Michael Pachter Predicts PS4 to "Win" Next-Gen Console War

 Pages 1 2 NEXT
 

Michael Pachter Predicts PS4 to "Win" Next-Gen Console War

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter expects the PS4 to outsell the Xbox One by 30% through 2016.

While the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One era has just begun, that hasn't stopped Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter from already picking out a winner. Over the holidays, Pachter released his industry forecast for the next three years and claims the firm expects the PS4 to "win" the next-gen console war over Microsoft's Xbox One.

Pachter estimates the PS4 to post cumulative global sales of 37.7 million units by the end of 2016, which is 30% higher than his expectations for the Xbox One's 29 million units sold within the same time frame. In his projections, Pachter makes a few assumptions regarding retail price cuts for both the PS4 and Xbox One, with the PS4 expected to drop to $299 over the next three years, while Microsoft is expected to make a bigger price reduction of $150 per unit to put the Xbox One at $349.

Having pegged the PS4 as the winner, Pachter does think Microsoft can throw a curveball by cutting the Xbox One's price earlier and claims, "it is possible that Microsoft will reduce Xbox One pricing far faster than we have forecasted. Should hardware prices come down faster than we have modeled, it is likely that hardware and software sales will grow faster."

Just in case you're wondering, the Wii U hasn't been left out, with the report citing that they expect Nintendo to hit 20 million units sold by the end of 2016 at a price point of $150 per console.

Do you agree with Pachter's projections? If so, how do you feel about Sony dominating console gaming once again just like it was during the PS2 days?

Source: GamesIndustry

Permalink

Well yeah, it's already outselling the Xbone. But I hate what consoles have become and I hope they all just flop.

Who on earth is this Pachter guy? His name is thrown around an awful lot these days.

OT: If he's right, hooray for Sony. If he's wrong, hooray for Microsoft. If its a near dead heat.....time to close down the comments sections on youtube. :P

While I do enjoy listening to Pachter, he's been saying this EXACT IDENTICAL message since both consoles were revealed. Why are people still reporting it like it's news? Yes he said it again, but that's just because people just keep asking him to repeat himself expecting a different answer!

"Let me ask you, do you know... the definition of insanity?"

Guys, let the not-news go until he actually says something different worth reporting.

Sseth:
Well yeah, it's already outselling the Xbone. But I hate what consoles have become and I hope they all just flop.

I know what you mean. I'd hate to see MS & Sony rewarded for turning consoles into gamer milkers. I kind of envy the Nintendo fans as they have the most consumer friendly console. But its still going to take more than Bayonetta2 to get me to buy one.

My assessment of this is that he may or may not be right. He could also be partially right as the percentage might differ slightly or greatly from what was predicted.

I'm taking a hard-line stance on this.

wooty:
Who on earth is this Pachter guy? His name is thrown around an awful lot these days.

He's been around for several years actually. He always makes these statements, and for some reason it's always considered news. I don't know why he gets more visibility that other video game analysts, but he does.

Anyway, isn't it a wee bit early to be calling anything? I mean, people were saying the PS3 was going to ruin Sony when it first launched because, let's be honest here, that was a disaster of a launch, from the pricing and PR to the games at launch. But they managed to straighten things out after a while and gave Microsoft a good run for their money. This just seems like chest beating to me right now.

Thank you captain obvious. Sir.

yay, let's make assumptions about the future of barely released consoles even though none of them has any significant titles worthy of our attention.

This report is almost as pointless as my commenting on it.
I shall return to my homeopathic drinking night

I honestly think it's way to early for anything to be decided. Really what sells consoles end of the day is games, games and games. Right now I think Microsoft has a bit of a lead with their launch titles and TitalFall might be a killer app for them. What is going to decide it will be how good the games are this year.

But I think the real winner is this Christmas was PC gaming. Over the Christmas sale online players I saw as high as 7.8 Million online which is crazy when this summer hitting 5M online was rare. Once gamers see the options you can get on the PC. I think many are just simply abandoning the console. I remember the launch of the 360 and PS3 everyone I knew was talking about buying it or wanting it. Now I don't know anyone who has bought it and only one friend kind of thinking about it in regards to Destiny. End of the day it's the games and in that category consoles are getting murdered by the PC. With GoG releasing 500+ older games, Steam having a library of thousands of titles. Console games being ported on a weekly basis, the unending stream of high quality games coming from Indie companies. I don't see this improving any time soon for the consoles.

wooty:
Who on earth is this Pachter guy? His name is thrown around an awful lot these days.

He's a dumbass who's always wrong and nobody likes. His bile turns out to be wrong more often then not, and yet people continuously report on what he says like it matters for some reason

Alex Co:
Do you agree with Pachter's projections?

No. No I do not, for the sole reason that it's Patcher who predicted them. I hate seeing his shit get reported, because his opinion is absolutely the most worthless in the industry.

And honestly, isn't it a little early to be predicting "winners" anyway? the Wii U's only a year old and the XBox One and PS4 weren't even released until a recently; this generation has several years left to go.

Patcher is never right. This is like an unwritten rule of the universe.

All the veterans of the first console wars cry out in agony that, "It's not worth it!". Tears in their eyes they go back to doing drugs and living in filth to forget the memories.

MrMan999:
Patcher is never right. This is like an unwritten rule of the universe.

Not exactly, he is occasionally right when he states the obvious.

hotdogoctopus:
All the veterans of the first console wars cry out in agony that, "It's not worth it!". Tears in their eyes they go back to doing drugs and living in filth to forget the memories.

Hey! I dont live in filth!

It lives in me :)

Agreed, PS4 will outsell XB1 - not really a huge surprise though. But WiiU selling 20million by 2016, i doubt it, its only just sold 5 million. Guess once Zelda etc (the major Nintendo games) then it might reach 20 million. Still doubt it though.

Remember when the Xbox One and PS4 were going to cost under a hundred dollars, Michael?

Ed130:

MrMan999:
Patcher is never right. This is like an unwritten rule of the universe.

Not exactly, he is occasionally right when he states the obvious.

This just in "Patcher says water will remain wet well into the new year"

why is this asshole saying stuff considered 'news'? the only time he's ever been right is when it was already so obvious that there was little room for doubt.

GonzoGamer:

I know what you mean. I'd hate to see MS & Sony rewarded for turning consoles into gamer milkers. I kind of envy the Nintendo fans as they have the most consumer friendly console. But its still going to take more than Bayonetta2 to get me to buy one.

I don't see how Nintendo is more consumer friendly than Sony, I can get PS4 games from anywhere but if I get a Wii U I can only play games released in my region because Nintendo would rather fuck their consumers over with prices than offer them choice. Xbox is bad for this as well, hence why PS4 was my first choice (along with alot of other reasons).

RicoADF:

GonzoGamer:

I know what you mean. I'd hate to see MS & Sony rewarded for turning consoles into gamer milkers. I kind of envy the Nintendo fans as they have the most consumer friendly console. But its still going to take more than Bayonetta2 to get me to buy one.

I don't see how Nintendo is more consumer friendly than Sony, I can get PS4 games from anywhere but if I get a Wii U I can only play games released in my region because Nintendo would rather fuck their consumers over with prices than offer them choice. Xbox is bad for this as well, hence why PS4 was my first choice (along with alot of other reasons).

Sony were apparently going to use something like Microsoft's DRM as well, then they said they weren't in an extremely smart marketing ploy considering the time. As much as I hate region lock, it's nowhere near as bad as the Xbone's previous DRM scheme (or most types of DRM in general).

DarklordKyo:

Sony were apparently going to use something like Microsoft's DRM as well, then they said they weren't in an extremely smart marketing ploy considering the time. As much as I hate region lock, it's nowhere near as bad as the Xbone's previous DRM scheme (or most types of DRM in general).

They probably considered it, especially since the publishers no doubt requested it, but when it came down to it they chose not to. Considering Microsoft had already confirmed they were having always online DRM Sony could have easily had it too and there would have been little risk to them, they took a bet by saying no to always online and won because of it (finally a company that uses some sense). Alot of things are 'considered' when a system is designed, it doesn't necessarily mean that they put it past the ideas phase.

It boggles me someone would actually pay him (a third party) to estimate sales numbers of videogame related products. For what purpose other than to rile up bunch of idiotic fanboys?

Commander Obvious:
Thank you captain obvious. Sir.

So.. captain outranks commander?

RicoADF:

DarklordKyo:

Sony were apparently going to use something like Microsoft's DRM as well, then they said they weren't in an extremely smart marketing ploy considering the time. As much as I hate region lock, it's nowhere near as bad as the Xbone's previous DRM scheme (or most types of DRM in general).

They probably considered it, especially since the publishers no doubt requested it, but when it came down to it they chose not to. Considering Microsoft had already confirmed they were having always online DRM Sony could have easily had it too and there would have been little risk to them, they took a bet by saying no to always online and won because of it (finally a company that uses some sense). Alot of things are 'considered' when a system is designed, it doesn't necessarily mean that they put it past the ideas phase.

It's pretty obvious that Sony waited to see the public reaction to Microsoft's DRM, and after seeing the overwhelmingly negative response went with their current option. If Microsoft had a better PR team that didn't completely screw up their pre-launch marketing (how can you be so dumb as to focus your announcements on all the limitations of your system rather than the benefits), I have no doubt Sony would've gone with a similar DRM strategy to Microsoft's.

In what, sales of overall units or overall profit?

*Ps4 just had the most successful launch in console history*

"Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter expects the PS4 to outsell the Xbox One"

...

People get paid for this? Why did I even pay for college?

Thank you captain hindsight, for pointing out the obviuos after it happened.

wooty:
Who on earth is this Pachter guy? His name is thrown around an awful lot these days.

He is financial analyst that likes to express opinions about games (not related to his actual, well paid work). Game journalists like to share his opinions with the rest. statistically hes around 50% correct.

james.sponge:
yay, let's make assumptions about the future of barely released consoles even though none of them has any significant titles worthy of our attention.

Yes they have. The best title of the year is actually called "loading". All you need to finish it is time and EVERYONE played it.

New Frontiersman:

He's a dumbass who's always wrong and nobody likes. His bile turns out to be wrong more often then not, and yet people continuously report on what he says like it matters for some reason

Hes around 50% right and there are plenty of people that like him enough to pay him loads of money.

MrMan999:
Patcher is never right. This is like an unwritten rule of the universe.

you are wrong. patcher is 50% of times right.

DarklordKyo:

Sony were apparently going to use something like Microsoft's DRM as well, then they said they weren't in an extremely smart marketing ploy considering the time. As much as I hate region lock, it's nowhere near as bad as the Xbone's previous DRM scheme (or most types of DRM in general).

Region locking is one of the worst types of DRM.

mysecondlife:
It boggles me someone would actually pay him (a third party) to estimate sales numbers of videogame related products. For what purpose other than to rile up bunch of idiotic fanboys?

They dont. Noone pays im anything for his opinion of videgames. He trades in securities, gets paid for it. Has nothing to do with games. He just likes to talk about games as a hobby.

Fox12:
People get paid for this? Why did I even pay for college?

He doesnt get paid for this.

"Collective moaning of "no shit, Sherlock" were ignored by Pachter."

Seriously, that's been clear from the start. Gigantic internet rage over policies, weird one-eighties on those policies, a provably worse hardware that will eventually lag behind in the graphics race and a huge focus on non-gaming content. And now the PS4 is already outselling the XBone.
Come on, this is is like saying "BANKS ARE UNTRUSTWORTHY" - yeah, we know, even the blind people have seen the signs.

And no, I'm not ragging on Pachter, not saying he is a bad guy. He talks about videogames in his freetime. I'm just saying that his statement is incredibly obvious and that this isn't exactly news.

Pachter has been saying this on his show for months... This is not new news.

joeman098:

This just in "Patcher says water will remain wet well into the new year"

If Pachter said that, I would be testing water all year round just to make sure. The fail in Pachter is just that powerful.

Sega have released the DreamCast, which they predict that using its innovative new features will take the industry by storm.

RicoADF:

GonzoGamer:

I know what you mean. I'd hate to see MS & Sony rewarded for turning consoles into gamer milkers. I kind of envy the Nintendo fans as they have the most consumer friendly console. But its still going to take more than Bayonetta2 to get me to buy one.

I don't see how Nintendo is more consumer friendly than Sony, I can get PS4 games from anywhere but if I get a Wii U I can only play games released in my region because Nintendo would rather fuck their consumers over with prices than offer them choice. Xbox is bad for this as well, hence why PS4 was my first choice (along with alot of other reasons).

That's a good reason but I was thinking that Nintendo is the only one not phasing out local multiplayer for online multiplayer than charging a monthly fee for it. Cheaper console too (even before you consider online fees) and if history is any judge, the most sturdy too.

GonzoGamer:

That's a good reason but I was thinking that Nintendo is the only one not phasing out local multiplayer for online multiplayer than charging a monthly fee for it. Cheaper console too (even before you consider online fees) and if history is any judge, the most sturdy too.

I agree local multiplayer is important, it's one of the main reasons I get consoles (as most online MP games I get on PC), that said the PS3 has quite a few local MP games in my collection, especially racing and FPS's, the PS4 though is too soon to tell however none of the games out so far have it so it's not looking good, we shal see though. Part of the issue is it depends on the 3rd party publishers more than anything, unlike Nintendo's systems which are mostly about Nintendo games, and thus they make a point of having them local MP focused.

mattttherman3:
Pachter has been saying this on his show for months... This is not new news.

Only reason it's newsworthy is because of his bad track record, making it good clickbait.

 Pages 1 2 NEXT

Reply to Thread

Log in or Register to Comment
Have an account? Login below:
With Facebook:Login With Facebook
or
Username:  
Password:  
  
Not registered? To sign up for an account with The Escapist:
Register With Facebook
Register With Facebook
or
Register for a free account here