There's hand waving and motion controls in John Carmack's future, but perhaps not all that much shooting.
id Software's technical director John Carmack, one of the minds behind massively influential games like Doom and Quake, says that he's interested in experimenting with Kinect. He says he has an "itch" to make an XBLA game that uses the device, although he admits that he hasn't figured out what he'd actually do yet.
Carmack said that Kinect was an interesting technology, and that an Xbox Live Arcade game would be the perfect platform to experiment with it. He said that he'd like to make a game on the same kind of scale as an iPhone game, which is likely to be a fairly substantial release, if the iPhone version of Rage is anything to go by. Whatever game he ends up making though, he says that it won't be an FPS, as he doesn't think id's current shooters are a good fit for Kinect.
I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of developers will end up doing something similar with Kinect, essentially experimenting with smaller games in order to figure out how it could work with hardcore titles, and getting a sense of how they'd like to use it. A Live Arcade game is also a smaller investment than a full retail title, so it would be a useful indicator of the potential audience. Millions of people might buy a Kinect before the end of the year, but not all of those are going to want to use it for hardcore games.