Who do you think is going to win the next election?
Obama
81.3% (113)
81.3% (113)
Romney
18% (25)
18% (25)
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Poll: I think we're gonna have President Romney

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As I have always said, Obama will win on the virtue of "Not being the other guy".

Although it would be good for our comedians if Romney wins, it's not quite been the same over the last 4 years, we some what miss having a US President who's the laughing stock of the world.

Despite the title, this thread makes me so happy. All of the people showing how Romney is going to be crushed into oblivion...brings a tear to my eye.

mdk31:

On the other hand, Obama has done much to ensure his base will be active (coming out in open support of gay marriage, for example). Obama's got this one in the bag.

Gay marriage may hurt obama. He is largely supported by Hispanics and Blacks, both of whom are overwhelmingly against gay marriage. It could go either way, but this could alienate them.

Champthrax:

mdk31:

On the other hand, Obama has done much to ensure his base will be active (coming out in open support of gay marriage, for example). Obama's got this one in the bag.

Gay marriage may hurt obama. He is largely supported by Hispanics and Blacks, both of whom are overwhelmingly against gay marriage. It could go either way, but this could alienate them.

Do you really think Hispanics are going to vote for "close and electrify the borders and maybe dig a crocodile moat and a minefield while we're at it" Republicans or that blacks will vote for "pasty white epitome-of-white-privilege" Romney?

nyysjan:

Tyler Perry:

nyysjan:
Obama gaffe: quote taken out of context changing or obfuscating its meaning ("private sector is doing fine (in creating jobs)" debacle)

Romney gaffe: telling people honestly what he thinks of intents to do ("Obama wants to hire more firefighters, teachers and policemen, no we should do the opposite" speech)

Can't wait to find out who Romney picks for the VP slot.

Romney's not going to wild card like Palin. He'd be insane to go for a game-changer, so to speak. This is going to be a squeaker either way.

Romney will go moderately more centrist white guy.

Oh i don't know, it might be more rightwing white guy.
It will be a boring, white, christian, guy either way.

Why should the persons identity matter? Shouldn't the focus be on the VP's politics instead of who they are? It shouldn't matter who the Republican VP is, what should matter is the the VP's political views are.

Helmholtz Watson:

nyysjan:

Tyler Perry:

Romney's not going to wild card like Palin. He'd be insane to go for a game-changer, so to speak. This is going to be a squeaker either way.

Romney will go moderately more centrist white guy.

Oh i don't know, it might be more rightwing white guy.
It will be a boring, white, christian, guy either way.

Why should the persons identity matter? Shouldn't the focus be on the VP's politics instead of who they are? It shouldn't matter who the Republican VP is, what should matter is the the VP's political views are.

Because voters.

However, I think Republicans might be wanting to try the Alan Keyes gambit.

Seanchaidh:

Helmholtz Watson:

nyysjan:

Oh i don't know, it might be more rightwing white guy.
It will be a boring, white, christian, guy either way.

Why should the persons identity matter? Shouldn't the focus be on the VP's politics instead of who they are? It shouldn't matter who the Republican VP is, what should matter is the the VP's political views are.

Because voters.

However, I think Republicans might be wanting to try the Alan Keyes gambit.

Thats a shame, race, gender and religion of the candidate shouldn't be why you vote for them, it should be their political views.

Helmholtz Watson:

nyysjan:

Tyler Perry:

Romney's not going to wild card like Palin. He'd be insane to go for a game-changer, so to speak. This is going to be a squeaker either way.

Romney will go moderately more centrist white guy.

Oh i don't know, it might be more rightwing white guy.
It will be a boring, white, christian, guy either way.

Why should the persons identity matter? Shouldn't the focus be on the VP's politics instead of who they are? It shouldn't matter who the Republican VP is, what should matter is the the VP's political views are.

How are we supposed to know what the VP's political views are without knowing who the VP is?

nyysjan:

How are we supposed to know what the VP's political views are without knowing who the VP is?

Because nobody can get near a position of responsibility in the GOP these days without swearing eternal fealty to Blessed Saint Ronnie the Free-Marketeer. That limits their ideological options considerably.

nyysjan:

Helmholtz Watson:

nyysjan:

Oh i don't know, it might be more rightwing white guy.
It will be a boring, white, christian, guy either way.

Why should the persons identity matter? Shouldn't the focus be on the VP's politics instead of who they are? It shouldn't matter who the Republican VP is, what should matter is the the VP's political views are.

How are we supposed to know what the VP's political views are without knowing who the VP is?

does it really matter who the VP is? its not like some hardcore nutjob is gonna want romney dead.

nyysjan:

Helmholtz Watson:

nyysjan:

Oh i don't know, it might be more rightwing white guy.
It will be a boring, white, christian, guy either way.

Why should the persons identity matter? Shouldn't the focus be on the VP's politics instead of who they are? It shouldn't matter who the Republican VP is, what should matter is the the VP's political views are.

How are we supposed to know what the VP's political views are without knowing who the VP is?

I'm not saying that you shouldn't know who the VP is, just that you shouldn't make such a big deal about the VP's race, gender, and religion. Instead, you should focus on his political views.

Seanchaidh:

Because voters.

However, I think Republicans might be wanting to try the Alan Keyes gambit.

That didn't work out too well for them in 2008.

Granted, it is nice to see the Republicans considering black candidates and female candidates for high office; that's one area where I think they've actually improved a little. That being said, it has to be someone who's actually competent to hold the office and not batshit insane, which rules out both Sarah Palen and Alen Keyes.

Now, if they somehow convinced Colin Powell to run as Mitt Romney's VP, that would help them a lot, but I don't think he'd want to do it.

Yosarian2:
Now, if they somehow convinced Colin Powell to run as Mitt Romney's VP, that would help them a lot, but I don't think he'd want to do it.

Powell's way too smart to take the bait. Hell, he endorsed Obama in 2008 and while he's been a lifelong Republican that is well respected at home and abroad (even after his 2003 presentation to the UN), the Republican Base would abandon Romney completely if he opted for Powell as VP due to his lack of a hawkish foreign policy, his pragmatic problem solving approach, and his measured tone.

Helmholtz Watson:

nyysjan:

Helmholtz Watson:
Why should the persons identity matter? Shouldn't the focus be on the VP's politics instead of who they are? It shouldn't matter who the Republican VP is, what should matter is the the VP's political views are.

How are we supposed to know what the VP's political views are without knowing who the VP is?

I'm not saying that you shouldn't know who the VP is, just that you shouldn't make such a big deal about the VP's race, gender, and religion. Instead, you should focus on his political views.

I'm not making a big deal out of them, the "boring white male" is the criteria Romney campaign put out themselves.

Captcha: words of wisdom

xDarc:
I was looking at an election map here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/election-map-2012/president/

It would seem to me this election really hangs on 5 states and those are Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and... Ohio. I really think Mitt Romney will easily win North Carolina and Florida. They didn't seem all too pleased with Obama the first time around, barely squeaking out a majority vote in Florida at 51%. That was at the height of everyone being caught up in "hope" and "change." I'd imagine Barack easily slipping a couple points in many states just that the novelty of him has worn off.

Virginians may have elected barack w/ 52.7% majority in the last election, but bush won by 53.7% in 04. Virigina really is a pretty wealthy, expensive, upscale state and I would not be surprised to see them swing back Romney's way this time around.

That really leaves Colorado and Ohio. These could swing either way.

Is anyone from these states on these forums? What's the sentiment there? What do the rest of you think?

Edit: These five would get Romney the 270+ electoral votes to win.

To put it simply, it wont happen.

One other thing to bear in mind; the incumbent usually wins. When you consider the times they don't there is often some very obvious reason for it; George H Bush had Ross Perot syphoning (mostly) republican votes - for example.

Hafrael:

I think it would take something BIG to even give Romney a chance of winning. He's just too much like Obama, but a republican.

Not saying that it's true that he's particularly similar to Obama, but as someone living in Florida, I will say that that seems to be Joe Conservative's opinion. The most common political thing I see on my facebook wall is people bashing both major parties and pushing Ron Paul as a "true alternative." Essentially, the right wing in this state is so far to the right that Romney is nowhere near what they need to get energized.

Then again, I laugh when they call this place a swing state. Yes, I know, the democrats occasionally take the state in a presidential election, but /damn/ is this place conservative. Any Democratic wins have less to do with the strength of the Democratic candidate and more to do with the weakness of the Republican one. Miami is a liberal holdout in what is otherwise a sea of red. It's also pretty much nothing like the rest of the state.

This is all speaking as a registered Democrat, by the way.

TheDarkEricDraven:
Despite the title, this thread makes me so happy. All of the people showing how Romney is going to be crushed into oblivion...brings a tear to my eye.

You guys are disproportionately young demographic and I think the poll reflects that. Reality is it will be close. There's plenty of dislike for Obama outside of highschool and college.

P.S. More bad news for US manufacturing today, it's down. If this sort of thing continues it will certainly help Romney win Ohio which is crucial for him in this election. The polls are close enough to make the popular vote a toss up- but it's ultimately not the popular vote that matters. Most states are going to one side or the other as they normally do. It all comes down to Romney needing those five toss ups or so.

Obama won with such thing margins in FL, NC and VA that I think it won't be hard for Romney to pick those up this time around. That really only leaves ohio and colorado- both of which have been hit hard by unemployment and haven't seen much in the way of a recovery.

Some things might change between now and the election, some states that were considered leaning one way or the other may become hotly contested- but this being my fourth election, I've learned things usually play out close to what is predicted months in advance.

Romney will not win this one. He can't. Because the democratic party cannot afford for Obama to NOT be elected. Obama is the most progressive president we've had since...I don't really know, did Carter even come close? Obama is setting a precedent, for race, culture, and policy, and if he turned out to be a one-term president it would severely hamper any progress the democrats tried to make in the future. That being the case, I expect they will go to any length to win, right down to rigging the election. And since both sides decry the other for cheating anyway, if one actually did then I doubt it would even be caught.

No, I don't believe Romney will win. I never expected him to. I never expected anyone else to have a chance against Obama. I still won't vote for him, but I never felt that voting was that important anyway since it feels more like they just draw a name out of a hat when it's done.

xDarc:

P.S. More bad news for US manufacturing today, it's down. If this sort of thing continues it will certainly help Romney win Ohio which is crucial for him in this election.

"This is great news for John McCain!"

xDarc:

P.S. More bad news for US manufacturing today, it's down.

It's still way up from the 2009 levels, though. All in all, there has been a pretty significant growth in the manufacturing sector of the past few years.

ShadowKatt:
That being the case, I expect they will go to any length to win, right down to rigging the election.

Oh, stop it. Please. How, pray tell, are the Democrats supposed to "rig the election"? This ought to be interesting.

Thing is, no matter what Romney's policies are (and God knows he's adopted every position on every issue by this point), the guy himself is just so fucking uninspiring that I really can't see people rushing out thinking "oh boy, I've totally gotta vote for Romney today!"

The most he'll get is Republicans diligently falling in line, and the only fanaticism on the right-wing side this time around will be the stupid, racist people who are just desperate to get Darky McSocialist out of the White House because they were told he hates America and might have been born in Kenya as part of a vast conspiracy to destroy free enterprise or some stupid shit like that.

Say what you will about Obama, people like him. He's like a nice steak to Romney's protein-based paste. He's not the best you could have but given the alternative the choice isn't even difficult, really. Not if you're a free-thinking person as opposed to a party-line-towing robot.

ReservoirAngel:
Not if you're a free-thinking person as opposed to a party-line-towing robot.

Hate to do it, but I've stumbled upon one of my biggest pet peeves, and I've gotta say something.

One does not TOW the party line. You TOE the party line.

All i'm saying is I believe this is gonna be even closer then 2000 election. I think we might actually the most voter turn out (at least I hope so anyway).

Jeremy Meadows:
All i'm saying is I believe this is gonna be even closer then 2000 election. I think we might actually the most voter turn out (at least I hope so anyway).

It's virtually impossible for this to be closer than the 2000 election.

Tyler Perry:

Jeremy Meadows:
All i'm saying is I believe this is gonna be even closer then 2000 election. I think we might actually the most voter turn out (at least I hope so anyway).

It's virtually impossible for this to be closer than the 2000 election.

What makes you say that? Remember while it was a close election the numbers of turnouts were still low. Higher number of voters will make every vote count even more this year.

Jeremy Meadows:

Tyler Perry:

Jeremy Meadows:
All i'm saying is I believe this is gonna be even closer then 2000 election. I think we might actually the most voter turn out (at least I hope so anyway).

It's virtually impossible for this to be closer than the 2000 election.

What makes you say that? Remember while it was a close election the numbers of turnouts were still low. Higher number of voters will make every vote count even more this year.

I was referring more to the 0.5% of the popular vote that separated Gore and Bush, which has only been surpassed once.

And the only places higher turnout will mean every vote counts more are in the swing states. My vote in New York counts for bupkus.

Polarity27:

xDarc:
I was looking at an election map here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/election-map-2012/president/

It would seem to me this election really hangs on 5 states and those are Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and... Ohio. I really think Mitt Romney will easily win North Carolina and Florida. They didn't seem all too pleased with him the first time around, barely squeaking out a majority vote in Florida at 51%. That was at the height of everyone being caught up in "hope" and "change." I'd imagine Barack easily slipping a couple points in many states just that the novelty of him has worn off.

Virginians may have elected barack w/ 52.7% majority in the last election, but bush won by 53.7% in 04. Virigina really is a pretty wealthy, expensive, upscale state and I would not be surprised to see them swing back Romney's way this time around.

That really leaves Colorado and Ohio. These could swing either way.

Is anyone from these states on these forums? What's the sentiment there? What do the rest of you think?

Edit: These five would get Romney the 270+ electoral votes to win.

I'm from Virginia and I'm not seeing VA going for Romney. Particularly the "wealthy, upscale" part here in NoVA-- NoVA has been trending Democrat for a while now, the only time they lose is when people just stay home. And VA hasn't been affected quite as badly by the downturn as other states (says me as I'm hoping my husband keeps his job when the latest contract runs out).

While the DC area is blue Obama would also need richmond and some of the tidewater area. The black population was at it's highest voter turnout ever but Obama's policies haven't been targeting minorities the way they thought he would in 08'. I know that the black population won't be voting Romney but would they vote at all?

This might get balanced by the general apathy for Romney by conservatives in the state but I'm seeing Virginia as a tossup till election day.

Obama's still got the edge but there's still potholes that could make it swing either way.

I think Romney's actually doing as well as he can given the situation. Although once it gets into crunch time I have a feeling that something's gonna be thrown for a loop. With the nastiness of the political atmosphere... the super-PACs turning this election into a money binge...

I have a feeling maybe not Romney's camp directly, but someone that supports him is gonna cross a line with a commercial or something.

The debates could be back and forths on the economy but what else is Romney gonna win on? More intrusive family values stuff like abortion and gay marriage when the old fashioned seniors that still believe in that crap keep dying off more every day? Foreign dealings when Obama has made the U.S. respectable again with our allies and decisive against our enemies like Osama?

Tyler Perry:

Jeremy Meadows:

Tyler Perry:

It's virtually impossible for this to be closer than the 2000 election.

What makes you say that? Remember while it was a close election the numbers of turnouts were still low. Higher number of voters will make every vote count even more this year.

I was referring more to the 0.5% of the popular vote that separated Gore and Bush, which has only been surpassed once.

And the only places higher turnout will mean every vote counts more are in the swing states. My vote in New York counts for bupkus.

You guys really need to change your electoral system.

theonewhois3:

Tyler Perry:

Jeremy Meadows:

What makes you say that? Remember while it was a close election the numbers of turnouts were still low. Higher number of voters will make every vote count even more this year.

I was referring more to the 0.5% of the popular vote that separated Gore and Bush, which has only been surpassed once.

And the only places higher turnout will mean every vote counts more are in the swing states. My vote in New York counts for bupkus.

You guys really need to change your electoral system.

It's a catch-22. The electoral college over-represents smaller states; however, if it weren't for it, then the elections would basically be decided entirely by large population centers.

Tyler Perry:

ShadowKatt:
That being the case, I expect they will go to any length to win, right down to rigging the election.

Oh, stop it. Please. How, pray tell, are the Democrats supposed to "rig the election"? This ought to be interesting.

They'll try to get POOR PEOPLE TO VOTE. Don't you know that's against the law?

arbane:

Tyler Perry:

ShadowKatt:
That being the case, I expect they will go to any length to win, right down to rigging the election.

Oh, stop it. Please. How, pray tell, are the Democrats supposed to "rig the election"? This ought to be interesting.

They'll try to get POOR PEOPLE TO VOTE. Don't you know that's against the law?

Aw, come on! I was hoping he would say getting dead people to vote or something, so we could have another round of Imaginary Voter Fraud Bingo.

Tyler Perry:

It's a catch-22. The electoral college over-represents smaller states; however, if it weren't for it, then the elections would basically be decided entirely by large population centers.

Oh that doesn't mean there can't be a better system, but yeah I get what you're saying. I think the real issue here is the redundancy of states. The U.S will not, however, for a very long time, be winding down any state rights or powers.

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