Microsoft: Xbox One's Lifespan is 10 Years "Conservatively"

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Microsoft: Xbox One's Lifespan is 10 Years "Conservatively"

Xbox One Day One

Microsoft believes the Xbox One has enough staying power to last for over a decade.

The last console generation was a long one, clocking in at eight years now. Despite the fact that most previous console generations were significantly shorter, Microsoft is ready to keep playing the long game. According to Craig Flannagan, Microsoft Canada's Xbox director of marketing, the Xbox One has an expected lifespan of over ten years.

"Xbox One is going to start ahead, in terms of the experience we can deliver," Flannagan boasts. "And because we're built for the future, we're going to stay ahead ... And it's probably going to be a pretty long generation. We're probably here for a while because we're built for the future. This is a console that will last you conservatively a decade, if I had to put a bet down today."

It's not unreasonable to plan for another lengthy cycle, with the consoles' improvements starting to run into diminishing returns. At the same time, there's more demand than ever - Flannagan reports that Xbox One preorders are coming in at more than double the Xbox 360's numbers.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether the initial batch of consoles will even survive ten years, let alone stay relevant. The Xbox 360 was not known for its reliability - I'm not convinced that there are any original 360s in existence that haven't suffered a Red Ring of Death in the eight years since their launch - but Flannagan says he feels "great" about the Xbox One's hardware.

That ten-year timer starts in just two weeks, when the Xbox One launches on November 22.

Source: Games Industry

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But if games are struggling to get beyond 720p and in some cases (looking at you, DR3) 30FPS now, where's that going to leave the console in a few years time? Never mind 10 years, the Xbox One is going to struggle to keep up for even five at this rate.

Comparing what I've heard of the xBone's specs compared to PC hardware this makes me shiver.

Let's hope to God this trend of sub-1080p games are due to poor optimization and not the actual hardware.

And yet they're starting it off with call of duty at 720p instead of 1080p? They think it will last 10 years? A product that lasts 10 years in the tech industry? I have no words to describe this depth of hubris.

Any product in this industry staying relevant for 10 years? That sounds like some high-grade bullshit microsoft. Please don't pretend you have the specs to compete in 2020. That's just not realistic.

That estimate is as conservative as my ass is purple.

Only on Saturdays, after I've paid $300 to a Bavarian woman named Helga.

But seriously. It's coming out less powerful than $1000 PCs *now*. In 2024, oof, it's going to struggle.

I even see the PS4 struggling to stay alive 10 years so I cant really see where a console that isnt even released yet and already runs most games at 720/30FPS is going to keep up.

Hahaha! Good one Microsoft! It has no chance, one of the facebook comments nailed it; phones and tablets will have surpassed the Xbone in 5 years, nevermind 10.

PS4 will destroy Xbox this generation and Microsoft's PC OS stranglehold is going to be seriously shaken very soon with Steam OS on the horizon (and many large developers pledging to develop for it, since it's Linux based)

So honestly, nevermind the console surviving 10 years, I wonder if Microsoft will even be in a position to develop another console in 10 years. This could very well be their last.

Cognimancer:
The Xbox 360 was not known for its reliability - I'm not convinced that there are any original 360s in existence that haven't suffered a Red Ring of Death in the eight years since their launch - but Flannagan says he feels "great" about the Xbox One's hardware.

Weirdly, I was over at my girlfriends house yesterday and her brother has a working original Xbox 360. I asked him about it and he said it has never suffered an RROD in its entire lifetime. He must have just been one of the lucky ones!

I seem to recall both Sony and Microsoft saying something similar about the PS3 and 360. Although it was more like 13 years.

They may be hopeful but I think developers will start to get a bit impatient in terms of hardware capabilities like they have with the current generation. 7 or 8 years will be my bet.

Well I guess it could have a ten year lifespan... I guess it might be preserved if you don't open the box and keep it in the freezer.

Sigh... Everyone else already pointed out what I primarily wanted to say so I will merely quip that the Steambox and Smartphones may force them to rethink this strategy (a potential long shot as the likeliness that their audiences will overlap is debatable) or PC gaming becomes more popular and thus more titles are downscaled from that point to work on consoles in which case I will simply not care.

Edit: I just wanted to add for no other reason than I felt like it; The Steambox still perplexes me. It is a PC made to look like a console with a controller that will work with a normal PC and an OS that you can easily Dual-Boot with your normal PC. You also upgrade it like a normal PC. I guess the appeal comes down to price, I have no idea how much it costs though and how it will compare against a similarly specced, prebuilt PC you can install the OS on is yet to be seen.

When i read the news, this was my reaction:
image

if they are having to limit games before the consoles are even released then i dont see how they are going to last 10+ years. if nothing else my new pc shouldnt need upgrading for the next decade or so at this stage

Bullshit PR for people to buy their console, much like how they lied about this generation.

What this means is, my computer still won't need an upgrade :D Go shitty non future proof consoles :D

wombat_of_war:
if they are having to limit games before the consoles are even released then i dont see how they are going to last 10+ years. if nothing else my new pc shouldnt need upgrading for the next decade or so at this stage

This was the case last gen as well, stuff like FEAR, Crysis (five years and a change of engine later) and TF2 were super cut back right at the beginning of this generation, makes sense the multi platforms games would be the same this generation, they've only got $400 worth of hardware to play with.

As for Microsoft's comments, pull the other one, they (and Sony) said exactly the same about this gen, they've made it to eight and seven respectively. I'm expecting the life of this gen to be shorter as 4k TVs start to appear and the scale of games goes up and up.

Both consoles won't last 10 years.

The PS3 had a cell processor for christ sake and it got ousted in 5 years.

The "cutting edge" is 2005. Destroyed by 2010. In fact, possibly even destroyed by 2007 with Crysis.

How are these consoles, powered by tablet APUs, supposed to handle 10 years? How are they even going to hold up in 5? If cell couldn't save the PS3 from being obsolete in a few short years, how is AMD's bargain bin going to cope?

It won't. People have been going on about doom and gloom about this new gen and frankly I can't find a single reason not to. So far this is looking to be one gigantic mess waiting to happen. These consoles seem to be entirely lacking in future proofing.

and that is a ticking time bomb waiting to happen, and it will blow up in their faces and their wallets once they realizze they won't hold out long enough to turn a profit. By the time they do, they would need a whole new generation. Effectively meaning they have to do the same dance again to the tune of 8 billion dollars on each side making it 16 billion dollars.

They say that they will turn a profit on a few blockbusters, but now they need new IPs. publishers ran the big franchises into the ground, people are tired of it.

Lighting in a bottle? multiple times? To bring in a profit? This is their business plan? Repeated miracles from gaming jesus until they are in the green? Because that's what its looking like. Even now publishers complain about their inability to sell.

This generation is a cluster fuck and its not even started yet.

Ronack:
Bullshit PR for people to buy their console, much like how they lied about this generation.

I gotta say... The Escapist seems to be shilling quite hard for the Xbox One... They haven't reported on recent negative news about the Xbox and there's a feature for the system right on the front page. I don't see a PS4 launch titles splash screen anywhere...

fix-the-spade:
As for Microsoft's comments, pull the other one, they (and Sony) said exactly the same about this gen, they've made it to eight and seven respectively. I'm expecting the life of this gen to be shorter as 4k TVs start to appear and the scale of games goes up and up.

Just for the record, when Sony says a console will last ten years, they don't mean that they'll go ten years without releasing it's successor. They mean they'll support it for ten years. They supported the PSX with games and continued system production for ten years. They did the same with the PS2. They're going to do the same with the PS3.

And if Microsoft weren't claiming the XBone will stay relevant for ten years I would say that was what they meant here as well. They probably will support it for at least ten years, but if the best consoles available in ten years are still the XBone and PS4, we're going to have a big problem.

Xanyr:

Ronack:
Bullshit PR for people to buy their console, much like how they lied about this generation.

I gotta say... The Escapist seems to be shilling quite hard for the Xbox One... They haven't reported on recent negative news about the Xbox and there's a feature for the system right on the front page. I don't see a PS4 launch titles splash screen anywhere...

They already destroyed the xbox one. Months ago. Not that console wars matter anymore, this site is so cynical anything that isn't PC gaming is met with doom and gloom. And that's only because indies keep it afloat.

They no longer waste space for more bad news about next genconsoles, because the site is frankly tired of the modern console market. Any stories are met with indifference.

Vivi22:

Just for the record, when Sony says a console will last ten years, they don't mean that they'll go ten years without releasing it's successor.

Way back in 2007, that is exactly what Sony meant when they said the PS3's lifespan would be at least 10 years, they even expressly said that the price of it was so high because there would not be a PS4 in five or six years time, so the PS3 was more of an investment.

Of course, corporate statement are usually full of it, so here we are, PS4 time.

fix-the-spade:

Vivi22:

Just for the record, when Sony says a console will last ten years, they don't mean that they'll go ten years without releasing it's successor.

Way back in 2007, that is exactly what Sony meant when they said the PS3's lifespan would be at least 10 years, they even expressly said that the price of it was so high because there would not be a PS4 in five or six years time, so the PS3 was more of an investment.

Of course, corporate statement are usually full of it, so here we are, PS4 time.

You do realize there hasn't been a PS4 in five or six years time making that statement completely accurate right? And they really did mean that they would support the PS3 for ten years considering they compared it to their continued support of the PS2 and PSX after their successor consoles came out.

Statements such as this are usually meant with a "meh" from me. Honestly, what do we expect them to say? They're trying to sell us on the XBONE so of course they're going to make claims about it's longevity, prowess, and all that nonsense. I liken it to watching prefight interviews. Someone almost always says "I didn't come here to lose." And they say it with such conviction as though upon hearing it we were all supposed to do a double take and ask:

"Wait a minute! You didn't? Oh man! Well this changes the entire complexion of the fight because honestly, everyone here thought that you came here with every intention of losing."

MS saying: "This console will be around for a long time. Trust us," is par for the course. Even if they absolutely planned on releasing an XBOX Two 3 years from now, does anyone honestly expect that they would say as much with the XBONE having not even launched yet?

I'm getting a sense of Deja Vu. Anyone else... Oh, it seems there are a few others. Sony made similar statements about the PS3, and while I enjoyed the PS3, I doubted that claim. But I doubt this one even more. By all accounts, the Xbox One is not as strong as the PS4. And that won't last 10 years before a successor console comes out.

I think this is exactly why the whole Xbox as the center of your home concept is so stupid. Coupled with Microsodt's less than stellar history with consoles overheating, I can't say that I think keeping the system on at all times would be good for the machine.

Oh, I have a friend that has an original 360. I think it has suffered RROD, but he was able to fix it.

Hazy992:
But if games are struggling to get beyond 720p and in some cases (looking at you, DR3) 30FPS now, where's that going to leave the console in a few years time? Never mind 10 years, the Xbox One is going to struggle to keep up for even five at this rate.

Isn't that whole 720p thing just a rumor though?

I highly doubt the Xbox One can't handle that resolution when the Wii U and PS4 supposedly can.

Dragonbums:

Hazy992:
But if games are struggling to get beyond 720p and in some cases (looking at you, DR3) 30FPS now, where's that going to leave the console in a few years time? Never mind 10 years, the Xbox One is going to struggle to keep up for even five at this rate.

Isn't that whole 720p thing just a rumor though?

I highly doubt the Xbox One can't handle that resolution when the Wii U and PS4 supposedly can.

Just a rumour? Hardly.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-10-30-call-of-duty-ghosts-720p-on-xbox-one-1080p-on-ps4

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-battlefield-4-next-gen-vs-pc-face-off-preview

http://www.escapistmagazine.com/forums/read/7.833287-Dead-Rising-3-Locked-at-720p-30-FPS-Capcom-Confirms

http://gamingbolt.com/killer-instinct-dev-anything-that-hinders-60-fps-is-removed-or-optimized-praises-xbox-one-cloud

The Wii U version of COD Ghosts runs at a lower resolution than either and I believe has smaller teams.

EDIT: Wii U version runs at 880x720

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=707843

Hazy992:

Dragonbums:

Hazy992:
But if games are struggling to get beyond 720p and in some cases (looking at you, DR3) 30FPS now, where's that going to leave the console in a few years time? Never mind 10 years, the Xbox One is going to struggle to keep up for even five at this rate.

Isn't that whole 720p thing just a rumor though?

I highly doubt the Xbox One can't handle that resolution when the Wii U and PS4 supposedly can.

Just a rumour? Hardly.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-10-30-call-of-duty-ghosts-720p-on-xbox-one-1080p-on-ps4

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-battlefield-4-next-gen-vs-pc-face-off-preview

http://www.escapistmagazine.com/forums/read/7.833287-Dead-Rising-3-Locked-at-720p-30-FPS-Capcom-Confirms

http://gamingbolt.com/killer-instinct-dev-anything-that-hinders-60-fps-is-removed-or-optimized-praises-xbox-one-cloud

The Wii U version of COD Ghosts runs at a lower resolution than either and I believe has smaller teams.

EDIT: Wii U version runs at 880x720

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=707843

Personally I'll believe it when the console comes out.

I'm not saying you are lying or anything, but I can hardly trust what comes out of the mouths of any devs, game journalists, or publishers nowadays. It's easy to simply put a game that runs at 720p on a system and say the system can't do it.

With the Wii U being out I can believe that (although didn't I hear Pikmin 3 ran at 1080p? So I don't think it's incapable at that.)

However until X1 and PS4 come out I'm still skeptical about it.

Dragonbums:

Hazy992:
But if games are struggling to get beyond 720p and in some cases (looking at you, DR3) 30FPS now, where's that going to leave the console in a few years time? Never mind 10 years, the Xbox One is going to struggle to keep up for even five at this rate.

Isn't that whole 720p thing just a rumor though?

I highly doubt the Xbox One can't handle that resolution when the Wii U and PS4 supposedly can.

Its COD ghosts, and that was shown to run like ass on any platform.

Even total biscuit and his dual titans couldn't run the fucking thing at 60 FPS. So now because of COD everyone is hyping on about 1080p, when most likely it will revert to 720p in a few years.

These new games aren't exactly optimized. IT will be some time before developers get a hang of it.

Ten years ago, cutting-edge PCs were running Pentium 4 processors.

If anyone here is still getting productive use out of a P4 (without having converted it to a Linux box or something), I'll eat my hat.

Dragonbums:

Hazy992:

Dragonbums:

Isn't that whole 720p thing just a rumor though?

I highly doubt the Xbox One can't handle that resolution when the Wii U and PS4 supposedly can.

Just a rumour? Hardly.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-10-30-call-of-duty-ghosts-720p-on-xbox-one-1080p-on-ps4

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-battlefield-4-next-gen-vs-pc-face-off-preview

http://www.escapistmagazine.com/forums/read/7.833287-Dead-Rising-3-Locked-at-720p-30-FPS-Capcom-Confirms

http://gamingbolt.com/killer-instinct-dev-anything-that-hinders-60-fps-is-removed-or-optimized-praises-xbox-one-cloud

The Wii U version of COD Ghosts runs at a lower resolution than either and I believe has smaller teams.

EDIT: Wii U version runs at 880x720

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=707843

Personally I'll believe it when the console comes out.

I'm not saying you are lying or anything, but I can hardly trust what comes out of the mouths of any devs, game journalists, or publishers nowadays. It's easy to simply put a game that runs at 720p on a system and say the system can't do it.

With the Wii U being out I can believe that (although didn't I hear Pikmin 3 ran at 1080p? So I don't think it's incapable at that.)

However until X1 and PS4 come out I'm still skeptical about it.

Well a developer isn't going to lie about it being only 720p, that's not a desirable thing to have to admit. Call of Duty especially where Xbox is seen as the de facto platform for that game.

This isn't just developers saying this either. Outlets like Digital Foundry have confirmed it.

So in other words, expect video game innovation to be held back once again by console technology bottlenecks for the NEXT ten years as well. Fucking brilliant.

Honestly, in ten years both consoles will probably be being outsold by new platforms, so I doubt they'll be holding back the industry for long.

You could also probably get a bargain PC that runs better than them in ten years.

I can see this being true if they go an all digital and all streaming route in the next 5 years. The hardware doesn't have to match PC specs in 10 years, it just has to be able to stream from the servers that are actually processing the game in 10 years. That is already possible, they just need to build up the infrastructure for a while. Specs of the XBone and PS4 don't matter if none of the actual processing/rendering is happening on that machine.

With the Xbox 360 having an RROD record that some professional estimates claim to be as high as 54.2%, I hope Craig Flannagan didn't bet anything more than a dollar because he is so going to lose.

In 3 years, everything about this console will be obsolete let alone 10. And that is just for the XBOX One entertainment system. As far as the hardware is concerned, no way but here is what I think as far as hardware is concerned.

Here is my guess on how Microsoft got this ass of a service life estimate:

1.) Totally ignore tech industry trends.
2.) List down all Microsoft Xbox One Electronic Components (because cases are aesthetic and don't count)
3.) Get the datasheets of all these components
4.) Check estimated component lifespan (Mean Time Before Failure)
5.) Find out the longest lasting component, (which happens to be a Surface-mounted LED; 10 years)
6.) Ignore the weakest link component (shortest life; which could be the PSU, some capacitors, FETs or hard drive)
7.) Fire or reprimand staff who calls this press release plan crazy
8.) Make draft BS statement with BS bet to convince the more intelligent sheep
9.) Launch press release
10.) Update CV

As a PC gamer, one of my quality standards has always been to make a gaming rig that can work meritoriously well for 5 years before requiring an overhaul or component replacement. I can barely make it last that long as the PSU, Motherboard or optical drive will usually fail first at some point (while the CPU and Memory sticks (Corsair) last the longest in my experience; mine are past 5 years). And this is from using the components with the best reviews from newegg (4-5 eggs).

I cannot imagine that a console built with budget components in mind will make it past 6 or even 7 years and with Microsoft's track record, I can't even begin to imagine how. All of your capacitors will have to be solid-state, all contacts of most components have to be gold-plated to resist corrosion (high humidity tropical countries) and the switches will have to be linkageless (or contactless hall-effect sensors) to resist mechanical wear (same for controllers' analogue sticks) and your PCB has to be solid state and encapsulated to prevent tracks from lifting due to stress and from parts corroding in tropical countries. Heat dissipation will have to be beyond excellent to reduce thermal shock. Motors will have to be completely encapsulated as well. And the Blu-ray laser diode and lens has to be stellar and dirt resistant. I can imagine this list goes on and on but you get the point.

So 10 years!? Maybe if it wasn't used.

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