Analyst Predicts PlayStation 4 Will Outsell Xbox One

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Analyst Predicts PlayStation 4 Will Outsell Xbox One

PS4 and Xbox One

Analyst firm IHS predicts that the PlayStation 4 will outsell the Xbox One over the next four years by a margin of more than ten million units.

Neither the Xbox One nor the PlayStation 4 are on the market yet, but that doesn't mean it's too early to start talking about who's going to "win" the next round of the console wars. According to global information firm IHS, Sony appears to have the edge, at least over the next four years, largely due to the company's "wider geographical brand allegiance" and what it believes will be only "a small amount of defections between Sony and Microsoft."

IHS expects the PS4 will dominate in Europe, the U.K. and Japan, while the Xbox One will be the stronger performer in the U.S. Sony also scored points for bringing the PS4 in at a considerably lower price than the Xbox One and for positioning it first and foremost as a games console, which the firm said "will influence the choice of some early adopters." Microsoft, however, got the nod for offering "more formidable [exclusives] for a wider set of gamers, especially in the opening launch period."

Year-end numbers for 2013 are quite close, as IHS predicted that Sony will sell 2.4 million PS4 consoles while Microsoft will move 2.2 million Xbox One units. By the end of 2017, however, IHS believes that picture will have changed rather dramatically: It projects PS4 sales of 49 million units, compared to Xbox One sales of 38 million units. "IHS believes that Sony's wider geographical brand allegiance - especially across continental Europe and Japan - will be decisive in allowing PS4 to outsell Xbox One on a global basis by the end of 2017," the firm stated.

Four years is an awfully long span over which to make sales predictions for products that aren't even on the market yet, but that's what IHS does and, believe it or not, there's more to this business than just guessing. Agree? Disagree? I'm staying well clear of the whole thing, but feel free to discuss!

Source: VG247

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Pretty much what I expect too. Both will sell millions but I see PS4 selling more.

But all I can say for 100% certainty is PS4 will be the dominate console in Japan, because there would need to be a major problem with the PS4 for that to change.

Well, it's not coming from anti-Microsoft analyst Rick Sherlund, so I'm inclined to believe them. Even though Sony and Microsoft have adopted the same anti-consumer policies, the PS4 is cheaper and will be introduced into more initial markets than the XB1.

I'd like if they had taken the Wii U into account for 2017 predictions. I bet it will outsell the PS4 in Japan.

It's cheaper, more powerful and available in more countries. Of course it will outsell the XBone!

I'm going with the opposite of whatever Michael Pachter says.

Without knowing that, I would guess that this is accurate. You can't have the world's most powerful backlash and not feel it.

Yeah, well my coin predicts that they'll both sell about the same number of copies.

I trust my coin more than I trust analysts.

Do people actually get paid for making theese predictions?

Because i could have guessed that much for free.

I am more curious about the switch over rate from this gen to next gen. And ultimately it won't matter too much who sells more units. I wonder if this accounts for the inevitable price drops. $100 doesn't seem like that much of a difference though it did hurt sony upon the initial launch of PS3, they held up well over the years.

Well duh. The PS4 is selling in more territories than the XB1. Common sense really. Dont care about total global sales, i want to see a sales release for territories that the PS4/XB1 are both sold it.

I think Microsoft has screwed up enough that predicting a comfortable PS4 supremacy doesn't exactly take advanced degrees, at least over the first year. Plotting that out over four years seems like less of a sure thing, though- a lot will come down to the games. Microsoft is putting a lot of chips on its launch titles, and ID@XBox might eventually see MS more on a par with Sony on the indie front- if it can get past its history of mistreatment of indie developers.

I still think Sony's got the better hand; I just wouldn't stake money on specific numbers over four years.

I'm sorry, but when I read articles from these analysts, it always bugs me that they tend to extend the term "U.S market" into "pretty much all of North America." I mean, come on: we may not be the consumer powerhouse that the United States is, but Canada has its own distinct market preferences. And poor Mexico just gets forgotten completely, as if they don't buy anything at all.

Fuck sleeping with the elephant: I want a bed of my own.

OT: I wonder if these analyses take into consideration brand loyalty. I know that's not exactly a quantifiable point of measurement, but it really is a big deal, especially where early adopters are concerned. There are people who are going to buy an Xbox One just because they have an Xbox 360, and people who are going to buy a PlayStation 4 just because they have a PS3. I'd be interested to know exactly what kind of factors these analysts consider when making their predictions.

4 years is a long time and just like it took 1 major screwup for microsoft to give "first blood" to sony, it would only take 1 big sony fiasco to even things out.

Doesnt help the Xbone that MS' incoming CEO is head hunting the Xbox division.

Although its good to hear that i'll eventually have a 5th version of my childhood distraction, theres nothing i want from the PS4 for now, im really digging the PSVitaTv eventual US release

(My thought pattern is indicated by added numbered asterisks.)

Andy Chalk:

Analyst firm IHS predicts that the PlayStation 4 will outsell the Xbox One *1 over the next four years *2 by a margin of more than ten million units. *3

*1: Duh.
*2: Well, let's not make wild assumptions.
*3: And "we" didn't. Isn't 10 million (or 5 million) the margin of PS3 sales over Xbox 360 sales?

The more perplexing question is whether or not the Wii U will score about twice the sales of the lower-selling advanced console - like last time - or even come out on top this time around. But hey, these things are usually profitable anyways.

PS4 should outsell on the virtue of not being a X1 :P

Xman490:
(My thought pattern is indicated by added numbered asterisks.)

Andy Chalk:

Analyst firm IHS predicts that the PlayStation 4 will outsell the Xbox One *1 over the next four years *2 by a margin of more than ten million units. *3

*1: Duh.
*2: Well, let's not make wild assumptions.
*3: And "we" didn't. Isn't 10 million (or 5 million) the margin of PS3 sales over Xbox 360 sales?

The more perplexing question is whether or not the Wii U will score about twice the sales of the lower-selling advanced console - like last time - or even come out on top this time around. But hey, these things are usually profitable anyways.

The last time I checked, PS3 and 360 were neck and neck globally. With the PS3 having just a few hundred thousand more (these numbers were in terms of millions) than the 360. It basically came down to the fact that the 360 had sold nearly twice as many in the US, but the PS3 sold nearly twice as well everywhere else. Last time I saw preorder numbers for the US, the PS4 had a good lead of about 200,000 units.

So, unless something has drastically changed, I see the PS4 and Xbox One selling roughly equally as well, or the PS4 having a slight lead, in the US. As for the rest of the world, I don't think Xbox One has a chance.

Honestly, having seen the numbers, I see why Microsoft only seemed to care about the US. Only the US really cared about the 360.

I'm not surprised that the PS4 is predicted to sell more, I am surprised that it's predicted to sell more in the UK. This gen the UK was more Xbox dominated than PS3 dominated, and I don't really think that at this point the Xbox One is considered as much as Satan's Console as it was in June.

2.4 million to 2.2 million by year end? That's it? Considering everything that's taken place so far, combined with the cheaper price tag and better hardware on the PS4 it seems like Sony should achieve a significant lead out of the starting gate. I would think Xbox should start catching up when existing Playstation owners start purchasing it. Unless there's a significant reason not to eventually many among the 'hardcore' gamer crowd is going to own both consoles, so they can get in on all the exclusives. After a slow start that's basically how the PS3 caught up isn't it?

Andy Chalk:

Year-end numbers for 2013 are quite close, as IHS predicted that Sony will sell 2.4 million PS4 consoles while Microsoft will move 2.2 million Xbox One units. By the end of 2017, however, IHS believes that picture will have changed rather dramatically: It projects PS4 sales of 49 million units, compared to Xbox One sales of 38 million units. "IHS believes that Sony's wider geographical brand allegiance - especially across continental Europe and Japan - will be decisive in allowing PS4 to outsell Xbox One on a global basis by the end of 2017," the firm stated.

He's seems to be putting quite a bit of stock in Japan for non handheld console sales. I've heard they aren't seen as quite the powerhouse of console sales that they may have been in the past. I think it was Sony who moved them to a "tier 2" country as a result of lower predictions for sales(partially due to certain Japanese games not being ready for the console's release, I think... I'm rather tired.)

Anywho, it's just surprising to hear someone mention Japan as a key demographic while others believe Japan's console sales potential is less appealing right now. It'll be interesting to hear about total units sold the when it comes out, could just be that Japan has less of an early adoption demographic(As delaying the console for a few games would imply).

To bust out the cliche, in the end, it's all about the games. If Microsoft ends up having the must-have exclusives, they will win. If Sony does, the opposite will be true, regardless of how much either of them will bungle or have bungled their respective launches.

This will most likely due to the PlayStation consoles usually having an audience that has tastes in both Japanese style of games as well as North American. The PS consoles usually have way more sleeper exclusive hits in North America due to the PS Brand being more open with localizing Japanese games in general.

The Japanese console market broke into America.
The American console market can't break into Japan.

If Nintendo localized more titles they'd sell more consoles.

Oh my god, why is this even a newsworthy story?! It takes no braincells to see that the PS4 will appeal to more people due to lower pricepoint and higher specs.

Disregarding fanboyism, disregarding exclusivity, there would be no reason at all to get an XBONE under such conditions. Having said that, I frankly don't care about either...as the only games I care about (thus far) will also come to PC (Witcher 3, Watch Dogs, and the maybe ill-fated DA3).

Seracen:
Oh my god, why is this even a newsworthy story?! It takes no braincells to see that the PS4 will appeal to more people due to lower pricepoint and higher specs.

Disregarding fanboyism, disregarding exclusivity, there would be no reason at all to get an XBONE under such conditions. Having said that, I frankly don't care about either...as the only games I care about (thus far) will also come to PC (Witcher 3, Watch Dogs, and the maybe ill-fated DA3).

Agreed. On a personal note, this gen will be dedicated to the PC for me. More exclusives, better specs, and more services.

Andy Chalk:
Four years is an awfully long span over which to make sales predictions for products that aren't even on the market yet, but that's what IHS does and, believe it or not, there's more to this business than just guessing. Agree? Disagree? I'm staying well clear of the whole thing, but feel free to discuss!

Disagree. I'm pretty sure they're just guessing.

Financial analysts and technology pundits have a terrible track record. Remember when the iPhone came out, and the industry analysts said it would be a novelty niche item that would hardly sell any units, and Apple would have its lunch eaten by the likes of Nokia and BlackBerry? Yeah.

Analyst gets the Captain Obvious award.

No but really who hasn't thought this ever since E3?

I have a hard time believing an analysis that says that the Xbox one will have better exclusives(traditionally the deciding factor in the console wars) while also predicting PS4 domination.

I'm going to make the prediction that Microsoft sells the Xbone, then the company that gets it ruins it even more, and by the next generation everyone has either moved to PC or gone with the PS4. It's not as safe a bet as this company's, but if I'm right I would gladly accept whatever these guys get for their salary.

MinionJoe:
Well, it's not coming from anti-Microsoft analyst Rick Sherlund, so I'm inclined to believe them. Even though Sony and Microsoft have adopted the same anti-consumer policies, the PS4 is cheaper and will be introduced into more initial markets than the XB1.

And their library doesn't have near as many manly man games being advertised. Knack, FF, KH3. As compared to Ryse and Titanfall being the main ones for ONE. Though what's sad about Titanfall Microsoft lost them one more sale by putting it on the 360. Other then that game which seems to be trying to break the standard sci fi shooter mold I've no interest in the Xbone. Ryse looks like it wants to be God of War with a human too much and quite frankly if you insist on shoving ultra realism in my face you've instantly turned me off.

Daaaah Whoosh:
I'm going to make the prediction that Microsoft sells the Xbone, then the company that gets it ruins it even more, and by the next generation everyone has either moved to PC or gone with the PS4. It's not as safe a bet as this company's, but if I'm right I would gladly accept whatever these guys get for their salary.

So does no one seriously count Nintendo anymore? Even after they released two devices that devastated everything else last generation?

so the cheaper more powerful gaming console with a history of dominance in Europe and the east will do well in Europe and the east. where as the frat boys cod and nfl machine will sell well in america, like the last iteration... shocker.

these guys get paid for coming out with this?

KazeAizen:

Daaaah Whoosh:
I'm going to make the prediction that Microsoft sells the Xbone, then the company that gets it ruins it even more, and by the next generation everyone has either moved to PC or gone with the PS4. It's not as safe a bet as this company's, but if I'm right I would gladly accept whatever these guys get for their salary.

So does no one seriously count Nintendo anymore? Even after they released two devices that devastated everything else last generation?

When did that happen? A lot of Wiis were sold, but not many people bought games for them. Not really a great success. And the Wii U looks to be a total disaster.

As for the DS, nobody else was really seriously competing in the handheld space. Sony tried, but the failure is almost 100% on Sony screwing up the execution of its handheld platform. But yeah, I reckon Nintendo is pretty much done for in the console space - it will retain a foothold in handhelds for the near future, though.

And in other obvious news...

It's going to be hard for MS to recover from such a massive PR backlash. Coupled with a higher price point and fewer markets it would take literally the best games ever made for it to outsell the PS4.

Aardvaarkman:

KazeAizen:

Daaaah Whoosh:
I'm going to make the prediction that Microsoft sells the Xbone, then the company that gets it ruins it even more, and by the next generation everyone has either moved to PC or gone with the PS4. It's not as safe a bet as this company's, but if I'm right I would gladly accept whatever these guys get for their salary.

So does no one seriously count Nintendo anymore? Even after they released two devices that devastated everything else last generation?

When did that happen? A lot of Wiis were sold, but not many people bought games for them. Not really a great success. And the Wii U looks to be a total disaster.

As for the DS, nobody else was really seriously competing in the handheld space. Sony tried, but the failure is almost 100% on Sony screwing up the execution of its handheld platform. But yeah, I reckon Nintendo is pretty much done for in the console space - it will retain a foothold in handhelds for the near future, though.

Not really a great success? If you are going on the sales numbers of the Wii it was an out of the park home run. Nintendo made bank off of it. The Wii U is having a slow start but hey another platform they released had a slow start too and that one turned into a juggernaut.

Yes I'm talking about the 3DS. Not the original DS. Nintendo isn't as done as people say they are in the console space.

II have to agree with this unless Titanfall becomes as big as Halo 2, which it won't unless it takes actual skill to do well at, unlike CoD or the last 2 Halo games.

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