Market analyst Colin Sebastian has amended his predictions about Kinect, saying that Microsoft is being much more aggressive than he expected.
Sebastian, an analyst for Lazard Capital Markets, has increased his estimates for Kinect shipments from three to four million units, after discovering that Microsoft was manufacturing the peripheral at a faster rate than previously believed.
Sebastian said that the increased production suggests a more aggressive launch plan for Kinect than his firm had expected, and believes that the Microsoft will heavily weight its holiday shipments of Xbox 360s towards bundles including Kinect. He also said that the quantities may indicate that Microsoft plans to do some kind of price promotion in 2011.
Sebastian anticipates a “significant advertising blitz” before the release of the device in November, and thinks that sales of Sony’s Move, which launches a month sooner, may prove a useful barometer for Kinect’s success, despite, he said, not having the same retail buzz.
Units shipped obviously isn’t the same as units sold, and without more information on exactly how the units will be allocated, it’s hard to know what to make of this increased production. It certainly seems like Microsoft is giving Kinect a big push, but we won’t know whether it has been really successful until well into the new year.