Pachter Predicts PlayStation Domination

 Pages 1 2 NEXT
 

Pachter Predicts PlayStation Domination

Michael Pachter in Pach Attack

Michael Pachter expects that the PlayStation 4 will edge out the Xbox One in the next round of the console wars, but says that in the end it might not matter.

The next generation of consoles is upon us, and that means it's time to start arguing. And nobody kicks off an argument like Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter, a man of many opinions who isn't afraid to share them. Speaking at the London Games Conference, he gave the next-gen console crown to the PlayStation 4 by a narrow margin over the Xbox One, saying he expects the PS4 will move 100-120 million units over its lifetime, while the Xbox One will manage 90-110 million.

The PS4 will come out on top, he said, because of its price advantage and the simple fact that gamers aren't actually interested in Kinect, which Microsoft is betting heavily on with the Xbox One. He also said, however, that the TV functionality could prove to be a "killer app" for the Xbox One, particularly if it can offer subsidies on service.

But while he thinks the Xbox One and PlayStation 4 will keep it close, he described the poor Wii U as "toast." "We think 30 million is where it is set," he said. "If you are a Nintendo fan bitching about my opinion on Wii U, stop, put your money where your mouth is and buy a Wii U."

Interesting advice, although it might not matter in the end, as Pachter also believes that this console generation will be the last of its kind. "Consoles may not be relevant in 10 years," he said. "We have expanded the market beyond the hardcore console owner. We now have ten times the audience over the internet, six times the audience over mobile. And I think one day you'll get to play any game, anywhere on any device."

Source: Develop

Permalink

Crap, Pachter is rooting for Sony.

Sony is DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!

"The simple fact that gamers aren't actually interested in Kinect.... He also said, however, that the TV functionality could prove to be a "killer app" for the Xbox One" that kind of doesn't make sense to me. I mean if tv functionality is a killer app (Btw, what the fuck does that mean?) but Kinect doesn't interest any gamers... Does that mean he expects people to navigate the xbone (I still like that name) with the controller?

I think the only way anything other than gaming will happen on that console, is with the Kinect. Without Kinect it looks like a pure chore to use an xbone.

(I just got my typing interrupted twice by my phone being sent to the Google play store, grrr)

It seems I'm in the minority when I think this generation of consoles will sell less consoles than the previous one.

Also, the generation started last year.

Courtesy of The Escapist:

Pachter predicts no more new consoles...back in 2009.

March 24, 2009:
"I think we've seen the last generation of consoles," Pachter said at the GamesBeat conference today. What Pachter saw in his crystal ball was this: Nintendo might release an upgraded Wii with HD and more storage, but Sony and Microsoft probably won't release another console. That's because there's just no more money in it, and third parties won't want it either."

Broken clock...right twice a day...Pachter, go take a long walk off a short plank.

So bet everything on the WiiU; cheers for the tip, Mike.

Wait - TV functionality is a 'killer app' on a console that, y'know, needs a television in order to be used?

...huh.

Some of what he's saying has some sense in it; but that's not coming from him, we've all been saying - or at least discussing - those things (increasing irrelevance of console, prevalemce of phone/tablet games). Only he gets paid for it.

FizzyIzze:
Courtesy of The Escapist:

Pachter predicts no more new consoles...back in 2009.

March 24, 2009:
"I think we've seen the last generation of consoles," Pachter said at the GamesBeat conference today. What Pachter saw in his crystal ball was this: Nintendo might release an upgraded Wii with HD and more storage, but Sony and Microsoft probably won't release another console. That's because there's just no more money in it, and third parties won't want it either."

Broken clock...right twice a day...Pachter, go take a long walk off a short plank.

He changes his predictions day-to-day; that's his paying job. He's allowed to be wrong. But he's mostly right.

rasputin0009:

FizzyIzze:
snip

He changes his predictions day-to-day; that's his paying job. He's allowed to be wrong. But he's mostly right.

I looked into a comparison of his past predictions, and you're right, he is right (kinda) most of the time. But in this case I think he's blowing smoke up all our collective asses. The consoles haven't even hit the streets yet.

Strangely though, he was right about the Wii U in terms of sales, I guess. And that was practically six months before it was in stores. I was sure it was going to dominate last Christmas as it was the only game in town, so to speak. I had assumed that the masses would go out in search of something shiny and new for the holidays but it just didn't happen. At least it didn't happen in comparison to Wii sales.

Uh oh, better switch to Xbone. Pachter is a jinx

He's got a point though, consoles, phones, PCs are getting a lot more homogenous. While each might still exist in the future, the biggest differentiation between each will be what corporations declare exclusive content - software will be able to run on anything, but because people are dumb they will simply prevent it sometimes for money.

TiberiusEsuriens:
He's got a point

He doesn't have a point. Nothing he says is his opinion. He reads gaming forums and and then spouts whatever the popular opinion is. Real analysts have predicted this months ago and this tosser is coming out with his "prediction" a week before the next-gen launch.

He will be wrong...and guess what his consequence for being wrong is!?

NOTHING!!!!

That's the problem...

I think it's funny that people often point to a future rise of PC gaming putting an end to console wars. You know what happens when PC gaming rises? More debate about which OS is best. It will swap one war for another, because people have a slavish need to defend their personal choices and force their opinions on strangers that truly have no affect on their lives.

Adam Jensen:

TiberiusEsuriens:
He's got a point

He reads gaming forums and and then spouts whatever the popular opinion is.

First real analysis do that. It's no different than the twitter analysis that's used to estimate movie attendance the day of the opening, and it's no different than looking at the edits on wikipedia to estimate who's going to win an election. There is flaws in any analysis, but that doesn't make it not an analysis.

Second an analyst should never give you their opinion. They give you the opinion of the data, and never their own.

Patcher is still different, and wrong. He's on record as having made stuff up for the purpose of getting himself attention. The moment an analyst does that they are no longer an analyst. They are an attention troll, and nothing more. He might be right, but he might be doing it solely for the attention to make himself more money. Doing this even once taints the validity of any analysis he's ever done.

The part of this "analysis" that is trolling is just about everything after who he thinks is going to "win". Trolling Nintendos fan base when he should be explaining why the 3DS is a success in spite of his Trolling in the past, and so on. Instead he's Trolling Nintendo fans regarding the Wii U, but I guarantee you that if Nintendo gets their stuff together and rights their ship regarding the Wii U he won't explain how he got it wrong. He'll just go to trolling something else. He also needs to explain why he still thinks that "Mobile" is a valid platform given that the 3DS isn't dead.

I would be interested in an analysis that actually showed the number of gamers on the mobile platforms out there. At this point they're just looking at all the Android and iPhone users and saying "Look at our install base". I want to see that, and the yearly attach rates coming out of the analysts mouth before I hear another "Gamings all going to mobile" nonsense analysis that ignores the real work needed to make that claim.

rasputin0009:

FizzyIzze:
Courtesy of The Escapist:

Pachter predicts no more new consoles...back in 2009.

March 24, 2009:
"I think we've seen the last generation of consoles," Pachter said at the GamesBeat conference today. What Pachter saw in his crystal ball was this: Nintendo might release an upgraded Wii with HD and more storage, but Sony and Microsoft probably won't release another console. That's because there's just no more money in it, and third parties won't want it either."

Broken clock...right twice a day...Pachter, go take a long walk off a short plank.

He changes his predictions day-to-day; that's his paying job. He's allowed to be wrong. But he's mostly right.

He's only "mostly right" if you use the most generous interpretation of "right". As in "technically, 3 years after he said it, what he said might happen"

His analysis is really only about 50% correct during the period when it's of any use at all. Hell, it'd be better if he were *wrong* more often than he is, because then at least what he said would be of some use in determining what to avoid. As is though, using Patcher for investment advice, in either direction, is worse than flipping a coin -- because at least a coin won't attempt to troll you as it predicts.

http://nintendoenthusiast.com/forums/discussion/1110/michael-pachter-prediction-accuracy-thread/p1

Some data on how many times he's right and wrong.

Notice that two of the correct predicitons are stuff like: GTA IV will sell well and Guitar Hero will make money...

We will see, i expect Sony will sell loads, as will MS. Sony needs to do well as they said there will be no PS5 if the PS4 doesnt do that well. Sony is also opening in more areas than MS, no idea why MS chose to limit its territories. Anyway I think both companies will do well, and both will have a next, next gen in around 8 years time. I had the PS1 and PS2, then Xbox and 360. May just pick up a PS3 and play their huge back catalog and leave the next gen for a year or two as none of the games seems to grab my attention and make it worth the price of a next gen console.

If Michael Pachter told me it was raining, and my head was getting wet, I'd look up just to make sure somebody wasn't pissing on me. I don't trust that guy at all; he's often wrong, and many of his "predictions" are geared towards manipulating the market for his customers.

You know you've stuffed up when Michael Pachter can read the community better than the console maker....

*cough*sensationalist*cough*headline

the PS4 will move 100-120 million units over its lifetime, while the Xbox One will manage 90-110 million

Selling 10% more units, possibly even 10% less, can hardly be referred to as "domination".

I know everyone hates this guy here, but I gotta be honest.

"If you are a Nintendo fan bitching about my opinion on Wii U, stop, put your money where your mouth is and buy a Wii U."

That line made me laugh.

Anyway, I'm not certain about the overall sales. I don't think either console will hit 100 million, though I think both would love to compete with the PS2 for best selling console ever. And honestly, I really don't think Xbox One will be even close to PS4 in global sales. Maybe in US sales.

so, looks like Sony is boned then. Pachter's problem is that he's essentially a curse to people. His predictions tend to turn out wrong due to the exact opposite happening.

Tiamat666:
*cough*sensationalist*cough*headline

the PS4 will move 100-120 million units over its lifetime, while the Xbox One will manage 90-110 million

Selling 10% more units, possibly even 10% less, can hardly be referred to as "domination".

Yeah, especially since those numbers don't reach the PS2's. I can't help but feel this gen isn't going to expand, but instead contract. And that's not good.

el_kabong:
I think it's funny that people often point to a future rise of PC gaming putting an end to console wars. You know what happens when PC gaming rises? More debate about which OS is best. It will swap one war for another, because people have a slavish need to defend their personal choices and force their opinions on strangers that truly have no affect on their lives.

Well said. No matter what people like to be on the winning team. There needs to be a winner,and there needs to be a loser for the winner to laugh at. It's just the way things are. If not consoles we would be bragging about graphic cards and chips, and RAM. Which we pretty much are. None the less, I'd give Sony the edge since they're hitting more markets, but you could say that MS has the focus on their limited markets as well. Failure is possible on both fronts, yet success is just as that much higher. The time is upon us.....

medv4380:

Adam Jensen:

TiberiusEsuriens:
He's got a point

He reads gaming forums and and then spouts whatever the popular opinion is.

First real analysis do that. It's no different than the twitter analysis that's used to estimate movie attendance the day of the opening, and it's no different than looking at the edits on wikipedia to estimate who's going to win an election. There is flaws in any analysis, but that doesn't make it not an analysis.

But he doesn't actually analyze anything. He just says "oh, this is the popular consensus on the internet, and some real analysts have predicted this and that, so I better do the same".

Dude has no special "magic" insight.

He was JUST claiming the new Xbox would come out on top.
That was before Microsoft actually unveiled the trainwreck that is the Xbone, but still, he's basically behind the curve on MY predictions.

We know the same stuff he does.
Everyone with half a brain can tell you the PS4 is going to steamroll the Xbone and that the Wii U is dysfunctional. That's just glaringly obvious at this point.

Full Metal Bolshevik:
It seems I'm in the minority when I think this generation of consoles will sell less consoles than the previous one.

Also, the generation started last year.

debatable. considering power of WiiU you coudl easily attribute it to current gen (PS3, Xbox360). If anything, WiiU is attempt to emulate current consoles way too late in the cycle.

el_kabong:
I think it's funny that people often point to a future rise of PC gaming putting an end to console wars. You know what happens when PC gaming rises? More debate about which OS is best. It will swap one war for another, because people have a slavish need to defend their personal choices and force their opinions on strangers that truly have no affect on their lives.

But OS wars are so much mroe fun. at least there you dont have a huge elephant in the room that puts the war seem like kids bickering.

Strazdas:

Full Metal Bolshevik:
It seems I'm in the minority when I think this generation of consoles will sell less consoles than the previous one.

Also, the generation started last year.

debatable. considering power of WiiU you coudl easily attribute it to current gen (PS3, Xbox360). If anything, WiiU is attempt to emulate current consoles way too late in the cycle.

Not debatalbe since generation comes from age, not power.

1 year is not a big difference, hence WiiU belongs to the 8th generation. And even in power it's a considerable upgrade since it can run 1080p 60fps, unlike previous consoles.

Adam Jensen:

TiberiusEsuriens:
He's got a point

He doesn't have a point. Nothing he says is his opinion. He reads gaming forums and and then spouts whatever the popular opinion is. Real analysts have predicted this months ago and this tosser is coming out with his "prediction" a week before the next-gen launch.

You sound like a very angry or disgruntled individual. Go eat your favorite dinner and feel better.

I love this guy. I don't always agree with him and he says some dumb stuff from time to time but I never feel like he is being dishonest. Whenever patcher makes an analysis its exactly that. He is not a deluded fanboy with a conflict of interest he is a professional analyst doing his job. People don't like him because he says what he really thinks instead of buttering up his opinions to not offend anyone. I appreciate honesty a lot more than political correctness and 100% accuracy.

Church185:
Crap, Pachter is rooting for Sony.

Sony is DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!

Yeah, I'm calling it for...Nintendo? Microsoft? If Patcher believes the PS4 is going to win, it's pretty much the only one that can't.

Adam Jensen:

He doesn't have a point. Nothing he says is his opinion. He reads gaming forums and and then spouts whatever the popular opinion is. Real analysts have predicted this months ago and this tosser is coming out with his "prediction" a week before the next-gen launch.

Two things:

1. You are giving Patcher WAAAAAY too much credit. No way is he that grounded in gaming opinions. His predictions are so frequently off the wall that he's got tobe reading YouTube comments (free money for following THIS LINK!!!, Ron Paul 2012).

2. Patcher is a real analyst. He's got a real job doing real analysis for a real company. This stuff doesn't seem to be what keeps him employed.

BONUS ROUND:

3. Honestly, most analysts are full of shit. Patcher just seems to not half-ass it. He's like the Peter Molyneux or Glenn Beck of games analysis.

Full Metal Bolshevik:
It seems I'm in the minority when I think this generation of consoles will sell less consoles than the previous one.

Overall? Maybe. The Wii left a big hole to be filled.

Individually? Well, considering the (in my opinion undeserved) frenzy at launch, it's hard to imagine lower lifetime sales for the PS4 and Bone compared to their predecessors. I'm not precluding it, but I think it's unlikely.

I mean, what are you basing this on? It doesn't seem to be realistic.

Kwil:

He's only "mostly right" if you use the most generous interpretation of "right".

For example, if he keeps predicting the irrelevence of consoles in a few years time, he will probably be eventually right. But he's predicted it like 9 billion times now. One would think routinely being wrong would count, but apparently not.

RicoADF:
You know you've stuffed up when Michael Pachter can read the community better than the console maker....

But is that true? Guy was just pulling for the Xbone recently. Despite all evidence to the contrary. Is this really reading the market? Especially since he's attached it to yet another prediction that consoles will be irrelevant (this time for realz, yo).

I'm not surprised. Personally, I think any of us here could've predicted that PS4 would do well. Between the epic fail that was all the drama of the XBOX One, the lack of anything Earth shattering with the Wii U, and the fact that the PS4 was built to be more friendly to third party and indie developers...predicting the PS4 would do quite well was pretty much a given.

Zachary Amaranth:

Overall? Maybe. The Wii left a big hole to be filled.

Individually? Well, considering the (in my opinion undeserved) frenzy at launch, it's hard to imagine lower lifetime sales for the PS4 and Bone compared to their predecessors. I'm not precluding it, but I think it's unlikely.

I just think more people by now realised PC is better. But yeah, maybe I'm giving humanity to much credit.

But consols sales have something everyone should take into account but not many people do. How frail the console is and how many reiterations the console has. Look at DS and PS2, PS2 was frail and had a few reiterations. DS had a lot of redesigns, some people have both the first DS and lite, or lite and DSi, or all of them. Xbox 360 was also really frail and I bet many people bought two 360.

Let's see how physically strong PS4 and Xbone are. Wii U seems strong at least.

I love the people who think they can do Pachter's job or think his ramblings are what he gets paid for. GT gave him a platform to say things based from a business mindset. Kind of an inside look at how people like Kotick and Richotello work. In everyone one of his videos some ask him about things that no Analyst can guess or that he has no interest in understanding, so he gives an educated guess, which tends to be right, but is as reliable as weather predictions two months out.

When it comes to his actual job at Webbush, you know, the one that brings him in his six figure paycheck, the one that Ceo's call him in for, he's actually pretty damn good at. That said, no matter how much you bitch and moan he'll continue to have the show for as long as he wants it(or GT see's viable), and he'll continue to make predictions and get paid for it. He'll also continue to be an analyst until he decide he wants to retire.

Also, personality wise, he's pretty cool person(even though he's always wrong about my platform of choice, PC.

Full Metal Bolshevik:

I just think more people by now realised PC is better. But yeah, maybe I'm giving humanity to much credit.

Or you could simply not attribute it to being "smart" or not.

Do you grow your own food? It's the "smart" thing to do.

Do you service your own car? It's the "smart" thing to do.

Do you maintain your own electrical work? It's the "smart" thing to do.

Part of the barrier to entry with computers is that people don't care enough about it to maintain it. You can make PCs as easy to operate and upgrade as possible, and people won't do it. But then, that's not any different from gardening, or maintaining a car, or any of hundreds of things you probably don't do every day.

Don't look down on people for not having the same interests as you do. Especially if you don't want them doing the same. It's part of why PC gamers are so routinely ridiculed.

But consols sales have something everyone should take into account but not many people do. How frail the console is and how many reiterations the console has. Look at DS and PS2, PS2 was frail and had a few reiterations. DS had a lot of redesigns, some people have both the first DS and lite, or lite and DSi, or all of them. Xbox 360 was also really frail and I bet many people bought two 360.

Let's see how physically strong PS4 and Xbone are. Wii U seems strong at least.

Who doesn't take this into account? It was immediately taken into account with PS2 and 360 sales. A better indicator would be software attach rate (which actually very likely favours PC users) or install base. I mean, seriously.

I'm also not sure what it matters. The new consoles will have revisions, so what does that mean for filling the shoes of last gen? The 3DS already has multiple revisions. The PSVita, too. Even if they're "strong" systems, why would the number of available revisions matter to anything you mentioned previous?

Crimsonmonkeywar:
I love the people who think they can do Pachter's job or think his ramblings are what he gets paid for.

Saying he's an idiot doesn't mean they think they can do his job. they just don't think he can do it.

In everyone one of his videos some ask him about things that no Analyst can guess or that he has no interest in understanding, so he gives an educated guess, which tends to be right, but is as reliable as weather predictions two months out.

If no analyst can predict these things, he really shouldn't be predicting them, then.

When it comes to his actual job at Webbush, you know, the one that brings him in his six figure paycheck, the one that Ceo's call him in for, he's actually pretty damn good at.

the "he has a good job" argument, which is almost as specious as the "you think you can do better?" argument.

It falls apart further when you consider how consulting works. When you look, for example, at all those finance firms that couldn't see the fiscal cliff coming. The nature of stocks as a gamble. The fact that prognostication really doesn't pan out as all that successful in the real world.

Yeah.

I mean, yeah. I'm sure he's crying all the way to the bank, but that doesn't justify anything. It doesn't even make him good at his job. If people can endanger lives and not get fired, why would it be an indicator here?

 Pages 1 2 NEXT

Reply to Thread

Log in or Register to Comment
Have an account? Login below:
With Facebook:Login With Facebook
or
Username:  
Password:  
  
Not registered? To sign up for an account with The Escapist:
Register With Facebook
Register With Facebook
or
Register for a free account here