Wii U Sales Forecast Cut

Wii U Sales Forecast Cut

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The latest Nintendo financials are out, and Wii U sales expectations are down 1.5 million units.

Nintendo's current financial year sales estimates for its new Wii U console have been cut to 4 million units, down from its 5.5 million previous estimate. The Wii U isn't the only one down on its estimates; sales of most of its hardware, including the Wii, isn't performing to expectations.

A weak Yen, as compared to the Euro and the Dollar, pushed Nintendo's predicted net profits up to 14 billion; a bright spot, given that the previous estimate was 6 billion. Sales of the Wii U console did well over Christmas, and in Japan, but in other markets - particularly the Americas - the Wii, its predecessor, enjoyed better sales returns. Software Wii U sales were also down; Nintendo confirmed that sales of Wii U games would total 16 million for the year, not 24 million as it had previously forecast. All in all, as the Wii U sells at a loss, its contribution to the bottom line was to pump the overall operating loss up to 5.8 billion; if not for that weak Yen, Nintendo might not be looking at a healthy net profit forecast.

That said, the strong Yen earlier in the financial year pounded Nintendo's profit margin, so a weak Yen now is a welcome relief. Meanwhile, Nintendo blamed "few new title releases" for poor Wii games sales. 3DS sales were generally solid, with Nintendo's "evergreen titles" - the Mario games - doing well. Even so, sales forecasts for the 3DS have dipped from 17.5 million to 15 million units. Sales estimates for the Wii have also been cut, from 5 to 4 million units.

Source: Nintendo Financials

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If this means price cut in the Deluxe edition of the Wii U then I'm going to be quite happy. I want to get a Wii U Deluxe, but I find that it's too expensive and doesn't have enough games to warrant such a price. As for the 3DS it has the same problem, not enough games for the price. Yeah you can download games, but people want more 3DS titles to play, not renditions of older games. Although this is Nintendo...

It will go up after E3, once the games announced actually start to be released. Rayman: Legends, Pikmin 3, Bayonetta 2, and a few others will sell the Wii U a lot more than the paltry amount of games currently available.

4 million is still pretty good

Capitano Segnaposto:
It will go up after E3, once the games announced actually start to be released. Rayman: Legends, Pikmin 3, Bayonetta 2, and a few others will sell the Wii U a lot more than the paltry amount of games currently available.

Heck, Nintendo already did a mini E3 a week ago where they announced Wind Waker HD and Yoshi's Yarn. I have no doubt that I'm going to be eating Ramen for a few weeks to make room in my budget for it. I just wouldn't expect anyone to rush out to buy the Wii U until some big games are really close to being released.

Also, why hasn't Nintendo learned to always launch with a 3D Mario/Mariokart/Smash Bros/Zelda game? Mario Kart 64 made me buy the N64, I honestly have no clue what made me buy the Gamecube, but I definitely bought the Wii for Brawl.

Why does every single company assume their thing is gonna be the biggest thing ever, and overshoot their sales forecasts?

Seriously, every week some company is announcing that their lowering their forecasts.

juyunseen:
Why does every single company assume their thing is gonna be the biggest thing ever, and overshoot their sales forecasts?

Seriously, every week some company is announcing that their lowering their forecasts.

Amen. I feel like this mentality is what's causing a lot of problems for the games industry in general. The companies keep pouring hundreds of millions of dollars, hoping for a COD-like success and are baffled when it doesn't happen.

Hitting a homerun is a pleasant surprise. It's good when it happens, but you dont swing for the fences every damn time and expect to do well.

juyunseen:
Why does every single company assume their thing is gonna be the biggest thing ever, and overshoot their sales forecasts?

Seriously, every week some company is announcing that their lowering their forecasts.

Over ambition and optimism I think is what goes through their minds. Companies like to set high, unrealistic standards for their products and get depressed when then can't reach them. Hey, companies do the same thing I do. :D

Mcoffey:

juyunseen:
Why does every single company assume their thing is gonna be the biggest thing ever, and overshoot their sales forecasts?

Seriously, every week some company is announcing that their lowering their forecasts.

Amen. I feel like this mentality is what's causing a lot of problems for the games industry in general. The companies keep pouring hundreds of millions of dollars, hoping for a COD-like success and are baffled when it doesn't happen.

Hitting a homerun is a pleasant surprise. It's good when it happens, but you dont swing for the fences every damn time and expect to do well.

Neronium:

juyunseen:
Why does every single company assume their thing is gonna be the biggest thing ever, and overshoot their sales forecasts?

Seriously, every week some company is announcing that their lowering their forecasts.

Over ambition and optimism I think is what goes through their minds. Companies like to set high, unrealistic standards for their products and get depressed when then can't reach them. Hey, companies do the same thing I do. :D

It's a real issue.

Overassume your COD clone, or new console's performance, and it just hurts everyone.

Mcoffey:

juyunseen:
Why does every single company assume their thing is gonna be the biggest thing ever, and overshoot their sales forecasts?

Seriously, every week some company is announcing that their lowering their forecasts.

Amen. I feel like this mentality is what's causing a lot of problems for the games industry in general. The companies keep pouring hundreds of millions of dollars, hoping for a COD-like success and are baffled when it doesn't happen.

Hitting a homerun is a pleasant surprise. It's good when it happens, but you dont swing for the fences every damn time and expect to do well.

People don't invest in a company that only wants moderate success. If you're not trying to be number one, you're not seen as competitive. More units sold also means a larger install base, which means more sales for game developers who aren't going to waste time and effort building a blockbuster game if the product it is released for is niche at best. All those developers who supported the console at launch would have been hesitant if Nintendo had only estimated a million sales.

In other words, it always pays to be optimistic.

Scribblesense:

Mcoffey:

juyunseen:
Why does every single company assume their thing is gonna be the biggest thing ever, and overshoot their sales forecasts?

Seriously, every week some company is announcing that their lowering their forecasts.

Amen. I feel like this mentality is what's causing a lot of problems for the games industry in general. The companies keep pouring hundreds of millions of dollars, hoping for a COD-like success and are baffled when it doesn't happen.

Hitting a homerun is a pleasant surprise. It's good when it happens, but you dont swing for the fences every damn time and expect to do well.

People don't invest in a company that only wants moderate success. If you're not trying to be number one, you're not seen as competitive. More units sold also means a larger install base, which means more sales for game developers who aren't going to waste time and effort building a blockbuster game if the product it is released for is niche at best. All those developers who supported the console at launch would have been hesitant if Nintendo had only estimated a million sales.

In other words, it always pays to be optimistic.

It's one thing to be optimistic, it's another to be unrealistic. I'd rather make a profit of a couple million then take a billion dollar risk that is incredibly unlikely to pay off.

Mcoffey:

Scribblesense:

Mcoffey:

Amen. I feel like this mentality is what's causing a lot of problems for the games industry in general. The companies keep pouring hundreds of millions of dollars, hoping for a COD-like success and are baffled when it doesn't happen.

Hitting a homerun is a pleasant surprise. It's good when it happens, but you dont swing for the fences every damn time and expect to do well.

People don't invest in a company that only wants moderate success. If you're not trying to be number one, you're not seen as competitive. More units sold also means a larger install base, which means more sales for game developers who aren't going to waste time and effort building a blockbuster game if the product it is released for is niche at best. All those developers who supported the console at launch would have been hesitant if Nintendo had only estimated a million sales.

In other words, it always pays to be optimistic.

It's one thing to be optimistic, it's another to be unrealistic. I'd rather make a profit of a couple million then take a billion dollar risk that is incredibly unlikely to pay off.

I wouldn't say their forecast was unrealistic. The Wii U was selling within expectations for its first month, but then dropped off drastically as soon as the holiday season ended. If there's any time to expect a bump in sales, it's Christmas.

One important factor of large, multi-billion dollar risks is they are an excellent foundation for future success. Nintendo may have more unsold product on the shelves than they want, but they have plenty of options to move that product because of the previous risk they took.

Launching a product isn't like digging a hole, but like building a skyscraper - as more games are released (and Nintendo games are always system sellers) the Wii U will look more and more valuable and eventually, hopefully, that billion-dollar risk will pay off. The only potential hurdle is the Wii U remaining unsold. I feel like I'm rambling, but hopefully that makes sense.

It's still better than the other consoles bar the Wii did at launch. And it's making them more in terms of profit than the Wii did during its launch period.

I really doubt Nintendo are all that worried. Currently, the Wii U is in that lull where the launch games are all already out, and the next wave of games is waiting to be released in the next couple of months. All consoles have that period in their launch period. The 360 went through it, the PS3 went through it. Once games like Pikmin 3, Rayman Legend, Wonderful 101 and Bayonetta 2 start coming out this year, gamers will start picking the system up in higher numbers. And hopefully, Nintendo will be able to structure the release of their big titles (Mario/Smash Bros/Monolith's RPG/Whatever Retro's working on) to keep sales up once they start kicking off again.

The 3DS had exactly the same problem, and once games started coming out for it, it started flying off the shelves. The Wii U may not be able to match the 3DS' sales figures, but I'd expect it to start selling well once the past-launch games start appearing.

It's only a matter of time before Wii U sales skyrocket back up unless the Durango or PS4 is announced to be the best thing since the PS2. Nintendo just announced a lot of upcoming titles and launch titles that we're still waiting for (Lego City: Undercover for example) finally has a release date. I've had my U since launch day so I can't really buy another one yet. Sure it's region locked but the US is getting Monster Hunter 3 soon and I don't really have any good reason to import one...yet...

Scribblesense:

Mcoffey:

Scribblesense:

People don't invest in a company that only wants moderate success. If you're not trying to be number one, you're not seen as competitive. More units sold also means a larger install base, which means more sales for game developers who aren't going to waste time and effort building a blockbuster game if the product it is released for is niche at best. All those developers who supported the console at launch would have been hesitant if Nintendo had only estimated a million sales.

In other words, it always pays to be optimistic.

It's one thing to be optimistic, it's another to be unrealistic. I'd rather make a profit of a couple million then take a billion dollar risk that is incredibly unlikely to pay off.

I wouldn't say their forecast was unrealistic. The Wii U was selling within expectations for its first month, but then dropped off drastically as soon as the holiday season ended. If there's any time to expect a bump in sales, it's Christmas.

One important factor of large, multi-billion dollar risks is they are an excellent foundation for future success. Nintendo may have more unsold product on the shelves than they want, but they have plenty of options to move that product because of the previous risk they took.

Launching a product isn't like digging a hole, but like building a skyscraper - as more games are released (and Nintendo games are always system sellers) the Wii U will look more and more valuable and eventually, hopefully, that billion-dollar risk will pay off. The only potential hurdle is the Wii U remaining unsold. I feel like I'm rambling, but hopefully that makes sense.

Yeah I definitely see what you're saying. I suppose in my analogy I wasn't referring to the Wii U specifically. There's understandably always a larger amount of risk in launching a new platform, especially one like the Wii U that focuses on peripherals rather than hardware power.

Capitano Segnaposto:
It will go up after E3, once the games announced actually start to be released. Rayman: Legends, Pikmin 3, Bayonetta 2, and a few others will sell the Wii U a lot more than the paltry amount of games currently available.

Their numbers will only go down after E3, since both Microsoft and Sony are expected to be announcing their new consoles including all the new games they come with after June 2013.

If anything they have another 4 months till then to gather some further interest and be the "star in the spotlight" (like they tried with that last Nintendo Direct) and they'll be pushed in the background after that.

But let's be honest, it's going to be another "GameCube" for them: http://www.joystiq.com/2007/11/19/year-one-gamecube-vs-wii/ instead of repeating the Wii phenomenon.

I think one major problem here is a lack of education by consumers. I was at Walmart the other day looking at the games, and it was astounding how many people thought it was just a new Wii model. I was talking to people about how ZombiU played, and I heard "so is it worth buying just the tablet controller for my Wii, then?" more than once. Many don't understand that it has better graphics, HDMI out, no friend codes, etc etc. I felt like I should have gotten a paycheck given the amount of explaining I did just standing there.

DrunkOnEstus:
I think one major problem here is a lack of education by consumers. I was at Walmart the other day looking at the games, and it was astounding how many people thought it was just a new Wii model. I was talking to people about how ZombiU played, and I heard "so is it worth buying just the tablet controller for my Wii, then?" more than once. Many don't understand that it has better graphics, HDMI out, no friend codes, etc etc. I felt like I should have gotten a paycheck given the amount of explaining I did just standing there.

This. Everyone who has played my Wii U absolutely loves it, to the point where I don't think a single person hasn't said "I've gotta get one of these". But until i explained to them what it was and how it differs from the Wii, nobody had a clue. Nintendo just needs to put it out there a little more.

Dexter111:

Capitano Segnaposto:
It will go up after E3, once the games announced actually start to be released. Rayman: Legends, Pikmin 3, Bayonetta 2, and a few others will sell the Wii U a lot more than the paltry amount of games currently available.

Their numbers will only go down after E3, since both Microsoft and Sony are expected to be announcing their new consoles including all the new games they come with after June 2013.

If anything they have another 4 months till then to gather some further interest and be the "star in the spotlight" (like they tried with that last Nintendo Direct) and they'll be pushed in the background after that.

But let's be honest, it's going to be another "GameCube" for them: http://www.joystiq.com/2007/11/19/year-one-gamecube-vs-wii/ instead of repeating the Wii phenomenon.

I highly doubt that. The new Xbox/Playstation consoles won't be released for months after their announcement (My guess, early/mid 2014 release if not later), sure they can hype them up, but Nintendo is the only one who can deliver with timely releases to their new console.

Also the Gamecube was excellent, I don't know why people use it as an insult.

Starik20X6:

DrunkOnEstus:
I think one major problem here is a lack of education by consumers. I was at Walmart the other day looking at the games, and it was astounding how many people thought it was just a new Wii model. I was talking to people about how ZombiU played, and I heard "so is it worth buying just the tablet controller for my Wii, then?" more than once. Many don't understand that it has better graphics, HDMI out, no friend codes, etc etc. I felt like I should have gotten a paycheck given the amount of explaining I did just standing there.

This. Everyone who has played my Wii U absolutely loves it, to the point where I don't think a single person hasn't said "I've gotta get one of these". But until i explained to them what it was and how it differs from the Wii, nobody had a clue. Nintendo just needs to put it out there a little more.

Indeed. Focusing on the controller has helped and hurt; it's the Wii U's defining feature and an easy sell, but it's tough to explain that it's part of a brand new console without screaming THE WII U IS A BRAND NEW CONSOLE.

To really understand the controller, you have to pick it up and play with it, just like the Wiimote, which is likely what Nintendo was depending on. The major difference between the Wii and Wii U was that the Wii was everywhere when it launched - I remember it being covered in the news constantly during its launch year, from the shortage in sales to injuries sustained from flying controllers to it being used in retirement homes. If the Wii U had inspired that kind of coverage, it would have been the runaway success (not to downplay its current success) that the Wii was.

Makes me wonder if chucking Gamepads at people on the street would make the Wii U sell better.

Capitano Segnaposto:

Dexter111:

Capitano Segnaposto:
It will go up after E3, once the games announced actually start to be released. Rayman: Legends, Pikmin 3, Bayonetta 2, and a few others will sell the Wii U a lot more than the paltry amount of games currently available.

Their numbers will only go down after E3, since both Microsoft and Sony are expected to be announcing their new consoles including all the new games they come with after June 2013.

If anything they have another 4 months till then to gather some further interest and be the "star in the spotlight" (like they tried with that last Nintendo Direct) and they'll be pushed in the background after that.

But let's be honest, it's going to be another "GameCube" for them: http://www.joystiq.com/2007/11/19/year-one-gamecube-vs-wii/ instead of repeating the Wii phenomenon.

I highly doubt that. The new Xbox/Playstation consoles won't be released for months after their announcement (My guess, early/mid 2014 release if not later), sure they can hype them up, but Nintendo is the only one who can deliver with timely releases to their new console.

Also the Gamecube was excellent, I don't know why people use it as an insult.

The Gamecube had some of my favorite games and easily my favorite controller, but it didn't sell well and had terrible third party support due to its irregular disc format (those tiny discs could only hold about 2 gbs of memory, while a standard DVD can hold about 8). It was profitable, but it wasn't a huge success.

Nintendo has had lousy third-party support since the N64 days, and its one of the hurdles they are trying to clear with the Wii U. At the moment, many 3rd parties don't seem interested in porting games to the Wii U, and if that continues when the Sony and Microsoft next-gen consoles lost the Wii U will lose steam.

As for E3, Nintendo currently has the upper hand as they are set to unveil the next 3D Mario, Zelda, and Super Smash Bros, plus games they haven't even announced yet. I don't see Microsoft or Sony stealing the show even if they announce new consoles, unless their announcements come with something unexpected and is in playable form. I think the slowdown of the Wii U following its launch will cause Microsoft and Sony to postpone launching new hardware until Holiday 2014. The 360 and PS3 are still doing well enough that they may be convinced a new generation isn't necessary.

I don't know why people assume sales of the console will increase when E3 rolls around. Announcements at E3 have never caused a significant increase in sales. Just look at the 3DS, which was in exactly the same position, had roughly the same games announced as what we're expecting for the Wii U...and didn't see any improved sales. It's when games are released, or a price is dropped, that we see an increase.

In short, don't wait for E3 for Nintendo to start selling more systems, wait for E3 to tell you WHEN Nintendo will start selling more systems.

 

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