Hell right now I can tell you that Nintendo is mirroring the mistakes that Sega made with its consoles back in the 90s.

Fappy:
I honestly agree with him. The main issue, in mind, is that the Wii U's hardware will fall behind again in the next gen and it will getting shitty 3rd party support again... only this time all of the casuals will be playing games on their iPhones.

You honestly think sony or microsoft will make consoles sold at a loss again?
They have only just started making a decent profit they will just make them so they turn a profit right out of the gate which will limit possible tech.

And this man is also a fuckwit who's opinions on video games are as credible as Trump's opinions on birth certificates.

Why the fuck should I care what Patcher, the biggest moron who claims to be in the industry, says?

medv4380:

AzrealMaximillion:
Well the Wii didn't exactly leave a great taste in the mouth if the Nintendo fanbase so he does have some cred. Seriously do you think that the casual crowd of consumers that bought the Wii in the first place bought more than 5 games max? Furthermore do you think that they'll buy another console in general if they don't game that much to begin with? Seriously we've seen how casuals react over time with the massive fall in profits for Zynga as well as Nintendo's own losses that have been posted. He may be right on this one.

Then you shouldn't be saying that he's right ether because he'e saying that Nintendo Hard Core Gamers would be buying the system, but you're saying that they didn't like it.

Before you start pulling number out of thin air you might actually Try to lookup the attach rate for the Wii. It's currently around 8 games per system which is pretty good given the large number of Casual gamers. PS3 is about 8 as well and the 360 is about 9 but I think the 360 number is deflated due to inflated hardware sales from RROD, but there is no way to adjust for that. Digital says are also excluded but those could only increase the numbers not decrease.

I'll be honest, I did pull the 5 max games out of my ass as an estimate, but for you to combat me with a number that has no link attached to it is hilarious.

You're also forgoing a couple of factors.
1. Your attach rate does not differentiate the difference between core Wii gamers and non core Wii gamers, so by default your attach rate for casual gamers on the Wii is inflated.
2.Most casual gamers do not buy 3rd party games on the Wii, too many of them flopped because of the casual market for anyone to say otherwise. With the Wii's hardware sales even games like Zack and Wiki as well as MadWorld should have sold enough to profit, but they didn't because Nintendo marketed vigorously towards casual gamers. Hell, the PS2's sales numbers make it the KING console of sleeper hits. A lot of sleeper hit games on the PS2 sold enough to garner the Greatest Hits tag just because of how many units the PS2 sold. Case and point, Shadow of the Colossus and God Hand both sold well and in today's gaming market would have no business doing so on the Wii.

rolfwesselius:

Fappy:
I honestly agree with him. The main issue, in mind, is that the Wii U's hardware will fall behind again in the next gen and it will getting shitty 3rd party support again... only this time all of the casuals will be playing games on their iPhones.

You honestly think sony or microsoft will make consoles sold at a loss again?
They have only just started making a decent profit they will just make them so they turn a profit right out of the gate which will limit possible tech.

They both sold console at a loss but made profit in the software sales. It makes sense to me, especially since they charge developers for the license to put games on their console for every game made.

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