Box-Office Analysts: Zac Efron Poised to Defeat Spider-Man

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Box-Office Analysts: Zac Efron Poised to Defeat Spider-Man

efron

Will weak word of mouth spell doom for Sony's Summer?

Well, this is unexpected.

Hollywood studios produce enough big action movies throughout the year to have a brand new one open every single week of Summer with plenty left over, so why don't they? Because if a blockbuster has "legs" (industry speak for "makes big money for a long stretch of time") it could gobble up the potential ticket sales of the following week's big movie, and nobody likes to open in second place. That's why no major new action or family movies (Summer's two biggest genres) are opening this week, because everyone had assumed that Sony's The Amazing Spider-Man 2 would be a major hit and spend at least two weeks in first place, with Godzilla expected to blow everything else off the screen on May 16th.

But now, with TASM2 opening softer than most had projected (it failed to out-earn Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which many including Sony were citing as a reliable measure,) mediocre reviews from critics (55% on Rotten Tomatoes, making it the first "Rotten" Spider-Man movie) and with a weaker than expected B+ from the famously generous Cinemascore ratings, that logic is being widely questioned. Industry trade The Wrap now reports that the first "stunner" of Summer 2014 could very likely be Spidey losing his top spot after only one week... to a raunchy comedy starring Seth Rogen and High School Musical's Zac Efron.

The math goes like this: The Rogen/Efron vehicle, Neighbors, - in which a young suburban family gets into a prank war with a rowdy college fraternity that moves in next door - has been tracking to open with as much as $40 millon, a huge number for a non-PG13 comedy in May. TASM2, on the other hand, has what The Wrap calls "a distinct possibility" of taking a 60% plunge off it's $91 million first weekend. If both come to pass, Neighbors would take first place.

While this outcome is by no means certain, it would be a major feather in the cap for Universal Pictures - "beating" a Marvel superhero with an R-rated comedy is the box-office equipment of taking down an elephant with a pellet gun: Difficult, but not impossible. It would also be the latest in a string of black-eyes for Sony, which saw a mini-revolt among shareholders last Summer when both After Earth and White House Down failed to perform.

Source: The Wrap

Permalink

... Why do I have the image that you wrote this actical with a massive grin?

You really need to cool it on the "Amazing Spidey 2 will fail" thing. Comparing a tentpole release with an R-Rated Movie, that isn't even released on the same week is utter nonsense. Especially since there aren't even real numbers in yet. Just a suggestion: Wait for results and maybe look for a more useful comparison like... I don't know... the first Amazing Spiderman, not a random Zac Efron vehicle.

MovieBob:
snip

For what it's worth Bob, it appears TASM2 is the movie that broke Film Critic Hulk as well. He just wrote an essay comprising of 237 burning questions about the most 'insidious, horrible storytelling ever.'

I... just might watch this movie.

RA92:
I... just might watch this movie.

You'd better spend the money NOT watching TASM2, and getting a ticket for that Zac Efron movie mentioned above.

You don't have to even watch it, just buy the ticket and go somewhere completely unrelated.
You'd be contributing to a Zac Efron movie opening stronger than a Spider-Man movie.
Which I repeat, is money better spent.

40 Million is a pretty high estimate for Neighbors. Not impossible because you have those occasionally good R rated comedies that open with 50 Million like Ted, and neighbors isn't getting a lot of negative reviews. Heck even Ted only got a 68% and 6.4. I'm sure neighbors will go down from where it's at now but it's at 89% and 7.1 so maybe it'll do it. But I don't think anyone knows what makes R rated comedies work and not work so even going off of reviews is hard to say.

If Hollywood is so gun shy about coming in second who's fault is it that Cap 3 and Batman/Superman open on the same weekend?

I'm pretty sure you can only take down an elephant with a pellet gun if you hit it in the eye, or modify the pellet gun to the point where it is no longer a pellet gun.

I just want to go on record to say that The Winter Soldier was awesome and people should go see it.

(In other words, I really don't see much in the current Spidey.)

Yep Amazing Spiderman 2 totally bombed! it's opening weekend was down 3.6% on 'the Winter Soldier'.

/s

It's funny when Pacific Rim bombed in the USA Bob went on and on about it didn't matter because of international gross but with a film he doesn't like only possibly number 1 for 1 week DOOM!

Just looked them up on Box office Mojo

UK

Winter soldier
released 26/03/2014
$31,055,683 as of 04/05/2014

Amazing Spiderman 2
released 18/04/2014
$33,222,668 as of 04/05/2014

Other countries ASM2 is beating WS even with a shorter release time

Ukraine
Uruguay
Turkey
Sweden
Slovenia
Japan
Israel
Italy
Austria
Croatia

Sony has bigger issues than this.

Also PR was at least unique. Spider-man *is* suffering from the fact that.. this shit isn't new anymore infact its kinda weird how much this movie is composed of parts of other movies and media. I loved it and would recommend it. but steel yourself that this is a fun teen romance adventure with a great spider-man. If you want... something else I can't fault it.

Oh man I'd live to see this tank, if your just making movies for cynical solely profit based motives then your movie deserves every bit of 'meh' that it deserves. This Amazing Spider-Man should've been called The somewhat passable Spider-Man that for all intents and purposes is weaker than the original, but that's a tad long so I can understand why they went for something shorter, if a tad misleading.

On the other hand I'm happy to see Zac Efron slowly discard the Disney buggery that seems to drive all kids stars ban-ay-nays (Miley Cyrus, etc), but if he either a) sings or b) plays basketball, I'm walking out of the cinema.

Look bob, you really need to cool it with hate-fucking the Amazing Spider Man 2 in the news section. I know you want this movie to fail but the sad truth is it has been a mild success in European markets and whilst it might fall short of high expectations it is still going to make money.

It remains to be seen how unreasonable Sony's earnings expectations were form this film and how much they plowed into marketing but if they've been vaguely competent with the money side of this (which isn't anywhere near guaranteed I'll give you that) this movie is a success.

MrHide-Patten:
Oh man I'd live to see this tank, if your just making movies for cynical solely profit based motives then your movie deserves every bit of 'meh' that it deserves. This Amazing Spider-Man should've been called The somewhat passable Spider-Man that for all intents and purposes is weaker than the original, but that's a tad long so I can understand why they went for something shorter, if a tad misleading.

On the other hand I'm happy to see Zac Efron slowly discard the Disney buggery that seems to drive all kids stars ban-ay-nays (Miley Cyrus, etc), but if he either a) sings or b) plays basketball, I'm walking out of the cinema.

All the franchise films are solely for making profit. Why the hell do you thing Disney bought Marvel and Lucasfilm because there own non animated films were bombing apart from pirates.

I've always been wary of Hollywood math when it comes to predicting what will hit big and what will flop. Mostly because some of the logic behind making "guaranteed" winners tends to have some components of ignorant speculation and ass-covering BS tactics (anyone remember Battleship?). Also, the fact that studios tend to fudge the numbers as to how much they actually spent to make/promote a movie doesn't really help their cause. I've always seen the box office weekend more as a crap shoot. You can have all the good fortune and statistics with you, it doesn't mean your lucky number is gonna come up as planned. But that's how I see it.

However, if Neighbors beats out ASM2 this weekend, I will gladly buy you a drink to celebrate, Mr. Chipman.

Kumagawa Misogi:
Yep Amazing Spiderman 2 totally bombed! it's opening weekend was down 3.6% on 'the Winter Soldier'.

/s

It's funny when Pacific Rim bombed in the USA Bob went on and on about it didn't matter because of international gross but with a film he doesn't like only possibly number 1 for 1 week DOOM!

Just looked them up on Box office Mojo

UK

Winter soldier
released 26/03/2014
$31,055,683 as of 04/05/2014

Amazing Spiderman 2
released 18/04/2014
$33,222,668 as of 04/05/2014

Other countries ASM2 is beating WS even with a shorter release time

Ukraine
Uruguay
Turkey
Sweden
Slovenia
Japan
Israel
Italy
Austria
Croatia

My thoughts exactly. His constant Sony Pictures bashing is also getting on my nerves. He's acting as if every movie they make is a huge flop when in reality they posted a solid profit last quarter.

I've already seen Neighbors, It's OK for some chuckles but all the funniest scenes are literally already in the trailer (either that or many clips in the trailers and commercials NEVER even appear in the movie) There is quite a remarkable scene involving Rose Byrne's character that I won't spoil. Over all This Is The End was far funnier by a mile.

I think what the film may have going for it is Zac Efron. He'll probably pull in the female viewers. Still, if this film does beat out ASM2 I can't see it beating it by much.

FalloutJack:
I just want to go on record to say that The Winter Soldier was awesome and people should go see it.

(In other words, I really don't see much in the current Spidey.)

Supported!

I gotta say, Cap is one of my least favorite super-heroes on account on him being just a duller version of superman with less powers. Even so, both his movies have been enjoyable, with the second one winning out on sheer awesomeness.

OT: The more bad press and bad stuff that happens to TASM2 the better. I really hate this version of spidey, and while I'm not a massive Tobey-fan...his version was a LOT more watchable than Garfield. Honestly Garfield just reminds me of %#&% Hayden Christensen. And I hate Hayden Christensen with the passion of a thousand suns.

I'm actually looking forward to seeing Neighbors. It looks funny, the reviews aren't bad at this point, and I have been in the mood for "haha, laugh out loud" film for a while. It's probably why I have been spending my Friday nights watching standup comedy specials. With Amazing Spidey 2, I'll probably just wait for the Red Box release.

I'll just say, in the battle between Neighbors and TASM2...

... Go see The Winter Soldier instead. Or see it twice/three times.

Firstly, it's just a little bit egotistical to expect the same numbers as a MCU movie. Lets at least lower expectations to Avatar money. That said, Spider-Man 2 did make $92m, which is only a hair off the Winter Soldier mark. I myself haven't been to see it, but only because I restrict my theater movie consumption to 1 a month, so I'm waiting for DoFP instead. I cannot comment on the movie itself, some reviewers say it's good, Bob hates it because it strays too far from the golden age gawky nerd version that Toby portrayed so very well. This disregards the latest incarnation of Parker, who when not possessed by Doc Ock, looks like this:
image
Notice any similarities?
Personally, I've given up on hoping the full MCU might one day unite with the fantastic, the mutant, and the arachnid. They all have their separate cinematic universes and I'm cool with that. I don't see a rated R comedy beating out any modern day superhero flick. In fact, I fully expect it to drop under Cap 2 in the theaters still showing it. Plus I'm simply not a fan of the current batch of comedians running amok in the movies this last half-decade. They're just....not funny to me.

What's wrong, did this movie have too much meaningful story with subtle emotion and not enough of the obvious silly gags that the Marvel Cinematic Universe relies on?

P.S. Thanks

P.P.S. Seriously, I haven't seen this one yet, but that's the only guess I have; Marvel fans seem to like one specific type of writing, one that Disney has figured out how to produce consistently, and even if this movie turns out not to be great, it's at least nice to see something that doesn't feel like more of the same.

Kumagawa Misogi:

Just looked them up on Box office Mojo

Well if you'd bother to watch the showdown on bom, or learn how to read the numbers you'd understand why it's failing.

TWS had 3938 theaters and made 24,130 each
ASM2 had 4324 theaters and made 21,186 each

TWS had 9% fewers theaters but made 12% more for each theater.

Understanding all that goes into estimating a box office weekend is complicated, but part of what makes that opening box office what it is happens to be theater count. Sony got more theaters expecting to be able to make more money because of more interest in spider-man. Not being able to beat Cap when you have a 386 theater count lead is a big deal when measuring a movies success. TWS is also not considered actually in the Summer Movie Season, and ASM2 is considered to be the first actual film to start Summer. Part of this is Summer Movie Creep, but Summer is supposed to be the driving factor in the Box Office when targeting kids that are typically in school in April. Opening on final exam week was also probably not a smart move on Sony's part, but that's why summer creep is bad.

The Monday after is also a big indicator for the remaining success. The weekend percentage deltas are normal for each franchise, but the First monday for TWS was a 73.5% drop where for ASM2 the drop is 77.8%. Now compare that to AMS 57.7%, or the first Spider-man film of 65.3%.

Cap isn't designed to be anything other than a 150 to 200 million dollar franchise, and as such it's meet expectations and exceeding them in many cases. The concern with Cap has always been that a character that wears the countries flag isn't going to go over well with the General Audience. Digging down all the way to the Ukraine just to find countries that Spider-man beat Cap isn't a good point in your favor because of that very issue.

Spider-man is supposed to be a 300+ million domestic franchise. He's had 4 plus titles running each month, and had been the top selling character of Marvel for decades though currently that's been wavering. If ASM2 only barely breaks 200M domestic it will be a disappointment, and that's exactly where it is headed.

Disappointing perhaps, but I doubt Sony will let go just yet. I am a fanboy. I want Spider-man in the Avengers dammit.

RA92:

MovieBob:
snip

For what it's worth Bob, it appears TASM2 is the movie that broke Film Critic Hulk as well. He just wrote an essay comprising of 237 burning questions about the most 'insidious, horrible storytelling ever.'

I... just might watch this movie.

Thank God, someone has finally pinpointed what irks me so much about the scripts of Kurtzman/Orci... their heroes are practically infallible and Always Right, not by the virtue of certain moral principles, competence or wisdom, but simply by them being the "most important, most talented, most interesting and most extraordinary person in the Universe" (thx Lego Movie) because Destiny and stuff. Neither Kirk or TASM Spidey (or Sam Witwicky for that matter) is ever directly responsible for anything bad that happens to them or others, there are always oh-so-conventient loopholes present to shield them from being in the wrong for any reason or making any meaningful compromise or sacrifice. Their "destiny" is not that of Luke Skywalker or Neo, but that of some spoiled, privileged only child to whom nobody ever dared to say "no" without eventually giving in to their tantrums.

I don't know their exact role in creating the awesomeness that was Transformers Prime, but given their track record I would be very surprised if it had been anything but negligible.

If Spidey got beat at the box office this weekend and the studios walked away with a lesson that you need a good movie not just a popular name that would be something nice. Sadly I don't think the studios would catch onto the idea that they need to make their superhero movies better if they want more people to show up to buy tickets.

I know it's too much to hope for but maybe people are starting to get a little more picky about films. If people not going out to see the most advertised film can bring a change to film making then hey whatever it takes to get better films over films just wanting to set up hallow endless franchises.

Remus:
I cannot comment on the movie itself, some reviewers say it's good, Bob hates it because it strays too far from the golden age gawky nerd version that Toby portrayed so very well. This disregards the latest incarnation of Parker, who when not possessed by Doc Ock, looks like this:
image
Notice any similarities?

Oh yeah, definitely.
image
Looks just like Tobey Maguire to me.

I'm not sure if that was your intent, because even though I LIKE Andrew Garfield in the role, he doesn't look much like the comic version you posted:
image

MovieBob:
..."beating" a Marvel superhero with an R-rated comedy is the box-office equipment of taking down an elephant with a pellet gun: Difficult, but not impossible...

equivalent, not equipment.

It feels like a shame that ASM2 will make it's money on worldwide gross. It seems like the new Modus Operandi for these films is to just throw money into the effects budget and count on making it back in China and Europe, eschewing pillars of solid film-making (especially for some of the more recent superhero movies). It's super disappointing to see characters changed so drastically to the point where it becomes obvious studios are just using comics as a hook to sell the movie. What hurts is that these characters often bare little to no resemblance to their namesakes. (I'm still salty about Man of Steel)

Trishbot:
snip

I think he's referring to the comics, not the film version of Peter Parker, with the reference to being possessed by Doc Ock and all.

OT: Okay, that's it! Not one more word about the new Spider-Man movies! We get it already! You hate them. You've provided ample explanation why you hate them. It's enough. We understand. Focus your attention on something else now. Like the upcoming X-Men movie. Maybe tell us a bit about the original comic it's based on? Because judging by what I know of it so far, it sounds incredibly stupid.

captcha: better next time. Maybe not, considering how Bob's taken these Spiderman movies so far.

Seen Both, Prefer Bad Neighbors. TASM2 Was good, but just not very good. Bad Neighbors was Much, much better. Plus who doesn't love Shirtless Zac Efron more than Garfield?!

Covarr:
What's wrong, did this movie have too much meaningful story with subtle emotion and not enough of the obvious silly gags that the Marvel Cinematic Universe relies on?

P.S. Thanks

P.P.S. Seriously, I haven't seen this one yet, but that's the only guess I have; Marvel fans seem to like one specific type of writing, one that Disney has figured out how to produce consistently, and even if this movie turns out not to be great, it's at least nice to see something that doesn't feel like more of the same.

What you don't seem to understand is that fans of Marvel's approach to movies like good writing and characters whose actions make sense in a narrative that also makes sense.

TASM2 has none of this. It's another Orci/Kurtzman disaster.

daibakuha:

Covarr:
What's wrong, did this movie have too much meaningful story with subtle emotion and not enough of the obvious silly gags that the Marvel Cinematic Universe relies on?

P.S. Thanks

P.P.S. Seriously, I haven't seen this one yet, but that's the only guess I have; Marvel fans seem to like one specific type of writing, one that Disney has figured out how to produce consistently, and even if this movie turns out not to be great, it's at least nice to see something that doesn't feel like more of the same.

What you don't seem to understand is that fans of Marvel's approach to movies like good writing and characters whose actions make sense in a narrative that also makes sense.

Marvel fans liked Iron Man 2, which had no good writing or sensible action, and even the "better" Marvel movies beat you over the head with poorly-explained plots (wtf did Loki do in The Avengers? Nothing) and stupid jokes. Iron Man 3, which was easily the best Marvel movie in terms of meaningful character development and character behavior that made sense, was considered by the fanbase to be the worst one, I assume because it had too much talking and not enough mindless action.

daibakuha:
TASM2 has none of this. It's another Orci/Kurtzman disaster

Ugh, I didn't realize these two were behind it. I don't instantly assume their stuff is crap-after all, MI3 and Fringe were both quite good-but I'm definitely cautious going into anything they do. Enders Game, Transformers, and Star Trek proved that they're quite capable of writing utter rubbish. Quite frankly now I wanna see it more just to see what they've done to it, because these guys really are wildcards.

P.S. Thanks

Trishbot:
I'll just say, in the battle between Neighbors and TASM2...

... Go see The Winter Soldier instead. Or see it twice/three times.

Win right here. All of the win.

I'm sorry Sony, but you never had a chance of out performing The Winter Soldier. Marvel has been at this too long, they have built up too much a fanbase, and they are making too good of movies for you to come in and dethrone them just like that. Lower the expectations just a bit next time.
Although, if this article turns out to be true, you um...might want to lower them even more.

Trishbot:

Remus:
I cannot comment on the movie itself, some reviewers say it's good, Bob hates it because it strays too far from the golden age gawky nerd version that Toby portrayed so very well. This disregards the latest incarnation of Parker, who when not possessed by Doc Ock, looks like this:
image
Notice any similarities?

Oh yeah, definitely.
image
Looks just like Tobey Maguire to me.

I'm not sure if that was your intent, because even though I LIKE Andrew Garfield in the role, he doesn't look much like the comic version you posted:
image

If it makes everyone feel better, as far as I'm concerned, both pictures are interchangeable when it comes to Peter Parker in the comics. I'll concede that McGuire's face fits a little better to the picture given, but really that's only because both faces are looking up an nearly the same angle while Garfield is looking downward. Either way, the point Remus tried to make is that Bob is still in the mindset that this Peter Parker...
image
... is still a version that modern high school students will identify with. You know, the idea that kids become outcasted because they like the science and the maths and not because of the social anxieties and disorders caused by educational pressure and a lack of people skills in an age of digital social networking.

I watched "Bad Neighbours" this past weekend and was as surprised as my friend when I found I enjoyed it. I'm not normally a fan of Seth Rogen, having like only "Green Hornet" from his other films but Bad Neighbours was a fun, funny and enjoyable film.

I have no intention of paying to watch ASM2.

What's that? Bob doesn't like TASM2 because it's a piece of shit? Crazy talk! It's clearly because he's so blinded by fanboy love of old Spider-man and Sam Raimi.

Glad a good movie is doing well and a bad movie is underperforming. Hopefully it means people are realizing that they don't need to see a shitty movie just because they recognize the main character.

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