Analyst: Xbox One Could Outship PS4 3-to-1

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Analyst: Xbox One Could Outship PS4 3-to-1

Xbox One versus PS4

According to Baird analyst Colin Sebastian, Microsoft's superior supply chain could give the Xbox an advantage over the PS4 at launch.

From what we hear the new console generation may already be doing pretty well for itself. Demand for the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One have been so high that retailers like GameStop have had to cap pre-orders as supplies for launch day consoles have begun to run low. Some in the game industry are already predicting that current pre-orders will be twice what the current console generation achieved at its own launch. Despite the popularity of both consoles at the checkout however, one analyst feels that Microsoft and the Xbox One may wind up having the advantage, even after some disastrous PR decisions.

"Our supply chain checks suggest Microsoft may have the benefit of a 2-3x unit advantage at launch compared to Sony's PS4," said Colin Sebastian, an analyst with Baird, in an investor's note. According to Sebastian, though Microsoft may have lost the "headline battle" at E3, its changes to the Xbox One's online and DRM policies have gone a long way toward appeasing consumers. That in mind, if Microsoft, as Sebastian suggests, is able to simply produce more consoles for retail than Sony, people might just buy the Xbox One because it's available, even with the $100 price difference.

On the one hand we can see Sebastian's point, especially considering that the two consoles are going to be launching around the holiday shopping season. During that time of the year there tends to be no shortage of parents and grandparents who will buy whatever looks good just to make sure little Timmy has something big and fancy under the tree come Christmas morning. That said, reports have been pointing to supply shortages on both sides and it's notable that digital retailers like Amazon still currently list the PS4 as selling better than the Xbox One. Time, it seems, will have to tell if Sebastian's predictions pan out.

Source: Forbes

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Microsoft could have a home teleportation service, it still wouldn't matter if no one gives a shit.

Isn't that because it's suppposedly much less well engineered than the PS4?

And much cheaper?

Except for Kinect.

Which apparently costs as much as the console to make...

Seems like a clever strategy to me...

StewShearer:
On the one hand we can see Sebastian's point, especially considering that the two consoles are going to be launching around the holiday shopping season. During that time of the year there tends to be no shortage of parents and grandparents who will buy whatever looks good just to make sure little Timmy has something big and fancy under the tree come Christmas morning..

Waht. I wish when growing up my parents had been willing and able to sink $500 (or one's regional equivalent) plus more for games, etc. on my pressies! What a happy little spoiled speug that would've made me.

I'm guessing Xbox one seems to have more units left because nobody fucking wants one.
If the PS4 supply is low and Xbone supply is high, that means people are buying the PS4 right?

SkarKrow:
Isn't that because it's suppposedly much less well engineered than the PS4?

And much cheaper?

Except for Kinect.

Which apparently costs as much as the console to make...

Seems like a clever strategy to me...

Don't forget that the Xbone is only shipping to about 21 countries at launch too. Microsoft might have 2-3x as many VHS players but Sony are selling to 4-5x as many countries. Obviously they are going to have a shorter supply per country.

Well yeah.
Microsoft has a huge built in fan base. Quite frankly I'd be surprised if it didn't out sell the PS4 by miles.

Teoes:

StewShearer:
On the one hand we can see Sebastian's point, especially considering that the two consoles are going to be launching around the holiday shopping season. During that time of the year there tends to be no shortage of parents and grandparents who will buy whatever looks good just to make sure little Timmy has something big and fancy under the tree come Christmas morning..

Waht. I wish when growing up my parents had been willing and able to sink $500 (or one's regional equivalent) plus more for games, etc. on my pressies! What a happy little spoiled speug that would've made me.

Hang around a GameStop (any electronics department really) at Christmas times. The sights you see will destroy your faith in humanity.

When I saw this, I literally fell off my chair laughing and was unable to breathe.

Thanks, Escapist. This is the funniest thing I've read in ages.

CriticalMiss:

SkarKrow:
Isn't that because it's suppposedly much less well engineered than the PS4?

And much cheaper?

Except for Kinect.

Which apparently costs as much as the console to make...

Seems like a clever strategy to me...

Don't forget that the Xbone is only shipping to about 21 countries at launch too. Microsoft might have 2-3x as many VHS players but Sony are selling to 4-5x as many countries. Obviously they are going to have a shorter supply per country.

Microsoft have basically given up their market in the East by not supplying them at launch I think. It's a very poor decision on their part to pretty much hand Sony that market share.

Another issue with Xbox One is that a lot of it's features don't even work outside of the US, all the TV stuff for example hasn't been confirmed for anything in the EU and UK, and most companies asked for comment have said Microsoft hadn't been in contact with them about it.

Hmm.

SkarKrow:
Another issue with Xbox One is that a lot of it's features don't even work outside of the US, all the TV stuff for example hasn't been confirmed for anything in the EU and UK, and most companies asked for comment have said Microsoft hadn't been in contact with them about it.

Hmm.

Actually they signed a deal with Sky to do some of the TV crap in the UK didn't they? That still leaves the rest of the world with non-existant features.

I'm guessing this is only in terms of the USA? Wouldn't be surprised if the XBox outsells the PS4 there. But worldwide? (Or "21 select international destinations" wide?)

Unit's Shipped do not mean Unit's sold.
/thread.

Besides, they were going on about selling like a billion units or something before the whole DRM switch.
I also wouldn't be surprised if they cut corners on production to get more units made and faster, like with the 360.
Red Ring of Death 2: Electric Boogaloo?

SkarKrow:
Isn't that because it's suppposedly much less well engineered than the PS4?

And much cheaper?

Except for Kinect.

Which apparently costs as much as the console to make...

Seems like a clever strategy to me...

> both budget tablet technology from AMD.
>> well engineered.

The hardware is a joke. There is no two ways around around it. The only reason its considered "better" now is because the current gen hardware is 7 years old.

There is no difference in engineering, both went in with the bare minimum of what they could get otherwise they might lose money because of the shaky industry.

I think it's pretty obvious Xbone will dominate United States whereas Sony will benefit from other markets, mostly Asia and Eastern Europe since they were handed to them by MS for free :)

CriticalMiss:

SkarKrow:
Another issue with Xbox One is that a lot of it's features don't even work outside of the US, all the TV stuff for example hasn't been confirmed for anything in the EU and UK, and most companies asked for comment have said Microsoft hadn't been in contact with them about it.

Hmm.

Actually they signed a deal with Sky to do some of the TV crap in the UK didn't they? That still leaves the rest of the world with non-existant features.

Did they? I didn't see that reported anywhere at all :P

And I already have Sky. It's mostly shit, glad I don't pay for it.

This just in: American product sells better in America

"shocking" said no one.

Ultratwinkie:

SkarKrow:
Isn't that because it's suppposedly much less well engineered than the PS4?

And much cheaper?

Except for Kinect.

Which apparently costs as much as the console to make...

Seems like a clever strategy to me...

> both budget tablet technology from AMD.
>> well engineered.

The hardware is a joke. There is no two ways around around it. The only reason its considered "better" now is because the current gen hardware is 7 years old.

There is no difference in engineering, both went in with the bare minimum of what they could get otherwise they might lose money because of the shaky industry.

I wrote an in depth response to this but then I remembered who you are and decided not to waste my time and effort.

He has an interesting point. I wonder if it holds up the test of time.

People here seem to forget that the mass of sales does not come from informed enthusiast gamers such as ourselves but the not so well informed masses of more causal players.
MS PR "campaign" certainly didn't help the XO, but it is yet to see if it actually damaged it beyond the enthusiast community.

EightGaugeHippo:
If the PS4 supply is low and Xbone supply is high, that means people are buying the PS4 right?

You seem to have a skewed grasp of what supply and demand is...

Microsoft has a serious viable yeild and alternative supply issue with the eSRAM memory its using in the xbone.

this has been known for some time.

so either this analyst is crap or MS is planning to sell a load of bricks.

What I think a lot of people in this thread are failing to comprehend is that "outship" does not mean outsell.
OT: I still want a fresh prince of bel air throne with my console, microsoft.

Sleekit:
Microsoft has a serious viable yeild issue with the eSRAM memory its using in the xbone.
this has been known for some time.

so either this analyst is crap or MS is planning to sell a load of bricks.

Please read the article before posting.

SkarKrow:

Ultratwinkie:

SkarKrow:
Isn't that because it's suppposedly much less well engineered than the PS4?

And much cheaper?

Except for Kinect.

Which apparently costs as much as the console to make...

Seems like a clever strategy to me...

> both budget tablet technology from AMD.
>> well engineered.

The hardware is a joke. There is no two ways around around it. The only reason its considered "better" now is because the current gen hardware is 7 years old.

There is no difference in engineering, both went in with the bare minimum of what they could get otherwise they might lose money because of the shaky industry.

I wrote an in depth response to this but then I remembered who you are and decided not to waste my time and effort.

Wait a minute. I'm confused by this. Perhaps you can help explain this to me. Soooo...

You wrote an in depth response. You then erased said response in remembrance of whom you were replying to. Then declared the in depth response a waste of your time an effort.

Uh, didn't you waste more time and effort writing, and then erasing, your in depth response? Wouldn't have been a less wasted effort just replying with the initial response in the first place and then, if you got a reply back, to just ignore it? Seems to me there's just a whole lot of waste all around.

Like the XBone.

Nuxxy:
I'm guessing this is only in terms of the USA? Wouldn't be surprised if the XBox outsells the PS4 there. But worldwide? (Or "21 select international destinations" wide?)

Its talking worldwide. What people have failed to realise is because you can log on worldwide does not mean on sale worldwide.

SkarKrow:

Ultratwinkie:

SkarKrow:
Isn't that because it's suppposedly much less well engineered than the PS4?

And much cheaper?

Except for Kinect.

Which apparently costs as much as the console to make...

Seems like a clever strategy to me...

> both budget tablet technology from AMD.
>> well engineered.

The hardware is a joke. There is no two ways around around it. The only reason its considered "better" now is because the current gen hardware is 7 years old.

There is no difference in engineering, both went in with the bare minimum of what they could get otherwise they might lose money because of the shaky industry.

I wrote an in depth response to this but then I remembered who you are and decided not to waste my time and effort.

Well I don't know who you are, nor what your problem is.

Its no secret that manufacturers can't spend the vast amounts of money they did on this gen anymore. If they go beyond what they are going to go with right now, they might never make their investment back.

It has to be cheap now, bare minimum cheap.

Its common knowledge at this point, all the problems gaming and consoles face now isn't hidden. Its only a matter of if gamers feel this sort of unsustainable business practices should continue.

Hell, you can't even get Jim sterling to stop talking about it every week.

How can this guy call himself an analyst?

Bad press, more expensive, less powerful, potential overheating issues, mandatory Big Brother, available in less than half the countries that the PS4 is available in at launch. And more people are ordering the PS4 than they're ordering the Xbone. Jesus fuckin' Christ the math is so obvious.

Revolutionary:

Sleekit:
Microsoft has a serious viable yeild issue with the eSRAM memory its using in the xbone.
this has been known for some time.

so either this analyst is crap or MS is planning to sell a load of bricks.

Please read the article before posting.

i'm not going to click through every link in a news post but just for you i did and there is zero mention of the eSRAM issue either here or there so what exactly are you getting it ?

MS has a known and very serious component supply problem.

there's is no way it will fulfil preorders at a 3 to 1 margin over the PS4 unless it knowingly ships units that will brick and while that might allow them to boast about shifting more units to both the press and the markets while offering replacements to customers at a later date (as they did with the 50% failure rate on the 360) its a damn shitty thing to do customers.

SkarKrow:
Did they? I didn't see that reported anywhere at all :P

And I already have Sky. It's mostly shit, glad I don't pay for it.

I just had a google looking for the original article and most are updated to say it was just a rumour and Sky are denying it, but that was about Sky giving out Xbones with certain subscriptions and not Sky offering TV services. They already do TV stuff through the 360 so it doesn't seem too wild to speculate that they will do something with the Xbone, though apparently nothing has been written in stone.

CriticalMiss:

SkarKrow:
Did they? I didn't see that reported anywhere at all :P

And I already have Sky. It's mostly shit, glad I don't pay for it.

I just had a google looking for the original article and most are updated to say it was just a rumour and Sky are denying it, but that was about Sky giving out Xbones with certain subscriptions and not Sky offering TV services. They already do TV stuff through the 360 so it doesn't seem too wild to speculate that they will do something with the Xbone, though apparently nothing has been written in stone.

I did see that and thats why I thought that nothing was in stone for it. It's basically doing what other devices already do for me.

Like my PC... or my PS3... _

Sleekit:

Revolutionary:

Sleekit:
Microsoft has a serious viable yeild issue with the eSRAM memory its using in the xbone.
this has been known for some time.

so either this analyst is crap or MS is planning to sell a load of bricks.

Please read the article before posting.

i'm not going to click through every link in a news post but just for you i did and there is zero mention of the eSRAM issue either here or there so what exactly are you getting it ?

MS has a known and very serious component supply problem.

there's is no way it will fulfil preorders at a 3 to 1 margin over the PS4 unless it knowingly ships units that will brick and while that might allow them to boast about shifting more units to both the press and the markets while offering replacements to customers at a later date (as they did with the 50% failure rate on the 360) its a damn shitty thing to do customers.

Was just about to post something similar myself, surely they couldn't afford another RROD fiasco on top of their bad press plus significantly more expensive console. It would kill them.

Dream on Colin, dream on.

Not many people care about the Xbone anyway.

How does a logistics advantage carry anything past the first few weeks? Both Sony and Microsoft will have a metric fuckton of preorders to fill, and it's obvious that the one with better supply lines will ship more units in a given period of time. Once the launch weeks are over, none of that matters any more.

Diablo1099:
Unit's Shipped do not mean Unit's sold.
/thread.

Major QFT.
A massive supply train means jack all if nobody buys the damn things. With the massive PR disaster that the Xbone has created with it's launch, coupled with a higher pricetag, the PS4 has a pretty good advantage for this console generation.

Diablo1099:
Unit's Shipped do not mean Unit's sold.
/thread.

It's also worth noting that it "could" outship. Also (according to a source I will give in a bit) GameStop claims they were given very few units compared to how many PS4s they were given and both Amazon and GameStop seems to have reached the limit of what they can deliver at launch.
http://www.gamezone.com/news/2013/07/23/microsoft-xbox-one-pre-orders-through-the-roof-at-gamestop

Personally I don't know what to think. I don't care enough to do a deep research to determine if this analyst is on to something or not. Maybe they really have as many consoles as they claim, maybe they will sell enough to meet their own wild expectations (this I will admit that I doubt though). I wish that for once we would wait and see before we determine who won a console war that hasn't even started yet (too idealistic, I know).

Ultratwinkie:

> both budget tablet technology from AMD.
>> well engineered.

The hardware is a joke. There is no two ways around around it. The only reason its considered "better" now is because the current gen hardware is 7 years old.

There is no difference in engineering, both went in with the bare minimum of what they could get otherwise they might lose money because of the shaky industry.

Um. How little do you know about hardware, exactly?

AMD Jaguar isn't high-end, but it's still around an i5-3xxx performance-wise, and gives more performance if the games get optimised for the large number of integer cores.

Pretty much all of AMD's APUs are decent, and produce OK results.

Though one thing I'll give you, in terms that you'll understand:
PS3 Cell CPU: very very very powerful
Intel i7 Haswell/Ivy Bridge/Sandy Bridge CPU: 1/4th to 1/3rd as powerful as Cell
AMD Trinity APU: about 1/5th as powerful as Cell
XBox PowerPC CPU: about 1/6th to 1/5th as powerful as Cell, due to bad cooling and old Xenon design

PS3 RSX GPU: shit
XBox ATi GPU: crap, about level with the PS3 GPU
PS4 GPU: HD7770 equivalent: good (can play Crysis 2 on highest on PC with a more or less decent framerate)
XBOne GPU: HD7750 equivalent: good, but about 20-30% worse than the PS4's, depending on game and effects used.

The only real innovation that console manufacturers made is that they offer much more RAM in their consoles:
PS3: 256 MB RAM+256 MB VRAM, both XDR
XBox: 512 MB shared
PS4: 8192MB shared GDDR5 (clock speeds up to 6-7GHz)
XBOne: 8192MB shared (AFAIK) GDDR3 (normal clock speeds don't exceed 3GHz for this type of VRAM)

For console games, this DOES NOT MATTER. Since portability isn't an issue, with console games you can code straight to the hardware and can "cheat" on effects.
If you wanted these consoles because they're cheap gaming-capable HTPCs and were to install a conventional OS on them, like Linux or Windows, the PS4 would be the better choice.

Both companies WILL lose money at the start, it's basically inevitable for them.

I don't really trust analysts. But seeing as the PS3 launch was a disaster, the PS4 launch could be one, too. That would also be the only way for Microsoft to get in on the parents-buying-their-kids-a-console-for-christmas business.

Without demand it doesnt matter if your supply is better.

IF no one wants to buy your product it doesnt matter if you have the best supply network in the world

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